Superstorm Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 So is WGAL 1-3" around here.WGAL is 3-5” for border counties.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 10 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Those bands and subsidence zones can't be accurately nuanced at this point, but it's a little concerning to see it over nearly the same area on multiple short term models. Yeah I know what they are. Just joking around. 6z's fixed us up...especially GFS, so i'll hust hug it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, Superstorm said: WGAL is 3-5” for border counties. . Yep sorry I didn't add that but yes they are thanks for pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Where’s our new play by play guru @Cashtown_Coop? Haha 0z Euro This has really come back around nicely for the subforum, with even our IPT folks in the mix for the couple inches now on Euro and some other guidance. Sorry I took the 3rd shift off. I’ll be up all night watching every flake fall 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Sorry I took the 3rd shift off. I’ll be up all night watching every flake fall That is what I am thinking doubt I'll make it all night though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Sorry I took the 3rd shift off. I’ll be up all night watching every flake fall You may see first flakes late afternoon/early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 @MillvilleWx That was a next level write up you have. It’s great that you posted it in here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 hours ago, MAG5035 said: That was one thing that really stuck out to me this week regarding this system, the potential for nice ratios with a nice cold column. Your post really details that nicely This really has went the classic snowstorm route in terms of forecasting. First in the mid-range everything sees it except the GFS, then the GFS finally sees it and everything goes south for a couple days. And now inside 48 hrs the QPF and northern edge has been coming right back up. Thats been my feeling, and I stated a couple days ago. It's just more of a run of the mill event and brings a bit of "normalcy" back to the game. Sorta simplish compared to many events we track. No handoffs or waiting for 500vort to dive in etc.. just a vort riding a boundary. Whatever happens, this was nice to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Thats been my feeling, and I stated a couple days ago. It's just more of a run of the mill event and brings a bit of "normalcy" back to the game. Sorta simplish compared to many events we track. No handoffs or waiting for 500vort to dive in etc.. just a vort riding a boundary. Whatever happens, this was nice to track. And perhaps most importantly, no temp issues throughout the column. No panicking about sneaky warm layers aloft and multiple hours of sleet or changeovers to rain. Just good old fashioned snow. Dendrites baby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said: You think it will be a prolonged one, will the Susquehanna Valley be cold air dammed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Yep thanks Nut for posting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 42 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was not watching for weather, that's for sure. But still interesting to hear what they say. They were pounding home the 1-3". Its a "safe" bet and If anything goes wrong, they can still be right. If someone jackpots at 5-6 (you), they share the anomaly like you are the lucky winner of the jackpot....and you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 12z HRRR throws out a different look, pushing main moisture for our area to the north. Probably not to be trusted, although it certainly wouldn't be the first time we've seen a last second change where things jump north. NAM starting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Its a "safe" bet and If anything goes wrong, they can still be right. If someone jackpots at 5-6 (you), they share the anomaly like you are the lucky winner of the jackpot....and you are. Models are all over the place this AM but some are not good for me....transfer happens and the dreaded snow hole kicks in. Latest HRRR is one. But other depictions suggest any transfer is very late so hard to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: And perhaps most importantly, no temp issues throughout the column. No panicking about sneaky warm layers aloft and multiple hours of sleet or changeovers to rain. Just good old fashioned snow. Dendrites baby. yep. Forgot to mention thermals. Its just an easy peasy snow event. I'll take these anytime we can get them. Even if not big hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: 12z HRRR throws out a different look, pushing main moisture for our area to the north. Probably not to be trusted, although it certainly wouldn't be the first time we've seen a last second change where things jump north. NAM starting now. It sends that WAA over us (as in North of you and I) and we get nothing except some late coastal left overs. Notice how it focuses on that same piece of energy that came off Florida as well as the developing system off Cape May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 Nam moves snow into Harrisburg 6pmish now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It sends that WAA over us (as North of us) and we get nothing except some late coastal left overs. Notice how it focuses on that same piece of energy that came off Florida as well as the developing system off Cape May. I dont follow HRRR much (except looking for trends), but can say that even at go time...I've been less than impressed more than a few times. I know your just pointing out for discussion, but if 12zs major leaguers start showing...then I'd worry a bit more. 6z euro calmed my worries (which are minimal tbh). Guess we'll find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 NAM is on it right now awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Nice panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Bubbles is gettin the get the shaft....in a good way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 HRW.....nice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Whole event I should say for the NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 6, 2022 Author Share Posted January 6, 2022 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Bubbles is gettin the get the shaft....in a good way. No, I am getting the shaft there. Under 2" in that panel. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 moning crew nooners take it west. Cash n Bubbles approve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 Close up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: No, I am getting the shaft there. Under 2" in that panel. LOL see other maps posted....after more coffee pal. Youre good....and much much much better than me.....verbatim. I'm about to push chips in and let the cards fall as they may. its goona snow, and that's all I wanted...didnt care if I was the winner at all. I'm here for the forum.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Close up I sign where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 13 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I dont follow HRRR much (except looking for trends), but can say that even at go time...I've been less than impressed more than a few times. I know your just pointing out for discussion, but if 12zs major leaguers start showing...then I'd worry a bit more. 6z euro calmed my worries (which are minimal tbh). Guess we'll find out soon enough. Agreed. One consistent theme that's starting to develop for the Lancaster area is that we may be waiting a while to see our snow down here. Left watching as the WAA moisture flies just to our north and west for hours on end, before finally getting into the goods around the midnight hour, at which point we should see a couple hours of heavy snow. Every storm throws a few surprises. At this point the only guarantee I see is West Virginia getting pounded ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 6, 2022 Share Posted January 6, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Agreed. One consistent theme that's starting to develop for the Lancaster area is that we may be waiting a while to see our snow down here. Left watching as the WAA moisture flies just to our north and west for hours on end, before finally getting into the goods around the midnight hour, at which point we should see a couple hours of heavy snow. Every storm throws a few surprises. At this point the only guarantee I see is West Virginia getting pounded ha. Bingo. Started seeing the Susqu river wall forming late yesterday on some guidance. As you stated, always winners n loseres, but with an event like this, there isnt a ton of forcing issues, but it may be a reflection of SLP jumpin and jippin....dunno. Like I said, its noise to me at this juncture, but its a possibility. Dont care really. I want snow...i'm getting snow...I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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