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Central PA - Fall 2021


canderson
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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Regardless if the timing works out for the 5-7th storm, as long as the maps keeping showing this look it will be interesting to watch every 6 hours.  12Z GFS today phases them much too early for us but cannot quibble with timing this far out. 

image.png.fa9bbe5ddf8ed3abd274c6996bc3ffc4.png

 

I'll say way too early! UGH. 

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26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I dunno, I am 0-1 today.  I will see if I have time.  The part of the GFS that was bad is outside the Euro's range.   CMC took away the 9th snowstorm and replaced it with a mix storm on the 8th.  Sloppy and not real cold. 

Ha that sounds familiar :wacko:

It was cold enough yesterday that snow didn’t even melt off my truck. Today it melted.

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Gulf closed for business as the Euro rolls into the 6th.  A change from 0Z. 

Take a look at the upper air differences between the GFS and Euro. That energy coming down from Manitoba is the 12/6 event we're tracking. But most importantly, look at the confluence and energy over the northeast at hour 144. Completely different look, and heights are a lot lower over the east on the Euro due to the confluence. This doesn't allow for heights to build in time and, verbatim, the Euro is a clipper redeveloper that crushes New England. In a fast Nina flow that we have, surprises and changes will be the common story. Lots of small mood flake events in this fast flow with some occasional nice surprises when things line up correctly

Euro:

500hv.conus.png

 

GFS:

500hv.conus.png

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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Its at least below freezing again.  Dec is going to start off with a healthy positive departure per the Euro.  The Canderson +8 departure would be in play on the GFS. 

To be fair, +8 months are statistically somewhat easier to get during the cold season than they are during the warm season. I wouldn’t go as far as to predict a +8 December, but the signs that December will be disappointing are really starting to add up. Nearly every GFS run has 60s imby at some point, and I imagine it’s the same or worse at MDT.

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8 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

To be fair, +8 months are statistically somewhat easier to get during the cold season than they are during the warm season. I wouldn’t go as far as to predict a +8 December, but the signs that December will be disappointing are really starting to add up. Nearly every GFS run has 60s imby at some point, and I imagine it’s the same or worse at MDT.

Today's GFS has 70's at MDT (extrapolated from 18Z panel)  which was the backing for my extreme comment.   The real reason today's GFS is so bad, to me, is the lack of cold air anywhere in the Eastern US or Canada.  It's an ugly look. 

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