Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[wxsniss]

EPS have > 15 members with 940s-960s near or just inside BM

[brooklynwx99]

the phasing is as clear as day on a five day mean

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

EPS have > 15 members with 940s-960s near or just inside BM

Absolutely unreal. I don't think I've seen something like this before.

[Henry's Weather]

[wxsniss]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the phasing is as clear as day on a five day mean

Yeah very strong signal... and exactly where I highlighted it on the 0z OP run ~hr 120-126

12z OP run seems like the outlier

Guidance honing in on a big one... get rest folks, exciting week ahead!

[George001]

Is this is a Miller A or Miller B? It appears to have both significant northern stream energy and southern stream energy. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Absolutely unreal. I don't think I've seen something like this before.

I forgive the weather gods for the last 4 years if this happens...completely and utterly forgiven, and well worth every ankle grab that I have endured.

Yes, 'mam....thank you ma nature, may I have a another-

[40/70 Benchmark]

FIYYYYYYYYAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!! HERE ARE THE DEMONS!

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Have some gradient on the GEM LOL 1" to 30" over 15 miles....bitches be dealing some finishing moves in se MA on that run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, George001 said:

Is this is a Miller A or Miller B? It appears to have both significant northern stream energy and southern stream energy. 

I would say more Miller B, but somewhat of a hybrid.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would say more Miller B, but somewhat of a hybrid.

Looks like this might be big out this way too.  Someone in the NYC forum said it has a Feb 1978 feel to it and I compared it to Boxing Day 2010

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have never seen an ensemble mean that intense....this may rival my drift records from March 14, 1993....just violating the atmosphere in every way imaginable. Drifts several feet high and Ginxy and the dogs just floating past ice bergs in area sounds from the tides....clinging to terds like life buoys.

[tim123]

When are euro ensembles out?

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That's awful

Who sleeps through KU events ?

Uhm if they occur mostly at night there's nothing worth seeing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks like this might be big out this way too.  Someone in the NYC forum said it has a Feb 1978 feel to it and I compared it to Boxing Day 2010

Boxing day closed further west.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, tim123 said:

When are euro ensembles out?

They match the OP.

NO SNOW FOR ROCHESTER 

[tim123]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They match the OP.

NO SNOW FOR ROCHESTER 

It will.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

It will.

Oh, well in that case....can't argue with psychosis....all you can do is diagnose it-

Good on ya, tiny tim.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, tim123 said:

Take that and move it west 300 miles.

Nothing really keeping it from moving 100 miles west at least-- and with 5 days to go, it probably will.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Nothing really keeping it from moving 100 miles west at least-- and with 5 days to go, it probably will.

 

Not so sure....the western most outliers actually came a bit east from 18z....now there is one near Boston, as opposed to NYC.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

I like where it is now. 100 miles west is easy to do at this point

yup 5 days to go and there is a usual trend west with these.  20 miles per day for 5 days?  I can walk that distance

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

EPS have > 15 members with 940s-960s near or just inside BM

the furthest west this can go is likely over the eastern end of LI....I dont think it gets that far west, but just inside or right over the BM is probably more likely than going east of the BM.....remember the stronger this gets the more likely it is to be on the western side of the ensembles.

 

[tim123]

Wouldn't take much to move this west alot. All about how sharp trough is diving into upper mid west and lakes. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

the furthest west this can go is likely over the eastern end of LI....I dont think it gets that far west, but just inside or right over the BM is probably more likely than going east of the BM.....remember the stronger this gets the more likely it is to be on the western side of the ensembles.

 

This I agree with. I don't see it trucking in near the jersey shore, though. I think near LI is probably the closest it could come.

[tim123]

Just need to go a week in past and see what happened

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not so sure....the western most outliers actually came a bit east from 18z....now there is one near Boston, as opposed to NYC.

But the snowfall numbers seem to have gone up.

the furthest west this can go is likely over the eastern end of LI....I dont think it gets that far west (thats where the westernmost ensemble members are on the new Euro), but just inside or right over the BM is probably more likely than going east of the BM.....remember the stronger this gets the more likely it is to be on the western side of the ensembles.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Wouldn't take much to move this west alot. All about how sharp trough is diving into upper mid west and lakes. 

It won't go  "a lot" there isn't enough time for that.... but getting it just inside the BM should be doable.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This I agree with. I don't see it trucking in near the jersey shore, though. I think near LI is probably the closest it could come.

Yeah I like the idea of a Low track between say Block Island and Nantucket....let's see if that happens.

 

[George001]

The biggest blizzard in the last decade for my area was Feb 2013, which deepened to 968 mb at its peak. The euro as well as many of its ensembles have the low deepening even more than that. This has the potential to be a historic blizzard, even stronger than Feb 2013 and possibly even Feb 1978. The crazy thing about that Euro run is it wasn’t even a direct hit and still gave eastern mass 2+ feet. Imagine how much it would be with a 940s mb low over Nantucket or the outer cape instead of se of the benchmark!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

It won't go  a "a lot" there isn't enough time for that.... but getting it just inside the BM should be doable.

 

Yea, he and reality have parted ways....been there plenty past few years. I think you and I are on the same page. This is huge storm....deform band will probably be well west of me even if it comes near BM.