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Central PA - Fall 2021


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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Good stuff on the 12Z GFS.   Has a Major 'Cane (not going to look up which name it is) going by way to the East in the Atlantic with a new tropical system spawning to the larger systems West while at our latitude.  The new storm beelines for the East Coast and is about to head up the Chessie as moderate tropical system then, yoink, it stops and retrogrades Southwest to never been seen again. 

 

The end result is a run of beautiful weather with basically no rain for half a month. 

Bring me that 'cane...

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18 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I don't understand this at all (not you...the official numbers) when virtually every station within a 25 mile radius of both MDT and LNS were between 3-4". I checked with several friends that have rain gauges and every one of 'em had well over 3". 

The numbers reported on that graph seem to be perfectly aligned to every actual measurement I've obtained. 

I checked quite a few stations around MDT on WU and they were mostly right around or just under 2" so it seems to check out.  Keep in mind that I am closer to you than say, Etown is to MDT, and yet you got 1.11" more than I did.  These things happen.  I think the tropical downpours were a bit more sporadic than people realize yesterday.

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16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not sure I would call it a 'Cane but here it is ready to jump all over the MA after heading almost Due East for about 48 hours and then the string is pulled and it Yo Yo's South West. 

 

 

 

There there is the CMC which takes this first system has it do a death dive to the left into NJ to allow the second more ambitious system to head for New England.  Like yesterday, the MR runs are very squirrely as to low placements 

image.thumb.png.09879939eecf3f8a116be90474bb0e79.png

image.thumb.png.6faf4c74abe201dd06fd19882e5bd524.png

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5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I checked quite a few stations around MDT on WU and they were mostly right around or just under 2" so it seems to check out.  Keep in mind that I am closer to you than say, Etown is to MDT, and yet you got 1.11" more than I did.  These things happen.  I think the tropical downpours were a bit more sporadic than people realize yesterday.

I think MDT taking their top reports and making it look like an area wide event also cast some doubt over the whole thing.  Taking a look at the two day ACIS reports, you see a much more moderate look than CTP's graphic.  Most of these over 3" are well north of the LSV.  Hit and miss on the big figures and the general LSV totals were more in the 1.75 to 3" totals.  I am sure most of the high reports are real it was just not area wide. 

image.thumb.png.a1fef62fca1d73c26f765b509f64d68a.png

 

 

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

There there is the CMC which takes this first system has it do a death dive to the left into NJ to allow the second more ambitious system to head for New England.  Like yesterday, the MR runs are very squirrely as to low placements 

image.thumb.png.09879939eecf3f8a116be90474bb0e79.png

image.thumb.png.6faf4c74abe201dd06fd19882e5bd524.png

EC at 168 is nearly identical.

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7 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Would be an interesting event in some manner.    Looking at the EC it would be a potential flooding situation for S/C PA.   QPF charts are not super high but a dying low spinning off the Atlantic and stalling over PA/NE MD as it rains itself out. 

It’s time for a dry period. We have had more than enough rain in September.

My ideal plan is to have a nice dry period with normal temperatures from October to mid November. Then, once we get to mid November, bring the above normal precip back along with below normal temperatures. At that point, let the CTP snow tracking get underway!

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10 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s time for a dry period. We have had more than enough rain in September.

My ideal plan is to have a nice dry period with normal temperatures from October to mid November. Then, once we get to mid November, bring the above normal precip back along with below normal temperatures. At that point, let the CTP snow tracking get underway!

That is where you and I will always see things differently.  A dry period of a few days.  Sure, carry on.  A dry period of 45 days?   That is moon weather.    Fortunately, from my view, Wed looks quite wet as of now. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Quick scanned the GFS and CMC.   Whacko LP scenarios seem gone.  Generally seasonal weather.  GFS a little toasty near the end. 

Lots of time for that fantasy range stuff to change. Seasonable and fairly dry otherwise. EC is on board too. Monday could make a run at 80 but I don’t mind that if it’s short-lived.

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6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Lots of time for that fantasy range stuff to change. Seasonable and fairly dry otherwise. EC is on board too. Monday could make a run at 80 but I don’t mind that if it’s short-lived.

We seem destined for our second Sept in a row with no 90's.  Scanned back to 2000 (MDT) and it was fairly common the first decade but then 7 Septembers in a row from 2013 to 2019 had 90's in Sept. 

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We seem destined for our second Sept in a row with no 90's.  Scanned back to 2000 (MDT) and it was fairly common the first decade but then 7 Septembers in a row from 2013 to 2019 had 90's in Sept. 

The max of 85 here (PIT) for September, which should hold, is the lowest since 2009. But likewise, a lot of Septembers in the 2000s that didn’t get to 85 here.

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I was scanning a color map of departures from normal, that dated back to 1900.

What was very apparent is from 1900 to 2000, there were a fair share of equal below and above normal departures from month to month.

The last 20 years, the above normals have well outpaced the below normal months and the departure from normal are much greater on the warm side.

Kinda scary when you look at it that way.


.

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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

MDT matched you that day.  TimB will be unhappy if that happens this year. 

Somehow we escaped that stretch without a 90 at PIT or even a daily record. Still, it was miserable. 88, 85, 89 to start October. The 80 at PIT on 11/2/2016 also comes to mind, though it looks like that didn’t extend to central PA.

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