Guest someguy Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z euro still east at 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 The JMA drank the same koolade the GFS did... http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_72HR.gif Reading over some of the weird responses from some posters regarding what HPC said, I cant say I agree with the people who are showing anger/frustration. The weather will do what it wants to do, regardless of what HPC or anyone else says. It doesnt really make any logical sense to spout venom at anyone because its not like HPC can shove it east by what they say. Weather control is probably still a couple of hundred years away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 60 hr same as lats night way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 IMO, the shift on the 12z GFS was so dramatic that it makes sense to be cautious. In seeking explanations for what accounted for the shift, initialization is one plausible area to look. That does not mean that such errors mainly or completely accounted for the situation, though they could have pushed the model to a more extreme situation even in the face of a real trend toward a deeper, closer solution. That 3 of the last 4 runs of the GFS have been closer to the coast suggests that at least part of the shift is a real trend. The 12z ECMWF's outcome will be interesting. Hence, as one waits to see if the later guidance reaffirms the 12z GFS, one probably should err on the side of continuity, maybe nudging things just a little to the left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm discouning the euro. I'm riding the Gfs/jma. Deadly combination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 12z euro still east at 48 hrs Well I don't know about the rest of you, but that's all I needed to see. Merry Christmas to all in spite of the latest storm miss to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Wayy east(In comparison to GFS). Good agreement among all but bad data GFS.....should be an eastern route type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 60 hr same as lats night way east Ya it's crap. It will cave tonight again. I promise you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 close but not quite for the mid atl precip never gets above ric Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 THANK YOU HPC FOR CATCHING THIS ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Like I'm going to trust this model now. lets review you thinks its terrible of HPC to catch bad and alert people and now the euro which you loved earlier .... now you dont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 euro has proven not to be trusted enough said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 they probably saw how different it was and did some checking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Well I don't know about the rest of you, but that's all I needed to see. Merry Christmas to all in spite of the latest storm miss to the east. yeah its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 GFS will most likely have a hideous east correction soon. For those clinging to it, brace yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 ok lets review Showing no storm we have NAM UKMET RGEM GGEM SREFS Showing a storm we have GFS which was confirmed to have errors Please step away from your wishes for a minute before making a logic based choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 DENIAL not just a river in Egypt Just wait on the 0z everyone will be like OMG where that come from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 yeah its over hey dt you are prob 1000000% correct, but dont you think the way this storm has been so far on the models, thats a pretty bold call to say yes its over??? I mean just the other day its looked like a blizzard then the models surprised everyone and went ots, now the gfs today brings it back, and all the esembles agree, yes their were some errors, but no guarentees it caused the storm to become a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I'm discouning the euro. I'm riding the Gfs/jma. Deadly combination Shades of Feb 2006? Meh, Im witholding making any decisions until 0z tonight, but it doesnt look very good right now. I'd put the chances of the 12z GFS verifying at like 5% lol. 0z runs are around 48 hrs before the start of the "storm" and models often lock in at that point, though with this complex pattern who knows. Besides, you never know, we might get a Christmas present from Mother Nature this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Difference now is that we are within 48 - 60 hours of the event. Not saying it can't change but drastic changes are not likely within this range. Too much stacked against us! hey dt you are prob 1000000% correct, but dont you think the way this storm has been so far on the models, thats a pretty bold call to say yes its over??? I mean just the other day its looked like a blizzard then the models surprised everyone and went ots, now the gfs today brings it back, and all the esembles agree, yes their were some errors, but no guarentees it caused the storm to become a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Dont look now 12z CRAS looks like GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 ok lets review Showing no storm we have NAM UKMET RGEM GGEM SREFS Showing a storm we have GFS which was confirmed to have errors Please step away from your wishes for a minute before making a logic based choice. That's not necessarily true. The NAM does show accumulating snow for most, just not a huge storm like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 ok lets review Showing no storm we have NAM UKMET RGEM GGEM SREFS Showing a storm we have GFS which was confirmed to have errors Please step away from your wishes for a minute before making a logic based choice. How dare you disregard the CRAS?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 A lot of models that were out to sea have trended west...Don't give up yet guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Dont look now 12z CRAS looks like GFS was this corrupted too though?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Dont look now 12z CRAS looks like GFS I won't look..Cras is called ass for a reason..NGM was better ..has it ever been right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I won't look..Cras is called ass for a reason..NGM was better ..has it ever been right? i thought they discontinued the NGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 jb agrees with GFS despite the initization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 the euro is not meant to be used as short term model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 jb agrees with GFS despite the initization Of course he does - that guy agrees with anything that shows a storm. Gets more eyeballs to his website than "no snow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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