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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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 Seeing snow in the mountains sure makes me crave winter. But speaking of snow, here is probably one of the most absurd snow forecasts I've ever seen  for a 36   nws forecast.  Gfs shows a 14 plus inch liquid the next 36 to 48 hours. . This is near mt. Muir...only up to 253 inches by the end of the afternoon tomorrow.

Detailed Forecast

Today
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. High near 24. Southeast wind 65 to 70 mph increasing to 75 to 80 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 85 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 52 to 58 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. East wind 50 to 60 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 110 to 116 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 25. East wind 40 to 50 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 73 to 79 inches possible
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Perfect Fall day for me here in Haywood this morning, fall colors, chill in the air, some drizzle.  I’m still around but life events had me take a hiatus as a mountain resident and become a foothill resident back in Hickory.  Looking at houses before work so I can be an official Haywood resident again.  First stop was at 3800’ in upper Crabtree area on the Buncombe county line, next stop is at 3600’ in Jonathan Creek area.

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4 hours ago, WxKnurd said:

Perfect Fall day for me here in Haywood this morning, fall colors, chill in the air, some drizzle.  I’m still around but life events had me take a hiatus as a mountain resident and become a foothill resident back in Hickory.  Looking at houses before work so I can be an official Haywood resident again.  First stop was at 3800’ in upper Crabtree area on the Buncombe county line, next stop is at 3600’ in Jonathan Creek area.

Nice seeing you post again. 

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Light frost and 35 this morning in Maggie. Interesting mid week into the weekend across the Mountains. Chance of rain/snow mix Wednesday night and then the possibility of some accumulation on Thursday into early Friday. Next weekend may well bring the coldest air of the season with lows in the low to mid 20’s!

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GSP provided a nice analysis this afternoon. Looks like snow levels dropped a bit for tomorrow night. Always fun to track the first potential of the season. Think snow!

 

 

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 224 pm EDT Tuesday: An interesting setup is in store for
western NC on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, one that we have
seen in the past lead to wintry precip. In this case, we might be
about a month too early, but it still serves as a reminder that we
don`t always need sfc low pressure to produce snow over the higher
elevations. The culprits will be DPVA associated with a broad area
of vorticity moving around the bottom of an upper trof with an axis
to our west Wednesday night into Thursday, and developing isentropic
upglide on Wednesday night. Low level moisture returning from the
Atlantic will combine with mid level moisture advecting from the
southwest to allow light precip to develop over the mtns Wednesday
evening as the forcing moves in, then spread east early Thursday
morning to the remainder of the fcst area. Partial thickness is
borderline, but model temp profiles support a high elevation snow
Wednesday night, with a snow level between 3k and 4k feet. As
it stands right now, the valleys and elevations below 3k look
like they will be too warm, but that could change. Fortunately,
the QPF looks minimal at best, so we might be looking at an inch
or so of light snow above 3500 feet. This is more or less right
on schedule for our first brush with the winter season. We have
more time to consider a high elevation Advisory, so we will take
it. The forcing exits and shuts off quickly on Thursday, so precip
should also diminish by the end of Thursday afternoon. The day will
feel like winter across the whole region, though, with well below
normal temps not making it out of the 40s east of the mtns because
of overcast sky and light rain. Dry air should move in from the
west after the upper trof axis moves past Thursday night, so Friday
should be mostly sunny but with temps 10-15 degrees below normal.
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