Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[pasnownut]

and....back to the regularly scheduled doom n gloom.....

Tellies showing less strength as we move forward, which is likely throwing a wrench into our winter plans.  

enough positives starting to show up to once again reflect persistence of same shit pattern we've been in.  That GOA SLP needs a big push east to bring ridge with it and put trough into central basin and pts. east.  Still think it can happen but it's really up in the air. Recent PNA panel also support same old crap....

[canderson]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

No doubt we are headed for zonal pattern as depicted above.  Concern has to be w/ persistent ridge in central basin and why it wont go away...even w/ neg AO/NAO period upcoming.  Its like the displaced but not denied GOA LP is relentless.  LR guidance suggests they both get bumped, but I'm not sure that they get displaced.  Trying to wrap my head around this conundrum we're in.  Me thinks MJO dive in 7 is what surface pattern is reflecting...and correcting to as well as AO/NAO not staying neg.  Me hopes me is wrong.  

Gotta grab another bevvy....Covid almost gone, n daughter now tests positive tonight.  Son likely will tomorrow.  Wife.....tough cookie.

It's all good.   We'll take our Omni (73.2 of all cases now Omni Bubbles) and deal w/ it.  Unfortunately daughter came home from Denver to see fam/friends....bummer.

 

 

Ugh so sorry. Hopefully symptoms are minor (vaccinated and boosted one’s arm to be milder with this new strain despite it being more contagious). 

[MAG5035]

I think the detriments of our general pattern are quite clear at this point. You have the PNA forecast to dip to like -6 or even lower on all guidance the next few days (older Euro shown). Tonight’s GEFS pretty much the same magnitude

That’s getting into stupid negative territory.. and it only pulls back up to -3ish in the longer range. This is currently the dominant teleconnection signal for us IMO. The decent -NAO developing isn’t enough to counteract something like that on this side of the country. I went pretty in depth into this in my last post a few days ago on page 63 (24 pages ago already!). So that brings the MJO…

Euro is being shown again, but the GFS/GEFS has the same general theme. That’s a whole 15 day forecast stuck in phase 7. Several days ago we had more movement towards or into 8. Now we don’t.. which I think plays into the whole seeing the pattern change 10+ days out “never getting closer”  in range on the operational guidance. Phase 7 for the east isn’t the blowtorch phase that 4-6 is this time of the year, but it is not ideal. I’m applying the DJF average since we are getting close to January… and quite frankly it just fits the current situation better.

Look familiar? 

To refresh on these maps, the one circled on the right is a correlation map. Basically, places on the blue and purple end of the spectrum show a high correlation to the what the temperature pattern shows whereas the reds and oranges indicate a lot of variability. So you can see the east is mostly warm in this phase but not to the extent of 4-6. 

As I see it, I believe the MJO is having a pretty big influence on the overall pattern given that it has been at a pretty decent magnitude.. especially driving that Pac Ridge into Alaska. If you loop through the 500mb on ensemble guidance (like tonight’s 0z GEFS for instance) you’ll see how remarkably stable the significant features are (Pac ridge, western trough, NAO blocking, etc). To me it just sort of all lines up that these things aren’t shifting along with the tropical forcing (MJO) being stuck in Phase 7 and continuing to be forecast to remain there at magnitude. These are pretty anomalous features too, especially on the Pacific side. The NWS in San Diego forecasting 1.5-2” of rain in San Diego metro with 3-4”+ in the surrounding hills from later today through Friday eve is generally not how you run a Nina down in southern Cal. The unsettled and very wet pattern is definitely greatly needed out there although that much rain is going to cause flooding problems in that particular region. 

It’s just how the playing field ended up setting up and there’s not much you can really do about it. If the MJO would’ve decided to take a seat for a month in Phase 8/1 I’d wager we would be having a way different discussion right now. I don’t see us as completely shut out on opportunities, but we’re going to be limited until this pattern gets jolted in some fashion. Even just relaxing the West Coast trough (aka neutralizing the PNA some) would likely help a lot if we keep the -NAO/AO/EPO, which has also been showing longevity in the longer range ensemble forecasts as well. 

 

 

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z Euro, GFS & Canadian each show front end light snow & mix on Monday for CTP.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z GEFS & 0z Canadian ensembles both show the trough extending further to the east by day 10. The southeast ridge is also pushed further south at day 10 on both models.

[Bubbler86]

 

5 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I think the detriments of our general pattern are quite clear at this point. You have the PNA forecast to dip to like -6 or even lower on all guidance the next few days (older Euro shown). Tonight’s GEFS pretty much the same magnitude

That’s getting into stupid negative territory.. and it only pulls back up to -3ish in the longer range. This is currently the dominant teleconnection signal for us IMO. The decent -NAO developing isn’t enough to counteract something like that on this side of the country. I went pretty in depth into this in my last post a few days ago on page 63 (24 pages ago already!). So that brings the MJO…

Euro is being shown again, but the GFS/GEFS has the same general theme. That’s a whole 15 day forecast stuck in phase 7. Several days ago we had more movement towards or into 8. Now we don’t.. which I think plays into the whole seeing the pattern change 10+ days out “never getting closer”  in range on the operational guidance. Phase 7 for the east isn’t the blowtorch phase that 4-6 is this time of the year, but it is not ideal. I’m applying the DJF average since we are getting close to January… and quite frankly it just fits the current situation better.

Look familiar? 

To refresh on these maps, the one circled on the right is a correlation map. Basically, places on the blue and purple end of the spectrum show a high correlation to the what the temperature pattern shows whereas the reds and oranges indicate a lot of variability. So you can see the east is mostly warm in this phase but not to the extent of 4-6. 

As I see it, I believe the MJO is having a pretty big influence on the overall pattern given that it has been at a pretty decent magnitude.. especially driving that Pac Ridge into Alaska. If you loop through the 500mb on ensemble guidance (like tonight’s 0z GEFS for instance) you’ll see how remarkably stable the significant features are (Pac ridge, western trough, NAO blocking, etc). To me it just sort of all lines up that these things aren’t shifting along with the tropical forcing (MJO) being stuck in Phase 7 and continuing to be forecast to remain there at magnitude. These are pretty anomalous features too, especially on the Pacific side. The NWS in San Diego forecasting 1.5-2” of rain in San Diego metro with 3-4”+ in the surrounding hills from later today through Friday eve is generally not how you run a Nina down in southern Cal. The unsettled and very wet pattern is definitely greatly needed out there although that much rain is going to cause flooding problems in that particular region. 

It’s just how the playing field ended up setting up and there’s not much you can really do about it. If the MJO would’ve decided to take a seat for a month in Phase 8/1 I’d wager we would be having a way different discussion right now. I don’t see us as completely shut out on opportunities, but we’re going to be limited until this pattern gets jolted in some fashion. Even just relaxing the West Coast trough (aka neutralizing the PNA some) would likely help a lot if we keep the -NAO/AO/EPO, which has also been showing longevity in the longer range ensemble forecasts as well. 

 

 

 

 

Thanks Mag.  I think it is equally as important to mention that the MJO 15 day discussion is model driven.  Some general thought, 2-4 weeks ago, was that it would drive into 8.  Also based on model data at that point.   Since MJO forecasting capability is very limited at times, it really should not surprise anyone to see it drive into 8 during this upcoming period regardless of current LR predicts.    In English, do not punt winter's first half as of yet.  As most know, the MJO can go backwards at times as well. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Where do I sign for the 6z GFS for Monday?

 

[Blizzard of 93]

This is certainly something to watch and it’s only a few days away.

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Where do I sign for the 6z GFS for Monday?

 

Nice Blizz I am in!

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Nice Blizz I am in!

The High to the north is in a good spot to feed in cold enough air for Wintry precip.

[paweather]

7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The High to the north is in a good spot to feed in cold enough air for Wintry precip.

Yep, just saw that let's hope 12z does the same

[pasnownut]

6 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I think the detriments of our general pattern are quite clear at this point. You have the PNA forecast to dip to like -6 or even lower on all guidance the next few days (older Euro shown). Tonight’s GEFS pretty much the same magnitude

That’s getting into stupid negative territory.. and it only pulls back up to -3ish in the longer range. This is currently the dominant teleconnection signal for us IMO. The decent -NAO developing isn’t enough to counteract something like that on this side of the country. I went pretty in depth into this in my last post a few days ago on page 63 (24 pages ago already!). So that brings the MJO…

Euro is being shown again, but the GFS/GEFS has the same general theme. That’s a whole 15 day forecast stuck in phase 7. Several days ago we had more movement towards or into 8. Now we don’t.. which I think plays into the whole seeing the pattern change 10+ days out “never getting closer”  in range on the operational guidance. Phase 7 for the east isn’t the blowtorch phase that 4-6 is this time of the year, but it is not ideal. I’m applying the DJF average since we are getting close to January… and quite frankly it just fits the current situation better.

Look familiar? 

To refresh on these maps, the one circled on the right is a correlation map. Basically, places on the blue and purple end of the spectrum show a high correlation to the what the temperature pattern shows whereas the reds and oranges indicate a lot of variability. So you can see the east is mostly warm in this phase but not to the extent of 4-6. 

As I see it, I believe the MJO is having a pretty big influence on the overall pattern given that it has been at a pretty decent magnitude.. especially driving that Pac Ridge into Alaska. If you loop through the 500mb on ensemble guidance (like tonight’s 0z GEFS for instance) you’ll see how remarkably stable the significant features are (Pac ridge, western trough, NAO blocking, etc). To me it just sort of all lines up that these things aren’t shifting along with the tropical forcing (MJO) being stuck in Phase 7 and continuing to be forecast to remain there at magnitude. These are pretty anomalous features too, especially on the Pacific side. The NWS in San Diego forecasting 1.5-2” of rain in San Diego metro with 3-4”+ in the surrounding hills from later today through Friday eve is generally not how you run a Nina down in southern Cal. The unsettled and very wet pattern is definitely greatly needed out there although that much rain is going to cause flooding problems in that particular region. 

It’s just how the playing field ended up setting up and there’s not much you can really do about it. If the MJO would’ve decided to take a seat for a month in Phase 8/1 I’d wager we would be having a way different discussion right now. I don’t see us as completely shut out on opportunities, but we’re going to be limited until this pattern gets jolted in some fashion. Even just relaxing the West Coast trough (aka neutralizing the PNA some) would likely help a lot if we keep the -NAO/AO/EPO, which has also been showing longevity in the longer range ensemble forecasts as well. 

 

 

 

 

Great write up Mag and yeah, you seam it together nicely w/ the cause/effect.  I'm concerned at seeing less movement wrt the NAO/AO/PNA signals that were showing a few days ago, as we knew we'd need them to offset the constant ridging here in the east.  Guess we'll see where we head from here, but it's gonna be rough sledding for sure.  

[paweather]

FOX Weather is saying SNOW on Monday!

[pasnownut]

56 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yep, just saw that let's hope 12z does the same

verbatim its just enough antecedent cold that it could work.  That HP needs to hold a bit longer for a better shot at wintery precip, cause we all know cold doesnt hold of late.  Temps may make it a snow/ice to drizzle kinda deal.  Better than nothing right?

[paweather]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

verbatim its just enough antecedent cold that it could work.  That HP needs to hold a bit longer for a better shot at wintery precip, cause we all know cold doesnt hold of late.  Temps may make it a snow/ice to drizzle kinda deal.  Better than nothing right?

Yes, I'll take a couple of inches of snow then drizzle anytime. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The teleconnections, besides the very        -PNA, are still favorable for bringing colder weather to the east. Until this changes, we will need the -PNA to relax at times to allow for the other drivers to bring some cold to the east.

Here are the Euro ensembles showing the   -AO, -NAO & -EPO through the end of 15 days.

[Bubbler86]

22 at 9AM in the 'Ville.  Coldest temp at this time of the day so far this season. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Bottomed out at 23 last night.  THV hit 20, MDT only 28.  Good 'ol Mount Washington came in with the national low at -11.

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

Yes, I'll take a couple of inches of snow then drizzle anytime. 

The 6z GFS also has a storm staying our South on the 3rd.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z GFS also has a storm staying our South on the 3rd.

Plenty of time to move North

[Blizzard of 93]

At the end of the 6z GFS, there is another Winter storm potential with cold air pressing from the Midwest.

Let’s see what 12z has to say.

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

22 at 9AM in the 'Ville.  Coldest temp at this time of the day so far this season. 

 

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Bottomed out at 23 last night.  THV hit 20, MDT only 28.  Good 'ol Mount Washington came in with the national low at -11.

25 was the low here. Up to 28 now.

[paweather]

Hopefully not another day of 12z Torcher 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

Hopefully not another day of 12z Torcher 

Nam is first up with no rain into the LSV into Christmas morning.  That period continues to dry out. 

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nam is first up with no rain into the LSV into Christmas morning.  That period continues to dry out. 

That is good news even though we need the rain. 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

That is good news even though we need the rain. 

If true, our toys will not get wet when Santa drops them off. 

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Nam is first up with no rain into the LSV into Christmas morning.  That period continues to dry out. 

That's been another ongoing theme - the lack of rainfall the past couple of months. 

Imagine if the temps were conducive for snow and every event dried up like our rain chances have?

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

If true, our toys will not get wet when Santa drops them off. 

Good point!

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That's been another ongoing theme - the lack of rainfall the past couple of months. 

Imagine if the temps were conducive for snow and every event dried up like our rain chances have?

Yep, there have been 3 or 4 systems in a row that have started with the "deform band" over us and eventually shifted it north.  NAM is completely dry Christmas.  Just one model but I guess its possible now. 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

 

Northeast Drought Summary

Since the beginning of November, precipitation deficits continue to increase across the Mid-Atlantic. Washington, DC recorded only 1.15 inches of precipitation from Nov 1 to Dec 20. Based on increasing short-term precipitation deficits, 60-day SPI values, 28-day average streamflows, and declining soil moisture, abnormal dryness (D0) was expanded north to include more of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.