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MO/KS/AR/OK 2021-2022 Winter Discussion


JoMo
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I hadn't even looked past this event yet. To think there could be another storm on the heels of this one to track would be crazy. Based on the 3 images you posted there definitely looks to be some good model agreement at this time. 

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19 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Ever so small shifts south in the freezing line. So close, yet so far from getting snow. 00z GFS is going to be nuts with multiple winter storms. 

Yeah, HRRR keeps creeping south giving me more and more sleet here north of Tulsa tomorrow morning, will be interesting to see what happens. Some of those heavier storms could throw sleet down before it’s even freezing, something to watch. 
 

As for the GFS next week. Sheesh!

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TSA on next week.

"The upper pattern toward the middle to latter part of the
week could bring a messy winter weather episode to the region.
Large positive tilt upper trough in the West allows a more shallow
arctic airmass to ooze south down the Plains Tuesday into
Wednesday. Lift and moisture then overrun this cold air Wednesday
into Thursday, with some decent ice and sleet possible depending
on where the surface freezing line lies and the thermal profile
shakes out aloft. The western trough then ejects into the Plains
Thursday with a mixed bag of precip types changing to all snow and
possibly heavy somewhere. Stay tuned as these details will
continue to be refined in the coming days. There is potential for
this storm to be pretty impactful for the latter half of next
week."
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This system was a bust for OK.  Cold air was ahead of models and limited severe weather to the Red River area, one tornado warning in Stephens County. I had some freezing rain near Ralston OK. I found a pretty good area of freezing rain in Lenapah and then there was sleet and snow very light near South Coffeyville.  No where did I find warning criteria weather.  Winds suck....

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Well I'd be lying if I wasn't a bit let down by this snow storm based the potential it had. The 00Z models all showed very high snow totals. NWS and local meteorologists all upped snow totals. However, the initial precip moved in quick and was very heavy, but all sleet. Had thundersleet. The changeover to snow didn't happen until 5am or so, and with the storm moving at a pretty good clip, just didn't get heavy enough snowfall rates to reach the predicted totals. All forecasts, ranged from 6-10". All reports I've seen range from 4-5.5"  Decent, but short of what most expected here. 

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“Confidence is high in troughing developing through the western
CONUS early next week and also with the aforementioned seasonably
strong cold front. Additionally, the corridor of deep moisture
aligned along the frontal zone is forecast to largely remain in
place and possibly increase in magnitude. A likely scenario is one
or more lead shortwave troughs preceding the primary trough axis
ahead of its ejection across the central CONUS mid to late week.
The combination of multiple periods of lift tapping deep moisture
and lifting it atop a cold airmass is likely to lead to a wintry
mix across the region Wednesday through Thursday. Additionally,
the pattern is typical for a strong warm layer to develop atop the
cold pool leading to all precip types as precip expands
northward. Signals in deterministic data at this range also
support impressive precip rates with convective elements already
being modeled will north into the cold air. The potential for
impactful snow, sleet, and ice accumulation continues to increase.
Widely varying and frequently updated modeled winter weather
totals will likely be shown over the coming days. Remember to
identify a trusted source of weather information to monitor
forecast trends.
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Major disagreements between the models on precip amounts for the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe, especially for TX/OK.  This one seems to have a lot less agreement among the models than the past few systems from this range. I think the goalposts are still basically anywhere between mainly dry cold front to major winter storm for these areas. Further east it seems the precipitation amounts are a little less sensitive to the trough orientation so I’d be feeling better sitting in AR and MO. Cold air is definitely not in question at the surface but the warm nose aloft seems especially strong this go around. Looks like mainly sleet and/or freezing rain for those that do see precipitation.

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NAM starting to come into range.

Obviously there’s no dispute here on a winter storm, more just the location and intensity. Because this is looking like a prolonged event, I think the NAM is going to show us some insanely high precip amounts(not like that’s a shock).

But will tone it down. At the same time I expect some(not all) of the global models to uptick their amounts some.
 

image.thumb.png.3cca2fa7d11028a7aee16527759bf9ac.png

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Quite the ice or sleet storm for N. ARK and SE MO  on Wednesday/Thursday depending on which model you believe (if you believe either one, lol).  GFS is the sleet storm with freezing rain further south and Euro is the ice producer.  Neither one shows quite as much precip further north where snow/sleet would be more likely. 

zr.JPG

sleet.JPG

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4 hours ago, Ozarkwx said:

Quite the ice or sleet storm for N. ARK and SE MO  on Wednesday/Thursday depending on which model you believe (if you believe either one, lol).  GFS is the sleet storm with freezing rain further south and Euro is the ice producer.  Neither one shows quite as much precip further north where snow/sleet would be more likely. 

zr.JPG

sleet.JPG

Wow!    3.4" sleet and 1" freezing rain ?    I know it's not set in stone but I hope the snow line transitions farther south . The road department snow removal doesn't get in a hurry to do our road when it snows. So with that much ice n sleet I wouldn't  be able to leave my house for several days .

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Thoughts today from NWS TULSA

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
542 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022


.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CST Sun Feb 20 2022

The forecast becomes increasingly complex as we move into
Monday and especially during the Wednesday/Thursday time-frame.
From the potential of severe storms Monday night into Tuesday
morning to a wintry mess mid-week.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to bubble up
early Monday evening across southeast Oklahoma in advance of
a cold front that is set to move through the area Monday night
into Tuesday morning. In addition to the lift provided by
the frontal boundary, a weakening disturbance in the developing
southwesterly flow aloft will provide additional lift. There
will be adequate instability and shear for some of the storms
to become strong to severe. Large hail and damaging winds will
be the main concern. However, there is a low potential for
a tornado if a storm can remain surface based in the vicinity
of the cold front. The greatest potential for severe storms
will be across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas Monday
night into Tuesday morning. In addition to the potential for severe
weather, locally heavy rain will also be possible with precipitable
water values around 1.5 inches during this time. Again, the heaviest
rain will likely fall across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
1 to 2 inches of rain will be fairly common across this area with
local amounts around 4 inches possible. This could lead to flooding
of low lying areas. Have opted to not issue a Flash Flood Watch at
this time. However, later shifts will monitor closely and issue a
watch if necessary. The showers and storms are forecast to come to
an end Tuesday morning as the cold front exits the region.

Temperatures will be noticeably colder Tuesday and especially
Tuesday night. Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the
teens and twenties Tuesday night/Wednesday morning setting the
stage for the potential of a wintry mess mid-week.

With the cold air in place at the surface, at least two rounds of
wintry weather are expected to sweep across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas Wednesday into Thursday. The southwesterly
flow aloft will help provide the isentropic lift for the first
round of wintry precipitation beginning Wednesday morning and
continuing into Wednesday night. The second round will run from
Thursday morning into Thursday evening as as mid-level shortwave
ejects out of the Southwest US and across the area. During both
of these periods all modes of winter weather will be possible.
However, it is looking more likely that a good portion of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas will see more sleet and freezing
rain than snow. Significant impacts from the sleet and ice are
looking possible. Precipitation types and amounts will continue
to be refined as the event draws closer. Stay tuned.

After a dry yet chilly Friday, another chance of a wintry mix
will come Saturday into Saturday night as a another mid-level
shortwave sweeps across the area.
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These are not the kind of words you want to hear in an AFD. This came from this morning's in Tulsa: 

Quote
Substantial sleet and freezing rain accumulations remain forecast
across much of E OK / NW AR through Wednesday through Thursday.
Travel impacts should be anticipated. Power grids are likely to be
stressed with the corridor of heaviest freezing rain. Precip types
and amounts will continued to be refined. However today will mark
the warmest day to complete any early preparations in advance of
the winter storm.

 

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Winter Storm Watch for entire Tulsa CWA.

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed wintry precipitation possible. Total sleet
  and snow accumulations of up to around one inch and ice
  accumulations of around one half of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast
  Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At least two rounds of wintry precipitation
  are expected Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. Sleet
  and freezing rain are expected to be the most impactful precipitation
  types with light snow also possible in some area
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1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said:

It is awfully quiet in here. 

NWS Little Rock is on board with a Winter Storm Watch. 

Springfield seems to be less aggressive at this point. 

I agree !        Arkansas has winter storm warning and southern Missouri doesn't even have an advisory  ?  Yet the Springfield - NWS and local forecasters discussions have said significant freezing rain up to .25 " and sleet will happen . Hmmmm?   I guess most are not buying into it . Would you all in the know  give us your take on this event? Thanks

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1 hour ago, Doramo said:

I agree !        Arkansas has winter storm warning and southern Missouri doesn't even have an advisory  ?  Yet the Springfield - NWS and local forecasters discussions have said significant freezing rain up to .25 " and sleet will happen . Hmmmm?   I guess most are not buying into it . Would you all in the know  give us your take on this event? Thanks

The biggest difference between Tulsa/northern Arkansas and Springfield, is the fact that the criteria for a WSW are very different. Springfield seems most aggressive with the cold air, reducing the amount of ice, but there’s not enough precip to get them to a WSW level event. 
 

Likely won’t see warnings and advisory’s go up until mid day tomorrow. 
 

Springfield could also be playing catch up, which wouldn’t really be a surprise. 

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It is quite interesting to me that the NAM has been a bit lighter in terms of precip totals, compared to its normal overzealous precip output. Additionally, it tends to favor more sleet... while the EURO has been very consistent with very intense freezing rain numbers. I hope that the NAM is right. The ice outputs from the EURO are alarming, especially in Northern Arkansas. 

image.png.8cf0fe064e461fc7306911d25d2f9768.png

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1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said:

Sleet and freezing rain is going to be quite a mess. I am especially concerned about NW AR in the major cities of the area on up into far southern MO. 

We're 30 miles north of Mt Home AR.... Things not looking good as far as freezing rain/sleet 

      " Winter Storm Warning"

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice.
  Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MOZ105&warncounty=MOC153&firewxzone=MOZ105&local_place1=Dora MO&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=36.7768&lon=-92.2171

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15 minutes ago, thunderbird12 said:

Occasional moderate-to-heavy sleet in Norman this morning. Heard a couple rumbles of thunder as well. It's not often that you get to hear thunder when it's 12 degrees outside. 

Indeed! Lightning showing up on my RadarScope in the Bella Vista area as well. Hoping most of this band is sleet or snow. I wouldn't want freezing rain with this wave. 

 

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