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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2021 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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Ended up making it to 80 yesterday but it was muggy as hell when I was out at the supermarket.

Heard all the rocking and rolling early this morning between ~1 am - 4 am and was surprised to have gotten nailed with a total of 1.64" when all was about finished before 6 am.  The heaviest came between ~2 am - 3am.

Currently overcast, misty and 61 (currently my low so far) with dp 60.

radar5-10052021.png

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24 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

The bulk of last night's storms missed me. Some thunder & lightning, but just .10" in the bucket. Surprised at some of the rain totals around the region, were we expecting that??

60F/DP60F

It was mentioned in Mt.  Holly's forecast discussion, but the meso models didn't nail the details so well. Got 1.15" here, plenty of thunder and lightning along with the sound of some grass seed getting washed down a hill, lol.

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56 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

The bulk of last night's storms missed me. Some thunder & lightning, but just .10" in the bucket. Surprised at some of the rain totals around the region, were we expecting that??

60F/DP60F

Looking at their tweet and the SPS they put up overnight, it looks like it just missed you to the south -

Of course south of there got nailed (and I wish they hadn't drawn that SPS to exclude Philly at that latitude because that rain hit here in NW Philly - i.e., there was no "wall" along the border between Montco/Delco and Philly :huh:). They also posted this (RER for KPHL for 2.3" of rain from that) -

 

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31 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

It was mentioned in Mt.  Holly's forecast discussion, but the meso models didn't nail the details so well. Got 1.15" here, plenty of thunder and lightning along with the sound of some grass seed getting washed down a hill, lol.

Man you have been getting your careful seeding efforts washed away over and over. :yikes:

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1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:

It was mentioned in Mt.  Holly's forecast discussion, but the meso models didn't nail the details so well. Got 1.15" here, plenty of thunder and lightning along with the sound of some grass seed getting washed down a hill, lol.

Sorry to hear about your seed. I thought they came out too early to aerate and seed my yard, but in hindsight it worked out. Sprouts started popping up before the rains returned. Hopefully you can take advantage of the warm Oct and get more seed down.

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44 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Looking at their tweet and the SPS they put up overnight, it looks like it just missed you to the south -

Of course south of there got nailed (and I wish they hadn't drawn that SPS to exclude Philly at that latitude because that rain hit here in NW Philly - i.e., there was no "wall" along the border between Montco/Delco and Philly :huh:). They also posted this (RER for KPHL for 2.3" of rain from that) -

 

As Kamu noted, looking at yesterday's NAM and HRRR, it didn't look like anything more than a quick overnight shot of rain. I never bothered to look at the qpf forecast. Live & learn!

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8 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

As Kamu noted, looking at yesterday's NAM and HRRR, it didn't look like anything more than a quick overnight shot of rain. I never bothered to look at the qpf forecast. Live & learn!

I didn't expect it either given it seemed most of it had been to the north, with some very scattered pop ups here and there south of that band...  and although I knew the front was dropping down from that direction and it was overnight, I figured things wouldn't have been as unstable as they apparently became.  Before going to bed, I was looking at what appeared to be a convective boundary moving in from the NE and figured that would trickle in enough cooler air to stabilize things but apparently not.

The cluster of cells with that heavy rain came up from the SW.

So far my low has been 60 and I finally moved up to 62, with dp the same, and it's still overcast and misty.

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

Sorry to hear about your seed. I thought they came out too early to aerate and seed my yard, but in hindsight it worked out. Sprouts started popping up before the rains returned. Hopefully you can take advantage of the warm Oct and get more seed down.

Thanks, I appreciate that. I'm hoping the warm weather hangs on for another 10 days or so, once it turns it's pretty much game over at this time of year. One year I had frost blankets with heaters underneath (don't tell anyone lol), don't really want to repeat that experience.

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15 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM weeklies keep this warmth through February lol. 

 

 

 

 

Lucky they are garbage

N'ah, they're dead on. Our winter pattern usually settles in around March 20th to Memorial Day.

68F/DP 63F

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Warm october's have a pretty good correlation to late november/december cold. I'll tolerate the warmer weather the next few weeks to get a shot at some early winter action. The Dec. 5 storms seem like ages ago. It'd be cool to get a solid early december snowstorm this year. A winter like 2010-2011 would be good in my book. 

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Warm october's have a pretty good correlation to late november/december cold. I'll tolerate the warmer weather the next few weeks to get a shot at some early winter action. The Dec. 5 storms seem like ages ago. It'd be cool to get a solid early december snowstorm this year. A winter like 2010-2011 would be good in my book. 

I don't mind the extra warmth if it means earlier cold/snow, but does it have to be so dang humid???

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On 10/4/2021 at 9:57 PM, RedSky said:

Endless summer! As long as it gets cool for Halloween.

 

"Cool" for Halloween is fine. Cold, not so much. This normal to even AN October so far coupled with the same outlook for at least the next 2 weeks bodes well for winter. I have compiled quite a bit of data for the upcoming winter outlook which I will delve into later in the month. Anyone watching the expanse and depth of snow-cover in Siberia and N Mongolia? 

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Through yesterday we appear well on our way to one of the warmest October's in Chester County history with an average temp so far this month running over 6 degrees above normal. So does a warm October mean a "warmer" winter here in the County? Well below are 6 long term National Weather Service observer sites (Coatesville/Glenmoore/Phoenixville/Octoraro Lake, West Chester and Devault). I have ranked the top 10 warmest Octobers and compared them to the subsequent winter. Overall across all of the sites there is a 65% chance of a warmer than normal winter. But that said it is only slightly above normal at just 0.7 degrees across all 6 sites. Snowfall wise 2 seasons were above normal 3 near normal and 5 below normal snow seasons. image.png.ede16bb3d120a316b620871999c7760c.png

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Made it up to 78 yesterday after a low of 59.  This morning's low was a "warmer" 61, where I did have some low stratus form here overnight that quickly lifted before sunrise, but the backdoor front plus the overcast/flow off the ocean, has kept the temps down so far.

Currently overcast, with occasional breaks of sun, and 68 with dp 61, and it's not bad out at all.

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