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Central PA - Fall 2021


canderson
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23 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

78/53 split here. 0" of rain officially this week.

Big weekend for me, 76ers home opener tonight (arrive home around midnight) and then up at 4:30am tomorrow to head to Happy Valley. 

Wow you're not fooling around!  I sold my Illinois tickets.  I'm not expecting to see Clifford but the good guys should still be fine in this one.  One of my buddies used to routinely do the Penn State thing on Saturday and then hit the Eagles game on Sunday on his way home to South Jersey, has season tickets for both.  What you're pulling makes that look like child's play though haha.  Have fun!

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Probably deserves mention that the CMC was the first model I saw that predicted the Monday SLP would traverse well north of us vs down through the Southern Mid-Atlantic.   Other models have trended in this direction and it sets up the chance of a record high on Monday as the S/W flow ahead of the cold front streams mid to upper 70's weather near or over the LSV.  

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Probably deserves mention that the CMC was the first model I saw that predicted the Monday SLP would traverse well north of us vs down through the Southern Mid-Atlantic.   Other models have trended in this direction and it sets up the chance of a record high on Monday as the S/W flow ahead of the cold front streams mid to upper 70's weather near or over the LSV.  

I've been quietly watching that time period for another opportunity to make a run towards 80. Not out of the question at all. 

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've been quietly watching that time period for another opportunity to make a run towards 80. Not out of the question at all. 

Certainly a chance with the 80's so close by.    What I am most impressed with is the CMC sniffing it out and seeing the GFS and Euro bend to its will.  Keeps things interesting and shows you cannot dismiss anything with a definitive wave of the keyboard.  GFS concurs now as well.

Monday Afternoon from 10/22 12Z GFS

image.png.26ae851232a7577956b02b5aff18598c.png

 

Monday Afternoon from the 10/20 12Z Run

image.thumb.png.b9fdaf561c4a8795b0c4a62812430c72.png

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Certainly a chance with the 80's so close by.    What I am most impressed with is the CMC sniffing it out and seeing the GFS and Euro bend to its will.  Keeps things interesting and shows you cannot dismiss anything with a definitive wave of the keyboard.  GFS concurs now as well.

Monday Afternoon from 10/22 12Z GFS

image.png.26ae851232a7577956b02b5aff18598c.png

 

Monday Afternoon from the 10/20 12Z Run

image.thumb.png.b9fdaf561c4a8795b0c4a62812430c72.png

 

 

 

Big bust potential alert! Forecasting temps that day will not be for the faint of heart. :) 

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This coldinista thinks higher will be the better forecast.  There is a limit on it as its not much over 80 in South VA.  The HIA can only do so much to the LSV, right?

Yes. I think for now to anticipate Monday being a day we reach the 70s is solid thinking. Don't get any more specific than that. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

This coldinista thinks higher will be the better forecast.  There is a limit on it as its not much over 80 in South VA.  The HIA can only do so much to the LSV, right?

But could the warmer start to the week make a difference when it comes to that all time October record?

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1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

But could the warmer start to the week make a difference when it comes to that all time October record?

Yea, it will help keep up the averages a bit though it would be surrounded by near or below average days....just a better chance to get to that +6.5 if that is the number.  If you look at Sunday's panel the high at MDT is below average but you do not have to go too far south for 70's.   But as you alluded too before, near average is going to chip down that postive departure as well. 

 

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28 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

But could the warmer start to the week make a difference when it comes to that all time October record?

Outside of departures, I think the warmest average Oct temp at MDT was 62 in 2007.  Right now MDT is at 65.2.  On this date (10/22) in 2007 MDT, was at 65.1 so very similar up to this point.  The lows over the last 4 October days of 2007 saved the month end number from being much higher.

 

 

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The CMC coup is getting more and more "dry" for early next week. Just scattered showers from what was once FFW level rains.   Not only would some push to break 80 (which would crush the 75 record at MDT), we are being Miller B'd out of significant rain.   Then the CMC brings an app runner the following weekend.    LOL

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

You and I definitely need a further south tuck :-).  Voyager has the plow out though.  

Don't worry.. some ensembles have a tucked low off OC and Delaware. 

 

Looking further out on the Eps .... AO goes negative around October 31 st into early November . Maybe our 1st true late Autumn airmass coming 

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Don't worry.. some ensembles have a tucked low off OC and Delaware. 

 

Looking further out on the Eps .... AO goes negative around October 31 st into early November . Maybe our 1st true late Autumn airmass coming 

I saw @Blizzard of 93 lurking before.  Maybe this gets him to chip in like he usually does on Sat AM.

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44 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Also to address the elephant in the room, the Sox choked.  IMO, no other way to look at it.   The swings they were taking last night were one of a team that lost confidence.  Stro's played the same through the whole series which made them the best team. 

It wasn’t a choke. They ran into some pitchers that threw career best games. 
 

They had a great season and far surpassed my expectations. 

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Also to address the elephant in the room, the Sox choked.  IMO, no other way to look at it.   The swings they were taking last night were one of a team that lost confidence.  Stro's played the same through the whole series which made them the best team. 

Astros were the better team. Red Sox didn’t choke. Astros rookie pitcher dominated them.


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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I saw @Blizzard of 93 lurking before.  Maybe this gets him to chip in like he usually does on Sat AM.

The telleconnections are starting to go in the right direction starting next week. The EPO going negative and the PNA going positive will help to move toward a better pattern for those that want colder weather with storms, that hopefully will turn wintry as the calendar advances.

Here is the EPO from the Euro ensemble & GEFS last night.

B0BE68E1-552D-4400-ACE9-F2AD1442C54B.png

6F02B0CF-712B-4DB9-8B8F-CA2E24516E34.png

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