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Interior NW & NE Burbs 2022


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Action seems to be ahead for the I84 corridor: Uncertainty for sure, regarding damaging wind Wed afternoon into midday Thursday (mostly likely Thursday morning if occurs),  then maybe???opportunities for advisory snow and ice events between Dec 4-10??

 

Multiple ensemble 850MB wind fields marginal for middle of next week (Nov 30-Dec 1), but close enough for what appears to be a 975-980MB sfc low tracking through the St Lawrence Valley. 

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Good morning Walt  Do you agree that we start to see the pattern changes after then that have been discussed in the main thread? 

argghhhh. I haven't looked too far in advance...  I am disappointed that so far we are not showing much wintry threat between the 4th-10th.

Evolution through the mid month looks favorable re: -NAO. but PNA--- I don't know.  It seems like we're looking for KU situation and that might not show up til 96 hours out...  instead I want to see more southern stream emphasis to the mid-Atlc coast. 

As for -NAO--- GEFS/GEPS look less favorable Christmas-NY. 

So much can change and I sure hope it does.  Am getting a little snow disconsolate with constant inside runners--- but well modeled by CPC.  These winters overall are just not quite as threatening early on,  as I remember just 15 years ago and earlier. 

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I am starting to get interested in winter. Model evolution to the big block helps... even events beginning next week may actually provide some snow and ice. Flurries and spotty 0.1" snow showers begin Thursday morning Dec 1 along the I-84 corridor,  maybe again late Saturday Dec 3...both events with wind gusts preceding the cold shots of 30-45MPH. 

Then next week finally trending a little colder and possibly with a winter weather advisory or two?

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11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I am starting to get interested in winter. Model evolution to the big block helps... even events beginning next week may actually provide some snow and ice. Flurries and spotty 0.1" snow showers begin Thursday morning Dec 1 along the I-84 corridor,  maybe again late Saturday Dec 3...both events with wind gusts preceding the cold shots of 30-45MPH. 

Then next week finally trending a little colder and possibly with a winter weather advisory or two?

My concern in blocky patterns is always if its too strong 

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51 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

My concern in blocky patterns is always if its too strong 

could be and suppress. NO guarantees but I know this is much better than a big WAR.  

 

Hope is soon going to be realized in some way...maybe mostly small?? but I'll take it and in shorter daylight. 

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