Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 23 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: 6z Euro moving toward GFS....for what it's worth with the potential SB/Valentines event.... How so? 6z only goes to 72 hrs? If anything, the euro still wants absolutely nothing to do with this event. Less NS dig, timing way off with vorticity interaction. Guess we are seeing it differently or is one of us looking at the wrong maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How so? 6z only goes to 72 hrs? If anything, the euro still wants absolutely nothing to do with this event. Less NS dig, timing way off with vorticity interaction. Guess we are seeing it differently or is one of us looking at the wrong maps? No expert here but I thought the Euro looked like hell... 26F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How so? 6z only goes to 72 hrs? If anything, the euro still wants absolutely nothing to do with this event. Less NS dig, timing way off with vorticity interaction. Guess we are seeing it differently or is one of us looking at the wrong maps? End or run shortwave is further SW and on the EPS the relative likelihood of 1" has increased....but of course still more to south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Also seeing increased heights in Greenland which is moving the Labrador low into somewhat better position to my amateur eyes.... 2022-02-09_8-38-15.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Since the 6z EC only goes out to 90, this is what you get comparing the 6z GFS to the 0z ECMWF (same time frame) - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 last night's UK is also on team GFS/ICON Still so much time left though and I'm not confident until we see multiple runs of the same thing but it was good that 06z GFS improved upon 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How so? 6z only goes to 72 hrs? If anything, the euro still wants absolutely nothing to do with this event. Less NS dig, timing way off with vorticity interaction. Guess we are seeing it differently or is one of us looking at the wrong maps? doesn't look too far off to me at hour 90, some slight timing differences and as you said less vort interaction but nothing jumps out as massively different. With how fast the flow is right now, I doubt either model has a great read on this event yet. Next 24 hours are going to be crucial as by then all pieces should be well sampled. Euro GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 12z NWS blend of models is more bullish than it was at 6z or 00z on snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 12z GFS is a bit more progressive with the SS wave and as a result it's a bit further east with the coastal. SNJ wins again However, still far from a finished product here. Such a delicate set up, I expect we see pretty decent shifts in all directions these next 24-36 hours. I would be happy with 3.5" though, can't say the Lehigh Valley folks would be happy though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 What happens in January the winter remembers...it really has been an east focused winter weather season. It is a rare season like this....but certainly happy for our east based friends!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The 12z GFS is dragging some little baby guy after it as it moves on out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Atmospheric clone of January 30th minus the north vorts tractor beam that aims it at Boston. Still plenty of time for them to get that beam turned on for 25 more inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Canadian is slightly different takes a track over the Walt Whitman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 Canadian: Inland...dry slot to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Canadian: Inland...dry slot to rain. Hoochie mama comes knocking unexpected lol I hate this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 What in the mother of screwjobs is this shit: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, RedSky said: Hoochie mama comes knocking unexpected lol I hate this winter I don't get the hate winter views...we did have a top 35 cold January along with above normal snowfall....but I assume because to the North - South - East and West they have all received more snowfall that folks who love snow are not enthralled with Winter Season 2021-22!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: Hoochie mama comes knocking unexpected lol I hate this winter Agreed. Yeah, it's only 2/9, but I'm kind of over this winter. If it snows again, great. If something pops up to track, I will. But if the season ended today, I really wouldn't care that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Agreed. Yeah, it's only 2/9, but I'm kind of over this winter. If it snows again, great. If something pops up to track, I will. But if the season ended today, I really wouldn't care that much. I'm in the spring can't get here soon enough crowd this year, but every day the GFS pushes back the pattern change and keeps the PV going strong closer to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Spread-shot so far at 12z that really shows how delicate this threat is. The UKMET is well east, CMC is an inland runner, GFS kind of splits the goalposts with a lean east. Pretty big spread on the ensembles still... We are no closer to getting clarity on this event than we were 12 hours ago. I think the CMC solution is the most unlikely though and would be shocked if things went down like that... it also moved like 200-300 miles northwest in one cycle. UKMET gave most of us 8-10" at 00z then this run has us only getting in on the northern vort 1-2" and being well offshore. GFS is the only kind of model with any sense of consistency so far but even that has been bouncing around 50-100 miles each way the last 3 runs. Hopefully the Euro brings a little bit of clarity. If it sticks with the 12z UKMET like solution, I have to think the eastern solutions would be favored at this time. But still lots of room for things to change as subtle changes at H5 are having big implications due to the spacing and timing of the vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Certainly a tick east on the 12z Euro..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Certainly a tick east on the 12z Euro..... That's it....im relocating to N Cape May bayside.....obviously the new snow capital of the region. My parents have had well over 2' so far this season down there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Certainly a tick east on the 12z Euro..... What's crazy is that it honestly looked closer to the CMC than GFS through 84 or so imo but the northern vort pushes the SS out to sea instead of phasing it. Just a real delicate set up. Nightmare to forecast. I wouldn't be confident on any solution until we are 48 hours in or we see some kind of consensus between the globals. I mean really, every single global model has a different solution. Yes some are the same outcome wise, but how the storm develops is different on all 5 globals. With so many vorts zooming around with no blocking, I just don't see the models having a good grasp on this storm until we get much closer. I think because of the lack of blocking and lack of spacing, a sheared out E solution is favored at this time though but as the CMC and even GFS has shown at 12z, small changes at H5 are going to have a big effect on the final outcome. We could certainly still get lucky. Seasonal trend definitely favors a Euro/UKMET like solution though at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 This looks eerily familiar. Congrats S and E of the Delaware River......again: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This looks eerily familiar. Congrats S and E of the Delaware River......again: They're not really doing that well either. You could probably predict 1-2" for the local burbs/Tri state area and C-1" for the far burbs/Lehigh Valley. Nothing big either way. Bottom line this appears to be another annoying storm w/minor accumulations if any at all... 51F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 12z Euro is a swing and a miss... As a quick obs - my low this morning was 24 and high so far has been 50. Currently sunny and 50 with dp 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I am a GFS front runner but I wouldn't hold my breath on this one. This Friday and Saturday should be awesome boys, get outside and enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 What is DT seeing that the models are not? Wxrisk.com updated their profile picture. 17m · SUNDAY 90% of the MID ATLANTIC ( and southern New England) WILL SEE SNOW... with accumulations .... more later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 The scrapple model (NBM) gave the area some love... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: What is DT seeing that the models are not? Wxrisk.com updated their profile picture. 17m · SUNDAY 90% of the MID ATLANTIC ( and southern New England) WILL SEE SNOW... with accumulations .... more later Potential clients and $$$... 50F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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