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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?


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Kbgm


The long term is looking unsettled and cold. 850 mb temperatures
likely stay below freezing with temps as low as -18C late Sunday
into Monday so highs will struggle to get to near freezing Sunday
and Monday. 500 mb height anomaly means in the NAEFS area already 2
sigma below climatology but there is still some spread in the
ensembles on where the coldest pocket of air will be so left temps
to the NBM rather than lowering the temperatures closer to the 25
percentile for the late weekend into early next week. Also with the
longer days and higher sun angle it is starting to get difficult to
get temperatures to stay in the low to mid 20s during the afternoon.
Forecast soundings show a shallow cloud depths with the cold air and
thus likely breaks of sun allowing some heating and temperatures
likely slightly warmer than what models are showing for Sunday and
Monday afternoons. Lake effect snow is also a concern with the ice
cover mostly gone with the recent warmth and the lake temperatures
up ever so slightly so chances of precipitation were raised to a
chance from Saturday afternoon into Monday morning. Wind direction
and band organization is uncertain at this time though some
accumulating snow is likely somewhere across the Finger Lakes region
into northern CNY. A slow warming trend begins mid next week
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5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

April 20th of last year

 

That was an interesting couple weeks of weather.  End of March had some good thunderstorms and a high wind event.  Early April we had a really interesting fog event then that heat wave.  Was going through my pictures and actually had the kids outside playing with the sprinkler on an 82degree early April day. Lake Erie got up to the mid 40s by mid April and then bam had the 5” of snow on 4/20.  Don’t really care if we’re in for miserable weather just give me something fun to observe.  

167FB367-B870-4A2A-92A2-DEA8FA9EFEA0.jpeg

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Good thing the only things that have bloomed are the crocuses and early Spring flowers. Mighty cold air on the way!

Just when the ice had melted off the pool cover. Sigh.  Fortunately there will be little snowfall accumulation here.

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15 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

As I typed, it's like an angel on one shoulder and the devil on the other.

Buffalowx on one shoulder saying, "Don't do it! Stay away!" and Blue Moon on the other saying, "Type! type! You know you waaaaant to!"

I gave that place up for Lent. ;)

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Best chance at little accumulation looks to be early Sunday morning.. This is also more of a "lake enhancement" regime so it's hard to trust the globals or any model really lol

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16 (2).png

sn10_acc.us_ne - 2022-03-23T123621.214.png

Ggem 12z was solid as well, starts out with some westerly enhancement veering northwesterly..

sn10_acc.us_ne - 2022-03-23T134108.627.png

snku_acc.us_ne - 2022-03-23T134435.293.png

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A more potent shortwave crossing our region Saturday will bring an
even cooler airmass for Saturday Night, with temperatures at 850 hPa
dropping down towards the negative teens Celsius by periods end.
While a mix of rain and snow is possible Saturday evening, this
cooler airmass will promote snow showers across our region, with
lake effect snow by late Saturday Night. Several inches of snow,
especially across SW NYS remains possible by late Saturday Night.

 

Cyclonic flow in an anomalously deep upper level trough will be
over the Northeast Sunday. A cold front will usher in cold air
across the eastern Great Lakes leading to much below normal
temperatures for the start of next week. Some guidance, as low as -
20C at 850mb by Monday morning will most likely fuel lake effect
snow showers across the eastern Great Lakes with concentration
southeast of the Lakes. Accumulating snow is possible Sunday through
Monday morning. The core of the cold air will move east as the
trough becomes negatively tilted off the New England coast. Snow
showers will taper off Monday and a slow warming trend will occur
into early next week.
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1 hour ago, Revracer800 said:

Nothing worse than these damp, cloudy spring day's, and these last few cold springs suck. So ready for warmer and sunny weather. My yard is a disaster and needs cleaning up bad but yard is a swamp lol. This weekend is gonna be horrible. 

Yep. It’s the worst. This is the problem with snowless Marches. I guess my expectations were overly influenced by the few snowy Marches we’ve had. This is, unfortunately, more typical. 

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5 hours ago, Revracer800 said:

Nothing worse than these damp, cloudy spring day's, and these last few cold springs suck. So ready for warmer and sunny weather. My yard is a disaster and needs cleaning up bad but yard is a swamp lol. This weekend is gonna be horrible. 

Seriously...just get rid of the grass and go for waterfront property... ;)

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