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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?


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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

StormTotalSnow.jpg

One last ridiculous fantasy map for the year. Ugh. Rochester isn’t getting more than an inch or two on the grass at best. The bands tomorrow will be ridiculously cellular and the snow will struggle mightily to accumulate. 

I am however eyeing cattaraugus county though. Can holiday valley salvage a decent day with a little elevation?  They are right on the cusp according to the point and click. I’d make one last run if I knew they could get 6. 

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4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

One last ridiculous fantasy map for the year. Ugh. Rochester isn’t getting more than an inch or two on the grass at best. The bands tomorrow will be ridiculously cellular and the snow will struggle mightily to accumulate. 

I am however eyeing cattaraugus county though. Can holiday valley salvage a decent day with a little elevation?  They are right on the cusp according to the point and click. I’d make one last run if I knew they could get 6. 

Most likely elevation based event. Overnight tonight I think we pick up a few inches even here. But Boston Hills/Colden/Perrysburg likely get 8-12". I was thinking about going skiing tomorrow if they pick up 6-10". 

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Late this afternoon through Sunday a broad surface low stretching
from Quebec to Maine will consolidate and drift east into the Gulf
of Saint Lawrence. An area of deep wrap around moisture will cross
the eastern Great Lakes tonight and Sunday morning, while ongoing
cold advection cools the column. Deep saturation and low level flow
normal to the Chautauqua Ridge will produce a near ideal setup for
strong upslope enhancement across the higher terrain east of Lake
Erie. Forecast soundings show a deep 5-7K foot thick dendritic
growth zone tonight through Sunday morning. The airmass will grow
cold enough for lake enhancement as well from late tonight through
Sunday. The same will occur east of Lake Ontario across the Tug
Hill, although flow will veer more WNW by Sunday, with less
favorable lake enhancement following the initial development
tonight. Outside of the main upslope areas east of the lakes, expect
periods of snow tonight through Sunday and possibly a few meandering
bands of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay lake effect to produce minor
accumulations.

As far as accumulations go, the 00Z high-res guidance that handles
smaller scale upslope better than global guidance, continued an
upward trend, and this raises the chances of warning criteria being
reached for the higher terrain east of Lake Erie. Expect total
accumulations in the 8-14" range along a narrow zone of the
Chautauqua Ridge from Sherman to Perrysburg, and 7-12" across the
Boston Hills and the ridges of western Wyoming County. There will be
far less snow along the Lake Erie shore (including the Thruway), and
steadily decreasing snow inland from the Chautauqua Ridge. East of
Lake Ontario, expect 6-10" across the Tug Hill tonight through
Sunday. The setup is not quite as favorable here, so we have opted
for a higher end Advisory for the Tug Hill, although a small area of
warning criteria snow is possible near the Oswego/Jefferson/Lewis
County triple point. Outside of these two areas, expect
accumulations of 2-4" tonight through Sunday in most areas. The one
caveat, if a Lake Huron band were to stall over the Niagara Frontier
or south of Lake Ontario higher amounts are possible.
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Just now, rochesterdave said:

It’s so ridiculous. When will they learn?!? I totally agree with your sentiments above- we’ll be lucky to get an inch or two in the grass. 
I was at Holiday Valley last Friday and it was getting very thin. Are they even open?

Yeah today is spring fest with pond skimming. Not sure the trail count but obviously greatly reduced. I think it’s shitty they are still charging full price. $93 bucks tomorrow. Ooof

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see 12"+ at Perrysburg easily. Perfect setup for them, lots of moisture, open lakes, and crazy deltas for this time of year. Going with a 15" total down there. 

I finally drove down that way. Headed down 219 on my way to Ellicotville. And then headed East out of EV on my way home. Crazy terrain! And super convenient to Buffalo. I’m surprised it’s not more developed. Is it crazy expensive? 
Beautiful land marred by horrible trailer trash attitudes. Junk abounds outside of most of the residences. All Trump voters who look down on urban blight. Lol. 

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5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Yeah today is spring fest with pond skimming. Not sure the trail count but obviously greatly reduced. I think it’s shitty they are still charging full price. $93 bucks tomorrow. Ooof

Prices are out of hand. I had access to a free ticket last week. I’ll check if I can still get it. 
Sugarbush was 195.00/day. 

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45 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I finally drove down that way. Headed down 219 on my way to Ellicotville. And then headed East out of EV on my way home. Crazy terrain! And super convenient to Buffalo. I’m surprised it’s not more developed. Is it crazy expensive? 
Beautiful land marred by horrible trailer trash attitudes. Junk abounds outside of most of the residences. All Trump voters who look down on urban blight. Lol. 

I'm not sure why its not developed. Its more developed west of Ellicottville vs east. There isn't much east besides maybe Utica. The west locations of Ellicottville are where the best snow is along the ridges. From Perrysburg to Boston to Springville and points just south. Case in point look at map below, all that purple is above 1k feet elevation, most above 1500.

May be an image of map, sky and text that says 'FIRST WARNING WEATHER IT SNOW OUTLOOK LATE TODAY SUNDAY 0-1" 1-2" 2-4" 4-6" SOLATED HIGHER TOTALS DUNKIRK ERIE ASHTABULA 8-12" 12-18" 18+" JAMESTOWN CUB 8-12" EDINBORO ELAND BRADFORD 4-6"' MEADVILLE TIDIOUTE KANE EYHUDSON 2-4" CHAMPION FREDONIA'

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NWS has Roc getting 4” as ‘expected’. My P+C for Pittsford is 3-8”.
I can’t stress enough what a horrible set up this is for Rochester. High winds. Cellular/ diurnal nature of the squalls. Marginal temps.  Trajectory isn’t even good. I’m expecting the big goose egg. Zip. 

Agree with Buf. Springville will win this easy. Buffalo, IAG, Syracuse all will get nada. Nuisance crap. Fun to watch . 
Oh, and my normal caveat- I’m terrible at this. Chances are better than average that I’ll be wrong again. 

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