Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,108
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Elarey7
    Newest Member
    Elarey7
    Joined

Winter 2021/2022 January Thread


AMZ8990
 Share

Recommended Posts

6z Euro had the wave "riding the front" snow over SE KY and SW VA that I think we've seen on most of the recent model runs, but it also tried to build another wave back over MS toward the end:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76118ee1d4f026d4cf8b18

 

I don't know what I think about this weekend system. Do y'all think this is a typical situation where we can expect a NW trend? If that's the case I like where we are at this range. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z Euro had the wave "riding the front" snow over SE KY and SW VA that I think we've seen on most of the recent model runs, but it also tried to build another wave back over MS toward the end:

giphy.gif?cid=790b76118ee1d4f026d4cf8b18

 

I don't know what I think about this weekend system. Do y'all think this is a typical situation where we can expect a NW trend? If that's the case I like where we are at this range. 

Bob Chill had a good synopsis in the MA forum as to why they could fail in a seemingly perfect pattern because of how progressive the flow is.  I believe it could apply to us as well or anyone a little further inland.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Certainly we can always strike out, but the SER has been there all winter.  I don't think it is going away.  Folks in NE TN know about 200-300 mile shifts in storms this winter.  Anytime there has been the slightest relaxation in the jet, the SER is going to push.  A strike-out for DC is not necessarily a strikeout for us.  In fact, a great pattern here is often the pits or the Mid-Atlantic and NE.  There is always a way to strike out at this latitude.

So here are the ways we can score with a deep trough:

1.  Clipper or northern stream energy w/ no help from the GOM.  Prob our best bet.  Always good to remember that clippers tend to trend northward at the last minute.  

2.  Multi-day overrunning event....look no further than last year.  I might add that event was modeled for NE TN for days, and flipped late to west TN - BIG trend.

3.  Slider

4.  Miller A as the trough arrives and/or departs.

The key is that cold air is now in place.  That has been a problem for the past couple of weeks.  So we exchange our active/wet pattern which has marginal cold for a pattern which has cold in place and we have to deal with suppression - still the same pattern just more cold pushing.  That last scenario is an entirely different way of tracking storms.  In NE TN, we have had to hope the storm doesn't cut.  With these we have to hope they trend NW.  There is an active STJ with a SER which will want to push due to the MJO.  There is cold in place,  I will take my chances.  It could go dry or could be a pattern which produces a lot of snow.  Where the focus has been on middle and west TN for the past couple of weeks, there is a chance the upcoming pattern could favor eastern areas which include Chattanooga, maybe even favor Chattanooga.  The very best winters involved northern stream clippers and systems which trended northwest.  That scenario implies a deep eastern trough which we are about to get.  Could we go 17-18 where the entire cold shot is dry?  Sure, but that actually has not occurred during this pattern which has been firmly established since the great flip of Jan 3rd.  BTW, we have tracked three storms in just two weeks.   Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, but this pattern is exactly that....a pattern(meaning repetition) which has had an active STJ which has trended well north of the original LR numerical model guidance.  

As for Thursday, time of day is what matters....I have not looked at it.  Would likely favor KY and the Plateau as Holston mentions.  If at night, could favor NE TN and SW VA as well.  I have low confidence it brings lower elevations snow.  Looks like cold chasing rain, unless the front checks up

Still waiting to see which piece of energy churns up a storm this weekend or shortly after......

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I should add that the trough will likely create a gradient where storms will ride the boundary of the Arctic/Polar fronts.  Modeling will struggle mightily with setting that boundary.  I would expect that boundary to be north of where current modeling is.  Could it trend southward?  Yep, we have seen it snow in New Orleans during several winters.  That said, the MJO does not favor a suppressed pattern.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That is a storm signal for this weekend for at least the SE corner of TN, northern Alabama, and north Georgia.  One more jog and a good chunk of E TN would be involved.  This past storm trended massive jumps to the NW once it began moving.  @Holston_River_Ramblerwould be interesting to see the move on this one.  It went from nothing at 0z to a significant storm to our east within two runs.  I doubt that is done trending.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

At 0z a lot of that energy for Saturday went through the Straits of Florida at 162 and then to the Bahamas.  Now the energy is sliding across the GOM and the NW shield of precip encompasses most of North Carolina.   It looks to me like modeling is dancing between the first piece of energy on Saturday and the one trailing behind it by a few days.  No way modeling has any of that nailed down.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Mr Bob unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...