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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?


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To close out the end of the work week and last throughout the next
weekend, a deep upper level trough will park itself across the
eastern half of the contiguous United States. While this trough
remains quasi-stagnant, multiple mid-level shortwave troughs will
dive southeast towards the area from central Canada supporting
multiple surface cold fronts to push across the region Friday
through Sunday, which will overall support a very active weather
pattern through Sunday with a conglomeration of precipitation types.
P-types will range from rain to a mix of rain snow to all snow.
Model guidances continue to agree upon the last cold frontal passage
Saturday night/early Sunday to be the coldest push of arctic cold
air, and therefore expect all precipitation Saturday night into
Sunday to be all snow.

Upper air pattern will begin to shift late in the weekend and into
the start of the new work week, which will support a surface high
and some much welcomed drier weather to the region Monday.
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Maybe we catch an inch or two sat night/Sunday morning lol Temps are right around freezing when precipitation starts but drops pretty quickly overnight..It's going to be chilly either way, might as well have a little snow lol

sn10_acc.us_ne - 2022-03-21T192545.194.png

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Looking at the patterns and it’s very obvious that we’ve flipped to a spring pattern. Lows jumping around. Retrograding and spinning up on themselves with multiple vortex centers. P-type is a guessing game mostly determined by elevation. Accumulations very unlikely in the valleys. 
I don’t see much hope of anything meaningful. Just crappy weather. Disappointing March to be sure. Back to a C+

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57 minutes ago, Buckeyes_Suck said:

Some needs to add the old chevy "like a rock" commercial music to this.

You can’t beat that kind of advertising!  

“I was driving down the road when my truck and I got tossed around by a tornado.  Almost made me late to dinner!”

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Yeah we have several spokes of energy rotating around the trough..The Ggem sends another one over S/W NY, GFS not so much lol The first"event" is looking to be more of a NW flow/wrap around regime..As it stands now we should see a light accumulation sat night through Sun morning...

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_20 (6).png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_19 (6).png

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Definitely not impossible since Toronto normally sees 2-3" a year in April but winter storm chances in the GTA is normally over by April 1st. Not saying winter itself is over as GTA can easily wake up to a fresh inch of snow and temperatures in the 20s or even a mixed winter weather advisory event where its 2-4" and freezing rain (more rare) but big dog 6-12" winter storm warning amounts 99% of the time don't happen 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

April 20th of last year

 

Yep, you guys for some reason get better April snow compared to GTA. My only guess is elevation for your side? I know over here KW-Orangeville-Barrie can see legit snow 6+ in April but they also have a lot of elevation compared to GTA. 

 

Edit*** Had to find the CTV new article. So the 2-3" snow. Though getting 4-8cm in mid-late April is impressive. 

Environment Canada has issued a weather advisory for Toronto and much of the GTA, warning that the city could see between 4 cm and 8 cm of snow, as well as slippery road conditions, between Tuesday night and Wednesday afternoon.

“Snow will move into the area this evening. Snowfall amounts of 4 to 8 cm are possible by noon on Wednesday, with lower snowfall amounts expected along the shores of Lake Ontario,”

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