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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

Bubbler86

By Bubbler86,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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MAG5035
MAG5035

We can debate how far into PA the warm air aloft punches but I simply do not buy the NAM’s expansive freezing rain.    This isn’t really a setup for a deep swath of ice IMO, the high moves east as thi

MAG5035
MAG5035

Some updated thoughts on the pattern. The quoted above was the large post I made back on Jan 28th for reference and review. First off that was at the time, in the 5-7 day range of what was for most in

stormtracker
stormtracker

Seems as tho the thread was accidentally deleted by the author...ahem @Bubbler86    Anyway, I restored it and merged

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am going to start blocking people who say that.  LOL

Me as well. NAM is useful as long as you understand it's biases. 

1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said:

It would be nice to grab even a small event since it sounds like we may be punting a chunk of mid-December.  A couple hours of light snow and widespread 1-3 would be fine with me!    Onto the Icon and GFS.

Exactly. In this pattern, we have no business getting snow this week. It's going to take some luck and perfect timing to pull it off. If it snows even a little, enjoy the heck out of it. 

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I bash the NAM more out of sentimentality.  It could certainly be useful if it’s discounted in areas...like it’s snowfall maps verbatim.  I’m a weenie so I’m going to look at it every cycle and hug it to death when it goes bonkers.

In January 2016 most models were showing around 1.5 -2' of snow across our area. Then the NAM started depicting amounts we all thought were ridiculous...like up to 40" with a bullseye on the I-81 corridor in Cumberland county. 

The rest was history. Some parts of Cumberland county and surrounding areas approached 40". Not only was the NAM the closest in regards to amounts, it got the bullseye perfect. 

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My point and click if for 1". (but only a 50% chance of anything) 

I have a 40 percent of snow showers, no accumulation. 

I hate wind too - gonna be lots of guts into the 40s later this afternoon and early evening. 

Our flight out is tomorrow am and the plane we leave on lands here at 10:30 p.m. I"m skeptical that plane actually takes off for here with gusts at 45. It's not a pure crosswind, but it's somewhat close with the runway orientation. 

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GrandmasterB

GrandmasterB

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

In January 2016 most models were showing around 1.5 -2' of snow across our area. Then the NAM started depicting amounts we all thought were ridiculous...like up to 40" with a bullseye on the I-81 corridor in Cumberland county. 

The rest was history. Some parts of Cumberland county and surrounding areas approached 40". Not only was the NAM the closest in regards to amounts, it got the bullseye perfect. 

It can certainly score its wins from time to time.  There are probably other events where it did the same as your example (which is a sample size of one).  However, in many events it’s going to overdo QPF by 20-40%.  That it does consistently.  It can also have run to run swings outside of 48 hours that are significant.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Sorry for the crappy paste but I’d sign that right now.  Too bad it’s the NAM though.

Definately a nice uptick in qpf.  I, like bubbles, think the NAM bashing is often overstated.  It's not too dissimilar to other looks right now, and as we have a decent HP location (trending further NE and slightly weaker), it give this think a little room to come north IMO.  My only worry is the how far NW the appreciable qpf gets w/ SLP so far south.    

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Definately a nice uptick in qpf.  I, like bubbles, think the NAM bashing is often overstated.  It's not too dissimilar to other looks right now, and as we have a decent HP location (trending further NE and slightly weaker), it give this think a little room to come north IMO.  My only worry is the how far NW the appreciable qpf gets w/ SLP so far south.    

I believe this is CTP's issue - there simply isn't any qpf with the system regardless of the HP location. 

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Bubbler86

Bubbler86

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21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Me as well. NAM is useful as long as you understand it's biases. 

Exactly. In this pattern, we have no business getting snow this week. It's going to take some luck and perfect timing to pull it off. If it snows even a little, enjoy the heck out of it. 

The NAM has shown the same expansion of the precip into the cold sector for more than 4 runs now.  Out of pocket so cannot do too much research but it has barely budged for at least several runs in a a row. One run was a bit dry over the LSV but the same features were in place.  The MR models performed so poorly over the last week, in respect to the mid week system, it seems to me to be a bad time to bash my Nam.  Ha.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

In January 2016 most models were showing around 1.5 -2' of snow across our area. Then the NAM started depicting amounts we all thought were ridiculous...like up to 40" with a bullseye on the I-81 corridor in Cumberland county. 

The rest was history. Some parts of Cumberland county and surrounding areas approached 40". Not only was the NAM the closest in regards to amounts, it got the bullseye perfect. 

NAM ow

 

1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said:

LOL!  I love the NAM too.  I just love it because it’s given me approximately 178 30” HECS’s over the last 15 years.

In fairness..plenty of GFS snowmaps have come and gone.  Takaway, is its a tool, and one that looks good right now, so weenie rule #1 comes into play.  Hug the one that gives you what you want.  :P

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, canderson said:

I believe this is CTP's issue - there simply isn't any qpf with the system regardless of the HP location. 

You keep wishing this away and you may get your wish, but I think HP trending NE (which fits the pattern IMO), gives this thing room to come north, as there is no big block to the N forcing this south.  I think a north trend is likely based on pattern.  Just my .02's tho

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, canderson said:

I have a 40 percent of snow showers, no accumulation. 

I hate wind too - gonna be lots of guts into the 40s later this afternoon and early evening. 

Our flight out is tomorrow am and the plane we leave on lands here at 10:30 p.m. I"m skeptical that plane actually takes off for here with gusts at 45. It's not a pure crosswind, but it's somewhat close with the runway orientation. 

Do you have someone to watch your cat?

I have a very, very soft spot for kitties. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

For the record (and before the GFS runs) I do think this comes north a bit. We’ve seen it too many times inside of 60 hours that we get a north trend.  I’d rather be rooting for that than trending towards a flatter solution.  And in this case the NAM will have led the way!

I said it last week and will stand (or fall) on it.  NAO is the sponsor of this potential event, as it gives us the window to keep the cold close enough for the midweek.  It spikes up from Wed and beyond.  IF the upward options would have verified, this storm would be headed for Chicago.  

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