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Central PA - Fall 2021


canderson
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4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

To be fair, +8 months are statistically somewhat easier to get during the cold season than they are during the warm season. I wouldn’t go as far as to predict a +8 December, but the signs that December will be disappointing are really starting to add up. Nearly every GFS run has 60s imby at some point, and I imagine it’s the same or worse at MDT.

Looks like a warm start to winter. Damn this might be the whole winter season.

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7 minutes ago, Newman said:

Take a look at the upper air differences between the GFS and Euro. That energy coming down from Manitoba is the 12/6 event we're tracking. But most importantly, look at the confluence and energy over the northeast at hour 144. Completely different look, and heights are a lot lower over the east on the Euro due to the confluence. This doesn't allow for heights to build in time and, verbatim, the Euro is a clipper redeveloper that crushes New England. In a fast Nina flow that we have, surprises and changes will be the common story. Lots of small mood flake events in this fast flow with some occasional nice surprises when things line up correctly

 

 

Thanks, without some type of southern moisture involvement, its not much of a story here. 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Today's GFS has 70's at MDT (extrapolated from 18Z panel)  which is was the backing for my extreme comment.   The real reason today's GFS is so bad, to me, is the lack of cold air anywhere in the Eastern US or Canada.  It's an ugly look. 

Even the famous 18z run the other day with the Arctic blast early next week came on the heels of a 6z run where one of the panels had a 72 imby on the same day. Models seem to be continuing their inevitable recognition of a December pattern we don’t want.

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

All snow but doubt roads are too bad after sunrise. 

Thanks!

Just have to watch the bridges. I went skating on one this morning on my shortcut between Loyalton and Pillow. Luckily it was the steers and not the drives. I was coasting and slid to the right on a left curving bridge. A nunge of the throttle scooted me off the ice quicker and I stayed on the road. 

I won't lie, though. I did seat pucker a little bit...lol

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2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Thanks!

Just have to watch the bridges. I went skating on one this morning on my shortcut between Loyalton and Pillow. Luckily it was the steers and not the drives. I was coasting and slid to the right on a left curving bridge. A nunge of the throttle scooted me off the ice quicker and I stayed on the road. 

I won't lie, though. I did seat pucker a little bit...lol

Ice Road Truckers:  Pillow PA! 

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9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Team snow in the LSV will have seen snow at least in the air for 4 straight days after the tomorrow morning Clipper.

Not a bad way to end a cold below normal November.

I was expecting your wrath several times tonight so no harm, no foul.   Trying to be positive now, the 18Z GFS is better than the frying pan pattern at 12Z but is still a rain parade with a 70's day so ground truth has not changed. Maybe in 6 hours.  

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17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was expecting your wrath several times tonight so no harm, no foul.   Trying to be positive now, the 18Z GFS is better than the frying pan pattern at 12Z but is still a rain parade with a 70's day so ground truth has not changed. Maybe in 6 hours.  

Lol…no wrath, just enjoying the early season appetizer snow events over the last few days.

 

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1 hour ago, paweather said:

We got to hope! 

The upcoming pattern is a lot of back and forth. The northern steam is dominating at this time, which is typical for a La Niña. We just need one of these to dig a bit more with the right timing to provide a decent event. It’s very early, but I like seeing some of these weak storms bringing us a little light snow for now.

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Here is CTP’s take on the Clipper tomorrow.

Arriving quick on its heels from the NW will be a thickening
layer of clouds and a period of light snow late tonight and
Tuesday morning, thanks to an area of of weak to mdt low-mid
level warm advection, beneath the left exit region of a
110-120kt 300 mb jetlet.

Expect between 1-1.5 inches of snow to fall across the northern
and western mtns per consensus high res model qpf output and a
10-12:1 SLR, with a coating to 0.75 of an inch across the Ridge
and Valley Region of the state.

Although the snow accums will be light, the period of nuisance
winter weather will target the morning rush hour across much of
the CWA. This will likely slicken-up many untreated roads with
overnight min temps in the low to mid 20s over the higher
terrain, and upper 20s throughout the Central Valleys.

 

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13 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was expecting your wrath several times tonight so no harm, no foul.   Trying to be positive now, the 18Z GFS is better than the frying pan pattern at 12Z but is still a rain parade with a 70's day so ground truth has not changed. Maybe in 6 hours.  

Both overnight runs have that same garbage in fantasy land. The hot, humid day is even the same day on both runs.

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