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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


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14 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Can we talk about easy it must be to be a meteorologist in New England? Like close your eyes and Sleep during you shift easy…. They have nothing to look at except track…. They always have Cold Air, They never have Mixing issues or CAD (lol)…. It literally must be as simple as “ohh hey it’s Cold out, here comes liquid yep big storm 16-24” maybe more that’s the only reason I’m watching the track back to you Bob for sports” no this post isn’t me whining it’s making fun of them 

I know you're kidding around, but any big wrapped up low that passes close to the coast, they worry about mixing. Small changes in track can have huge differences in totals, especially for areas right near the water. The cape can get nothing and just inland can get 12"+. 

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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I know you're kidding around, but any big wrapped up low that passes close to the coast, they worry about mixing. Small changes in track can have huge differences in totals, especially for areas right near the water. The cape can get nothing and just inland can get 12"+. 

Yeah, I think being a met in Jackson Hole is more apt. They just snow. It snows by accident in June, lol.

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4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I know you're kidding around, but any big wrapped up low that passes close to the coast, they worry about mixing. Small changes in track can have huge differences in totals, especially for areas right near the water. The cape can get nothing and just inland can get 12"+. 

No I completely agree I just meant when it comes to difficulty I think NC Mets have top 5 hardest job in the country I think some forum Weenie could become a Met in New England

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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

RGEM is real close to a solution that work well for most. I think no matter what happens NE NC will fair the best

500hv.conus.png

I agree- I think the massive runs from a few days ago (we all knew it was too good to be true) are off the table but if the low gets cranking we could see a minor event across the area with more in the snow belt (Elizabeth City). In other words, I’m thinking this has a low risk to be high impact but may not be without risk to be a low-moderate snow event at this juncture. Certainly a lot of options on the table

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The RGEM run was setting up nicely for a large chunk on this board and after the last 2 events that carry’s some weight. Would not shock me to see the globals pull the developing comma head back into piedmont areas tonight. It’s more in line with climo and without blocking seems even more possible assuming the phase occurs to our south and not right off Hatteras. This one’s alive folks very much so 

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1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

My best understanding is we need a weaker Northern stream and earlier phasing with the Southern stream, correct?

yeah the phase has been too late and more partial in recent runs.

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2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The QPF is crap on this run but not sure if I am fully buying that.

One would think a 995 low sitting just off hatteras would generate more than 0.10-0.25” for piedmont locations but the transfer could shaft some areas outside the coastal plain. Big time improvement though

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Geez, with the way the GFS looked at H5, u would think the qpf and everything would look better than what the surface map showed.

Doesn't make any sense and I checked the upper levels for moisture and that isn't lacking. I would think there would be more banding for sure for the eastern half of NC with a 996 low starting to bomb out. The takeaway from this run is the improvement in position etc as NorthHillsWx mentioned.

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Geez, with the way the GFS looked at H5, u would think the qpf and everything would look better than what the surface map showed.

The trough is a bit too positively tilted to throw enough moisture back (at least in the southern Mid-Atlantic). The best bet on this one is for the northern stream to continue to trend a bit stronger/further west. That enables it to capture the southern energy (there a few different ways this could happen though). This would draw in a little more gulf moisture and also result in a quicker phase which would tilt the trough more negative and allow the SLP to track closer to the coast. The chance is there, but again the odds aren't great unless we see some solid trends soon.

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1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

The trough is a bit too positively tilted to throw enough moisture back (at least in the southern Mid-Atlantic). The best bet on this one is for the northern stream to continue to trend a bit stronger/further west. That enables it to capture the southern energy (there a few different ways this could happen though). This would draw in a little more gulf moisture and also result in a quicker phase which would tilt the trough more negative and allow the SLP to track closer to the coast. The chance is there, but again the odds aren't great unless we see some solid trends soon.

Yeah that is a good point. I am hoping this 12z run is a pivot point back in our favor.

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11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

One would think a 995 low sitting just off hatteras would generate more than 0.10-0.25” for piedmont locations but the transfer could shaft some areas outside the coastal plain. Big time improvement though

Just glad to see it head in the positive direction instead of the other way right now. 

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