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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread


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First cherry of the year.

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: 
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near 
the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple 
of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the 
eastern Pacific.  Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, 
this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it 
moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of 
southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize 
during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, 
southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday.  
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys 
and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this 
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Bucci

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

The EPS is now squarely on board with tropical genesis occurring with the current wave in the eastern Atlantic.

It’s early climo wise for action in the MDR and east/central Caribbean, but guidance across the board shows a relatively favorable upper level environment with dramatically reduced trade winds. Anomalous for this time of year.

The wave itself is convectively active, but disorganized. The NHC now has a lemon on it. 
 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions could become conducive for gradual development of this 
system by early next week as the disturbance moves westward at 
around 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Hagen/Berg

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Euro comes in hot with development of the wave in 5 days. Operational guidance at this range should certainly be taken with a grain of salt, but given the awfully favorable upper level environment, I do think there’s greater than 50% odds for another named storm to develop next week.

I’m interested. With the wave being so low in latitude, the odds of it hitting something are high. Watch the amplitude of the ridge…

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jun 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues 
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This activity has 
become a bit more concentrated this evening, and environmental 
conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next 
few days. A tropical depression could form by early next week as 
this system moves westward at around 15 mph over the tropical 
Atlantic. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin

 

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Tropical Atlantic:
The low-level wind field associated with a tropical wave located 
over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean has become better defined 
today, but the wave is only producing limited shower activity.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this 
system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form 
during the early to middle part of next week.  This system is 
forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical 
Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across 
the southern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

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I really want to find time to do a tropical update. Ugh.

Recon has arrived at the invest. This one is more organized now that it’s moving past 50W, but we’ll see if it’s enough to to get designated. It’s going to pass very low, almost scraping South America, which is pretty uncommon, en route to Central America. 

Meanwhile the gfs continues to show development of the wave after 94L. I’m fact the 12z run takes it into Florida next week as a weak TS. The environment is much more hostile after 94L so grain of salt there. Ensembles have been showing a signal though, hence the lemon issued today.

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

PTC Two coming at 5pm.

The Atlantic looks very unJune-like with all of the convection and AOIs in multiple locations (two in the MDR). The only sign that it's still very early in the season is the fact that all of the convection in the MDR is at or below 10N in latitude owing to the ITCZ still being well south of 10N.

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Tropical Overview--6/28/22

It has been a quiet June, but as we turn the page from June to July, an unusually favorable environment has allowed for multiple areas of interest to pop up. 

Let's start with the Atlantic before turning closer to home. 

Y2lyuaw.png

To be clear--this is still a time of year that is generally hostile to tropical genesis, especially out in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic and Caribbean. In fact, the eastern Caribbean is notoriously called "the graveyard" this time of year because of hostile wind shear.

This time however, there are a couple of factors that have opened the Atlantic, briefly, for business. 

First and foremost, we see a dramatic drop in wind shear that has allowed for PTC Two and the second Atlantic area of interest to have a shot at development. 

EHtzFFK.gif

In addition to this, we saw the passage of a CCKW, which enhanced convection across the basin and helped PTC Two as it exited the ITCZ. 

KLKNjGZ.gif

This kind of shear in the MDR and especially eastern Caribbean is unheard of for this time of year. As you can see, the high shear is displaced to the north, which has implications on the two Atlantic areas of interest. A sprawling ridge over the Atlantic will shunt PTC Two to the west and put it on a rare collision course with South America before making landfall in Central America. In fact, the forecast track is suppressed so far south it seems possible that this system could cross over relatively intact into the Pacific. Because PTC Two stays south, even with land interaction it is unlikely to encounter the kind of shear that would inhibit it from intensifying to near hurricane strength before landfall in Nicaragua. 

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On the other hand, the wave behind PTC Two is likely to find a weakness that will propel it further northwest, into the shear buzzsaw zone.

Although a wave axis may stay intact, the models forecast strong shear that is likely to keep the second wave from being a significant player. Still worth watching, but only with a casual eye. Not much analysis needed on that one at this time. 

As you can see from the wave propagation plot above, we're likely to go to a suppressed phase shortly, that will likely close the window for MDR development until we start ramping up toward the climatological peak of the season and CV season. 

atl_climo_ns_jul.jpg

   atl_climo_ns_aug.jpg

 

Given the impressive expanse of the warmth thus far (though MDR SSTs remain meh) and ongoing La Nina conditions, I expect the basin to really go into high gear once we get to August, higher than what climo would suggest. In fact, looking at the TCHP chart compared to other years at this time, the warmth we see in the Gulf, Caribbean, and SW Atlantic is significant. Even if waves aren't ready for prime time in the MDR, conditions look generally favorable closer to the coast. But I'm getting ahead of myself...

2022178at.jpg

 

Closer to home, we have Invest 95L, which was designated this morning near the Texas coast. The guidance has forecasted some weak development, and given current SSTs and relatively low shear (though still there) development is possible. 

Ee6zp39.png

There is an apparent low level center that has developed, and some shallow convection.

giphy.gif?cid=790b7611356fdb37004455bc46

You can see a clear LLC, but it's unclear how durable that will be. If it is durable, it increases the odds of tropical cyclone genesis. However, there's shear that evident on this loop, as well as some dry air that may inhibit development. There's not much analysis to do here: this invest needs time, which is in short supply, but if we start seeing convection and pressure drops over the apparent center, the odds of development go up. Heavy rain is the biggest threat here. 

Overall, we see a few areas of interest as we close out June, which is unusual. This should be short lived, especially in the MDR region, as the basin continues to slowly come to a boil. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

While all of the areas of interest in the Atlantic have underperformed, thanks to @nwohweatherI can weenie out on this. 

This is actually from the Bahamas MCS that slowly drifted up the coast over the last few days. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b76112375bcdd1b7ee097f4

It's just so well defined and convection appears to be strengthening over the Gulf Stream

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