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Just now, acoolerclimate said:

I knew I wasn't crazy. I lived in Albany from 2001 to 2008. My own temps weren't that different from surrounding areas back then. 

I'm glad you brought it up. They've consistently been "colder" than much of Eastern NY for probably the past year. I just never took the initiative to contact Albany NWS about it. I would think they'd have investigated it by now?

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2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

I'm glad you brought it up. They've consistently been "colder" than much of Eastern NY for probably the past year. I just never took the initiative to contact Albany NWS about it. I would think they'd have investigated it by now?

Yes, you would think the Met's there would have noticed they were consistently reading colder, but I'm guessing no one has the time to compare Albany with the other stations. 

 I have a friend who works at the office in Columbia, SC. I'm going to ask him if the staff every notices things like that. 

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39 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I'm glad you brought it up. They've consistently been "colder" than much of Eastern NY for probably the past year. I just never took the initiative to contact Albany NWS about it. I would think they'd have investigated it by now?

Interesting subject, writ large.  This has been one of the hot button issues in the world of climate study for decades.  Instument and loop calibration programs and frequency thereof, changing environments around sensors, data extrapolation over wide areas etc, are controlled to widely varying standards (to put it charitably) globally.   Without being inside baseball, so to speak, we have no way of knowing what the level of uncertainty is around any particular instrument especially over long periods.  Studies have been done that attempt to address this, and i assume are still being conducted, with satellite data thrown in the mix.  It does give one pause in regards to data quality contentions, at least for those of us that are experienced with such issues in the engineering field.  If we find bias errors in relatively "advanced" countries with some frequency, doesn't really give a warm fuzzy regarding that temp sensor record in Outer Mongolia. ;)

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8 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Interesting subject, writ large.  This has been one of the hot button issues in the world of climate study for decades.  Instument and loop calibration programs and frequency thereof, changing environments around sensors, data extrapolation over wide areas etc, are controlled to widely varying standards (to put it charitably) globally.   Without being inside baseball, so to speak, we have no way of knowing what the level of uncertainty is around any particular instrument especially over long periods.  Studies have been done that attempt to address this, and i assume are still being conducted, with satellite data thrown in the mix.  It does give one pause in regards to data quality contentions, at least for those of us that are experienced with such issues in the engineering field.  If we find bias errors in relatively "advanced" countries with some frequency, doesn't really give a warm fuzzy regarding that temp sensor record in Outer Mongolia. ;)

Whats frustrating is that in this day and age, it doesnt get much easier than a basic thermistor.  These things are easy to calibrate and should be incredibly precise and durable.  There is no excuse for bad temperature measurements in 2021, especially with the budget that NOAA has.  

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Wowzers!!!!

FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NORTH CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY...

At 446 PM EDT, Local law enforcement reported flash flooding
occurring across the warned area with multiple roads flooded.
Between 3.5 and 4 inches of rain has fallen. Flash flooding is
already occurring. If you are in a safe place, stay there, do not
travel and stay away from flooded roads.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Delta Lake, Ava, North Western, Westernville, Frenchville, Delta
  Lake State Park and Stokes Corner.

 

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1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

Interesting subject, writ large.  This has been one of the hot button issues in the world of climate study for decades.  Instrument and loop calibration programs and frequency thereof, changing environments around sensors, data extrapolation over wide areas etc, are controlled to widely varying standards (to put it charitably) globally.   Without being inside baseball, so to speak, we have no way of knowing what the level of uncertainty is around any particular instrument especially over long periods.  Studies have been done that attempt to address this, and i assume are still being conducted, with satellite data thrown in the mix.  It does give one pause in regards to data quality contentions, at least for those of us that are experienced with such issues in the engineering field.  If we find bias errors in relatively "advanced" countries with some frequency, doesn't really give a warm fuzzy regarding that temp sensor record in Outer Mongolia. ;)

I thought I'd do an unscientific study of the departure from normal over the last 2 1/2 years for locations found in the Local Climatological Data section of the NWS Websites. I'm using the unedited data that is showing there. Here are the departures from normal based on those pages for the following stations:   If I'd hazard a guess, I'd say someone thought maybe Albany was reading too warm, so they tried to fix it, but they went too far. The problem starts in Aug of 2020, about a year ago, just like TugHillMatt said. It also appears as though Syracuse is reading too warm this year, while Binghampton was a bit on the cool side in 2019 and 2020. 

 

2019.                             Jan.         Feb.         Mar.         Apr          May.         Jun.         Jul.         Aug.         Sep.         Oct.         Nov.         Dec.         Average

Albany                            0.7.           1.7.           0.1.           2.0.         0.2.           0.8.         4.4.          1.6.           1.9.           3.9.         -3.0.          1.3                1.2

Poughkeepsie                1.9           2.3.            .0.           2.4.         1.1.            0.1.          3.8.          0.9.           1.6.           3.6.         -4.3          0.2.               1.1

Glens Falls                     1.7.           1.0.          -0.5.          0.7.          0.4.            .0.          3.5.           .0.           0.5.           2.9.         -4.6.         0.5.               0.5              

Bennington.                 -0.5           1.9.           -1.2.          1.3.          0.3.         -0.3.         2.8.          0.6.          0.3.           2.9.         -4.8.         0.5.              0.3

Pittsfield.                       0.6.          2.2.          -0.1.           2.3.         0.9.           0.7.         4.3.          1.2.           1.8.           3.6.         -3.8.          1.5.               1.3 

Binghampton.              -1.9.           1.1.           -2.1.            1.5.        -0.1.          -1.2.         3.0.        -0.6.           1.4.           2.3.         -5.5.         0.5.             -0.1 

Burlington                    -1.5.           0.7.          -0.6.           0.7.        -1.4.           0.2.        4.3.           1.4.           1.5.           4.0.         -5.2.         1.6.               0.5   

Syracuse                     -2.2.           0.7.          -1.8.           1.2.        -0.6.         -0.7.         3.5.          -0.1.          1.9.            2.9.         -4.6.         1.1.                0.1 

2020.                            Jan.         Feb.         Mar.         Apr          May.         Jun.         Jul.         Aug.         Sep.         Oct.         Nov.         Dec.         Average

Albany                          9.2.           5.6.           7.3.         -1.2.           1.5.           3.6.         4.1.          -1.3.        -2.2.          -0.8.           1.3.         1.4.                2.4          

Poughkeepsie.             7.5            6.0.           6.1.         -2.8.         -0.7.            2.5.        5.2.           3.0.          1.1.             2.6.          4.2.         2.1.                3.1

Glens Falls.                  7.8.            2.5.           5.4.       -2.0.           0.4.            1.3.        4.1.            0.9.        -0.4.            1.7.           3.2.         2.6.               2.3  

Bennington.                 7.8.            3.0.           5.3.       -2.3.           0.9.            1.9.        4.5.            1.8.          1.2.            2.5.          4.4.         2.9.               2.8 

Pittsfield                      9.0.            5.1.            6.2.       -1.6.           0.4.            2.8.        5.8.           2.2.          2.1.            2.8.          4.8.         3.9.               3.6   

Binghampton.              6.2.           3.2.           5.3.       -4.1.          -0.7.             0.8.        4.4.           2.0.         0.5.            1.2.           4.5.         1.8.               2.0   

Burlington                    7.4.           3.3.           6.3.        -1.4.           1.6.             3.1.         6.2.           2.2.         1.6.            2.0.           5.1.          5.5.               3.6  

Syracuse                      7.4.           2.6            6.1.        -2.5.          -0.8.            2.6.        5.8.           3.2.         1.8.            1.3.            5.0.         4.4.              3.1 

2021.                             Jan.         Feb.         Mar.         Apr          May.         Jun.         Average      

Albany.                         0.7.          -2.2.           1.4.        -1.1.           -4.0.          -0.2.       -0.9 

Poughkeepsie              3.4.         -1.4.           4.2.         2.1.           -0.8.           2.7.          1.7         

Glens Falls.                   4.1.           0.4.           2.8.         1.2.          -0.7.            2.9.         1.8 

Bennington.                  2.4.         -1.0.           2.7.         2.0.          -0.5.            3.3.         1.5       

Pittsfield.                      3.5.           0.1.           3.0.         1.9.          -0.6.            3.3.         1.9 

Binghampton.               2.2.         -1.5.           3.0.        0.2.          -1.1.             3.4.         1.0 

Burlington.                    2.1.          -1.1.           2.8.         2.4.           0.5.            4.3.         1.8 

Syracuse                      3.6.         -0.8.           4.4.        2.3.           0.8.             5.5.         2.6 

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3 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Interesting subject, writ large.  This has been one of the hot button issues in the world of climate study for decades.  Instument and loop calibration programs and frequency thereof, changing environments around sensors, data extrapolation over wide areas etc, are controlled to widely varying standards (to put it charitably) globally.   Without being inside baseball, so to speak, we have no way of knowing what the level of uncertainty is around any particular instrument especially over long periods.  Studies have been done that attempt to address this, and i assume are still being conducted, with satellite data thrown in the mix.  It does give one pause in regards to data quality contentions, at least for those of us that are experienced with such issues in the engineering field.  If we find bias errors in relatively "advanced" countries with some frequency, doesn't really give a warm fuzzy regarding that temp sensor record in Outer Mongolia. ;)

 

3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Whats frustrating is that in this day and age, it doesnt get much easier than a basic thermistor.  These things are easy to calibrate and should be incredibly precise and durable.  There is no excuse for bad temperature measurements in 2021, especially with the budget that NOAA has.  

 

2 hours ago, acoolerclimate said:

I thought I'd do an unscientific study of the departure from normal over the last 2 1/2 years for locations found in the Local Climatological Data section of the NWS Websites. I'm using the unedited data that is showing there. Here are the departures from normal based on those pages for the following stations:   If I'd hazard a guess, I'd say someone thought maybe Albany was reading too warm, so they tried to fix it, but they went too far. The problem starts in Aug of 2020, about a year ago, just like TugHillMatt said. It also appears as though Syracuse is reading too warm this year, while Binghampton was a bit on the cool side in 2019 and 2020. 

 

2019.                             Jan.         Feb.         Mar.         Apr          May.         Jun.         Jul.         Aug.         Sep.         Oct.         Nov.         Dec.         Average

Albany                            0.7.           1.7.           0.1.           2.0.         0.2.           0.8.         4.4.          1.6.           1.9.           3.9.         -3.0.          1.3                1.2

Poughkeepsie                1.9           2.3.            .0.           2.4.         1.1.            0.1.          3.8.          0.9.           1.6.           3.6.         -4.3          0.2.               1.1

Glens Falls                     1.7.           1.0.          -0.5.          0.7.          0.4.            .0.          3.5.           .0.           0.5.           2.9.         -4.6.         0.5.               0.5              

Bennington.                 -0.5           1.9.           -1.2.          1.3.          0.3.         -0.3.         2.8.          0.6.          0.3.           2.9.         -4.8.         0.5.              0.3

Pittsfield.                       0.6.          2.2.          -0.1.           2.3.         0.9.           0.7.         4.3.          1.2.           1.8.           3.6.         -3.8.          1.5.               1.3 

Binghampton.              -1.9.           1.1.           -2.1.            1.5.        -0.1.          -1.2.         3.0.        -0.6.           1.4.           2.3.         -5.5.         0.5.             -0.1 

Burlington                    -1.5.           0.7.          -0.6.           0.7.        -1.4.           0.2.        4.3.           1.4.           1.5.           4.0.         -5.2.         1.6.               0.5   

Syracuse                     -2.2.           0.7.          -1.8.           1.2.        -0.6.         -0.7.         3.5.          -0.1.          1.9.            2.9.         -4.6.         1.1.                0.1 

2020.                            Jan.         Feb.         Mar.         Apr          May.         Jun.         Jul.         Aug.         Sep.         Oct.         Nov.         Dec.         Average

Albany                          9.2.           5.6.           7.3.         -1.2.           1.5.           3.6.         4.1.          -1.3.        -2.2.          -0.8.           1.3.         1.4.                2.4          

Poughkeepsie.             7.5            6.0.           6.1.         -2.8.         -0.7.            2.5.        5.2.           3.0.          1.1.             2.6.          4.2.         2.1.                3.1

Glens Falls.                  7.8.            2.5.           5.4.       -2.0.           0.4.            1.3.        4.1.            0.9.        -0.4.            1.7.           3.2.         2.6.               2.3  

Bennington.                 7.8.            3.0.           5.3.       -2.3.           0.9.            1.9.        4.5.            1.8.          1.2.            2.5.          4.4.         2.9.               2.8 

Pittsfield                      9.0.            5.1.            6.2.       -1.6.           0.4.            2.8.        5.8.           2.2.          2.1.            2.8.          4.8.         3.9.               3.6   

Binghampton.              6.2.           3.2.           5.3.       -4.1.          -0.7.             0.8.        4.4.           2.0.         0.5.            1.2.           4.5.         1.8.               2.0   

Burlington                    7.4.           3.3.           6.3.        -1.4.           1.6.             3.1.         6.2.           2.2.         1.6.            2.0.           5.1.          5.5.               3.6  

Syracuse                      7.4.           2.6            6.1.        -2.5.          -0.8.            2.6.        5.8.           3.2.         1.8.            1.3.            5.0.         4.4.              3.1 

2021.                             Jan.         Feb.         Mar.         Apr          May.         Jun.         Average      

Albany.                         0.7.          -2.2.           1.4.        -1.1.           -4.0.          -0.2.       -0.9 

Poughkeepsie              3.4.         -1.4.           4.2.         2.1.           -0.8.           2.7.          1.7         

Glens Falls.                   4.1.           0.4.           2.8.         1.2.          -0.7.            2.9.         1.8 

Bennington.                  2.4.         -1.0.           2.7.         2.0.          -0.5.            3.3.         1.5       

Pittsfield.                      3.5.           0.1.           3.0.         1.9.          -0.6.            3.3.         1.9 

Binghampton.               2.2.         -1.5.           3.0.        0.2.          -1.1.             3.4.         1.0 

Burlington.                    2.1.          -1.1.           2.8.         2.4.           0.5.            4.3.         1.8 

Syracuse                      3.6.         -0.8.           4.4.        2.3.           0.8.             5.5.         2.6 

Excellent discussion and research, guys!  It seems as though they should have an office/professionals that travel to the NWS sites across the nation to ensure that all stations/sensors are in a very similar setup and running correctly. I realize they probably have people at each airport/site that do that...but it doesn't mean it's consistent across the board. Having as much of a controlled environment (as much as possible within the world of weather....tricky) that provides data that can be accurately compared to other sites and an own sites historical data seems important to me. But, then, I am a weather geek, and doubt many people care as much as I/we do. lol

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

 

Excellent discussion and research, guys!  It seems as though they should have an office/professionals that travel to the NWS sites across the nation to ensure that all stations/sensors are in a very similar setup and running correctly. I realize they probably have people at each airport/site that do that...but it doesn't mean it's consistent across the board. Having as much of a controlled environment (as much as possible within the world of weather....tricky) that provides data that can be accurately compared to other sites and an own sites historical data seems important to me. But, then, I am a weather geek, and doubt many people care as much as I/we do. lol

Ahhh I found my scratch notes in my notebook from last year!  We didn’t start to question the Buffalo temps until mid - late August.  I tracked the his and los at KBUF to 3 other sites within 2 miles of the airport.  While the hi temps generally lined up right in line with the nearby stations it was noticed the lo temps at KBUF were consistently running running 3-6+ degrees above all the other stations every day.  In early September KBUF acknowledged a calibration issue and installed a new temp sensor unit.  No historical temp logs were adjusted but this likely caused corrupted temp data for a period of at least 4-8 weeks.  
 

no idea what the calibration procedures are or how often but the equipment is bound to fail at some point.  If your saying SYR is showing higher than surrounding area max temps maybe the sensor fell off a mount and is exposed to direct sun now or something else silly that could be easily overlooked.  Or maybe the parking lot attendants got tasked with the job this summer and are calling in the hourly temps eyeballing a stick of red Mercury.  Who knows?

 

0CA52C94-F8C1-46BF-BD63-30EBDBCC3DC2.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Ahhh I found my scratch notes in my notebook from last year!  We didn’t start to question the Buffalo temps until mid - late August.  I tracked the his and los at KBUF to 3 other sites within 2 miles of the airport.  While the hi temps generally lined up right in line with the nearby stations it was noticed the lo temps at KBUF were consistently running running 3-6+ degrees above all the other stations every day.  In early September KBUF acknowledged a calibration issue and installed a new temp sensor unit.  No historical temp logs were adjusted but this likely caused corrupted temp data for a period of at least 4-8 weeks.  
 

no idea what the calibration procedures are or how often but the equipment is bound to fail at some point.  If your saying SYR is showing higher than surrounding area max temps maybe the sensor fell off a mount and is exposed to direct sun now or something else silly that could be easily overlooked.  Or maybe the parking lot attendants got tasked with the job this summer and are calling in the hourly temps eyeballing a stick of red Mercury.  Who knows?

 

0CA52C94-F8C1-46BF-BD63-30EBDBCC3DC2.jpeg

Hey, if ROC can do it, why can't they? :lmao:

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A potent shortwave trough and associated cold front will arrive
late this afternoon. Height falls associated with the
approaching wave combined with diurnal heating will bring the
likelihood of showers and thunderstorms starting after 4 PM.
Decent instability develops with MLCAPES around 2000 J/kg and
combined with some marginal shear profiles some storms may
produce gusty winds and perhaps some hail. Though it appears
that the storms will be progressive, there will be the
potential for tropical downpours and localized flooding.
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11 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Ahhh I found my scratch notes in my notebook from last year!  We didn’t start to question the Buffalo temps until mid - late August.  I tracked the his and los at KBUF to 3 other sites within 2 miles of the airport.  While the hi temps generally lined up right in line with the nearby stations it was noticed the lo temps at KBUF were consistently running running 3-6+ degrees above all the other stations every day.  In early September KBUF acknowledged a calibration issue and installed a new temp sensor unit.  No historical temp logs were adjusted but this likely caused corrupted temp data for a period of at least 4-8 weeks.  
 

no idea what the calibration procedures are or how often but the equipment is bound to fail at some point.  If your saying SYR is showing higher than surrounding area max temps maybe the sensor fell off a mount and is exposed to direct sun now or something else silly that could be easily overlooked.  Or maybe the parking lot attendants got tasked with the job this summer and are calling in the hourly temps eyeballing a stick of red Mercury.  Who knows?

 

0CA52C94-F8C1-46BF-BD63-30EBDBCC3DC2.jpeg

Pretty crazy that an entire team of Mets that do nothing all summer except check temps couldn't figure this out last year. What were they doing all day in the office last summer when it was 90 everyday with sun. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Despite all the dreary days and rain, temps are pretty close to normal for Buffalo/Watertown, a little below for ROC

BUF: -.3

ROC: -2.1

WAT: -.5

Yup, rainy cloudy patterns tend to keep our overnight minimums much higher so it ends up looking a littler warmer than it was if you only judged it by daily highs. 

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...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible Late Today and this
Evening...

A cold front poised over southern Ontario during the midday will
push south this afternoon and evening. Since the bulk of today
will feature plenty of sunshine over our region...our airmass
will become quite unstable and thus favorable for strong to
severe thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the front.

The strongest thunderstorm activity will likely impact the
Thousand Islands region after 3 PM...then as the broken line of
showers and storms push south...they will cross the counties
lining the south shore of Lake Ontario as well as the remainder of
the North Country after 5 PM. The activity is then forecast to
weaken somewhat as it makes its way further south into the
Southern Tier by nightfall. The greatest threat with the expected
convection will be damaging straight line winds and possibly some
hail.
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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Pretty crazy that an entire team of Mets that do nothing all summer except check temps couldn't figure this out last year. What were they doing all day in the office last summer when it was 90 everyday with sun. 

I'm guessing that most NWSFO's have a lot of "routine" tasks to perform daily, getting products ready, discussions, monitoring for sig weather, conf calls, dealing with HR ;) etc etc.  I could easily see where something like this could go unnoticed for quite a while, unless it was really anomalous (like a failed high/low instrument reading).  It's not like highly trained and busy mets/techs have nothing else to do but stare at random temperature readings across their WFO and run comps with other data.  Detecting a sensor that has "drifted" a few degrees would probably require comparison with similar/nearby sensors (that are reliable), or some sort of monitoring algorithm that would flag trends etc., or have a redundant sensor for comparison (but even that might not pick up drift if the cause is not the instrument itself).  Seems easy but in practice...quite tricky and potentially complex / $$ .  

KSYR temp today looks pretty much in-line with local area readings, at least by a quick look at WeatherUnderground display.

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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

So far so good lol

Very hazy here with a temp of 73°, not moving much yet, forecast high in the lower 80s..

Screenshot_20210720-114057.png

Like we said before, even with corrections (if they were done), silly Syracuse is still hotter than everybody else today. lol... (Danville is 1 degree hotter as of 1 pm...we'll see if that holds.)

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1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Like we said before, even with corrections (if they were done), silly Syracuse is still hotter than everybody else today. lol... (Danville is 1 degree hotter as of 1 pm...we'll see if that holds.)

The Sizzle will not be denied!!

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The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Much of New York
     Vermont
     Lake Erie
     Lake Ontario

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
     1100 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A well-organized line of thunderstorms is moving across
   southeast Ontario, and will affect the watch area this afternoon and
   evening.  Other more isolated storms will also form ahead of the
   line, posing additional severe threat.  Damaging winds are the main
   risk, but hail is also possible.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 130
   statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Saranac
   Lake NY to 35 miles south southeast of Syracuse NY. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

ww0384_radar (1).gif

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A few fall like days, I dig it lol

Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 11am. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 73. North wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Light west wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning.
Thursday Night
A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 57.
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