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Central PA - Summer 2021


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27 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Don’t worry, you and Cashtown will jackpot in the Winter and hopefully revive your grass in time for next Spring.

Thanks but the dirt spots will unfortunately stick around for a bit unless I plant more seed and even that will take a summer to catch on. Canderson is shaking his fist and rum and coke at me right now and yelling clover.    But we did have a lot of snow this winter.  Helped avoid any well issues this summer. 

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I should be able to make some obs and discussion as this unfolds tonight and tomorrow. Since I literally sat on the edge of the precip with Isaias pretty close to this time last summer, it’s been awhile since I’ve had a decent tropical remnant event come right through here.

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Where the most shear and CAPE overlap...

bs06.us_ne.png

mlcape.us_ne.png

Leads to parameters like this:

stp.us_ne.png

scp.us_ne.png

And ultimately the chance for something like this:

nam4km_2021081800_024_40.38--77.02.png

 

I would never call for tornados, that's something you simply can't do. Look at that severe event a few weeks ago that looked great for tornados: it ended up missing our area but smacked the Jersey and Philly area. Simply put, every CAM is pointing towards lots of shear and helicity with the remnants of Fred tomorrow. In the warm sector, discrete rotating cells are a real possibility. There were 13 tornado reports out of the SE today -> That's heading this way tomorrow (does it remain as potent or weaken?). Each NAM and HRRR run today kept to the idea of potential tornados tomorrow, the scariest part being the timing leaning towards dusk and overnight. In 24 hours we'll see if they had the right idea or not. 

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1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

This will verify for some of us.    0.99” in Fairfield 1.45” at house 

Some gaudy overnight totals.  3" just Northwest of the Burg.  We only got .4 here so so about .75 since Mon.  heavier totals were over your area as shown and your ob reported.

 

image.thumb.png.b5e65a850724725697c711a5ab9632dd.png

 

 

 

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.31" for my daily total.  Fitzgerald with a pretty weak write-up for CTP's AFD this morning but at least they still mentioned a bit of what @Newman was talking about.  What's become of me when I'm calling out NWS forecasters by name, a new low for Snowman haha.

Strong low to mid level flow, combined with a moist tropical
airmass, could yield a few storms that possess transient
supercell structure this afternoon. The primary severe wx threat
will be localized damaging winds and an isolated tornado,
primarily along and to the east of the track of Fred`s remnants.
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12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

.31" for my daily total.  Fitzgerald with a pretty weak write-up for CTP's AFD this morning but at least they still mentioned a bit of what @Newman was talking about.  What's become of me when I'm calling out NWS forecasters by name, a new low for Snowman haha.

Strong low to mid level flow, combined with a moist tropical
airmass, could yield a few storms that possess transient
supercell structure this afternoon. The primary severe wx threat
will be localized damaging winds and an isolated tornado,
primarily along and to the east of the track of Fred`s remnants.

.26" for me yesterday, .44" since midnight. 2 day running total at .70"

I'll pass on the tornado threat. Paid off my house and became 100% debt free last week, I'd like to keep things intact now. :) 

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25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

image.png.28aaf80fe24a5b4322683606a8cfb0c6.png

Kinda crazy to think there hasn't been a land falling hurricane in new england since 1991 lol. I think this is one of the longest lulls in history for there. there's so many who have never experienced a hurricane in their lives. we'll see have to see if it happens but many more are coming aboard with it being a threat including nhc

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13 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Kinda crazy to think there hasn't been a land falling hurricane in new england since 1991 lol. I think this is one of the longest lulls in history for there. there's so many who have never experienced a hurricane in their lives. we'll see have to see if it happens but many more are coming aboard with it being a threat including nhc

It would be quite the newsmaker.  People crowding into shelters, who has been vaxxed and who has not, etc....

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15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

.26" for me yesterday, .44" since midnight. 2 day running total at .70"

I'll pass on the tornado threat. Paid off my house and became 100% debt free last week, I'd like to keep things intact now. :) 

Congratulations on that major life achievement. Wish I was anywhere near that point.

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Yeah for Central PA, it would take a miracle and a half to get any impacts (other than maybe some breezy conditions?) from Henri. But very fun to watch evolve regardless, SNE and perhaps even as far west as NYC are still very much in play as of now. More hurricane spaghetti models continue to show that capture and tug back west. GFS and UKMET are on board. 

08L_tracks_latest.png

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11 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Congratulations on that major life achievement. Wish I was anywhere near that point.

Its a great accomplishment and a stress reliever.  I too am not speaking from experience as the Florida recession of 2007 set me back 10 years.  But will be glad when I get there some day. 

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