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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


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GFS shows 30 to as high as 50 knot SW 250 mb flow, as a consequence, the heaviest rain is always NW of where a center tries to form, and it never organizes enough to be a TC.  Only a few GEFS ensembles close a 1004 mb low.  Probably not going to happen.  GFS ensemble mean says heaviest rain NE Gulf.

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3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

GFS shows 30 to as high as 50 knot SW 250 mb flow, as a consequence, the heaviest rain is always NW of where a center tries to form, and it never organizes enough to be a TC.  Only a few GEFS ensembles close a 1004 mb low.  Probably not going to happen.  GFS ensemble mean says heaviest rain NE Gulf.

A sloppy system fits climo, so I’m not surprised the guidance has trended to a messier system. That said, there’s still a lot to figure out.

BoC tends to be a good place for TC genesis so I’d expect at least a depression to form. 

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Unusual year here in Florida. Where we live in Gulfport it is not uncommon for May and June to be bone dry even when some areas of Tampa Bay and east get storms. But to be in mid-June and sit outside with low humidity is out of the ordinary. No mosquitoes, no sweating. Feels like late September, still hot but dry. Normally May and June are miserable with humidity even when the storms form over us and move inland without giving us rain. That's really not happening yet. A few thunderstorms popped over central Florida today, but not the same.

As an observer and a passionate storm watcher, we're off to a different start than the past few years. Might not have any influence as far as the the overall tropical storm season, but definitely not a typical year for us in Pinellas County, Florida with humidity and moisture.

 

 

 

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14 hours ago, MJO812 said:

He has the east coast in a high risk

Bastardi is better than people give him credit for, he even called for a below normal impact year a couple of seasons ago, but he does seem to have a bit of a built in bias for seeing East Coast threats.  Almost a decade since Sandy, Northeast is 'due' for another significant storm, although, having taught probability to middle school math students, 'due' isn't scientific.  (After 10 coin flips in a row landing on heads, the next one is still 50/50 unless something is wrong with the coin)

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6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

What's so funny ? I mean I had 2 tropical storm warnings last summer here in NYC. 

Are there records or archives of "TC Warnings"? They so often jump all over the place within days of any storm.

Every year I plan to track models, but already won't catch up this year. LOL

Tampa Bay has been in numerous GFS model tracks lasting about 6 hours at a time for possible significant 2021 storms.

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9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

What's so funny ? I mean I had 2 tropical storm warnings last summer here in NYC. 

Follow the money

also, your tropical storms were barely real

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Laura posed a remote, possible mild threat to NYC for a moment, but a stronger cold front came through and was more of a weather event. Laura appears to have been on the local news for a few days even though no tropical warnings were posted. A severe weather warning did come up with the cold front though after Laura went south with little affect.

image.thumb.png.58b06ec9c27e35f09ee424d813e93d1b.png

 

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1 hour ago, Prospero said:

Any thoughts on the mess off of the Yucatan Peninsula that is not 92L?

 

 

I don't know but the outflow of it provided a full day of much needed rain for us in south Florida.

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On 6/12/2021 at 8:31 PM, Prospero said:

Unusual year here in Florida. Where we live in Gulfport it is not uncommon for May and June to be bone dry even when some areas of Tampa Bay and east get storms. But to be in mid-June and sit outside with low humidity is out of the ordinary. No mosquitoes, no sweating. Feels like late September, still hot but dry. Normally May and June are miserable with humidity even when the storms form over us and move inland without giving us rain. That's really not happening yet. A few thunderstorms popped over central Florida today, but not the same.

As an observer and a passionate storm watcher, we're off to a different start than the past few years. Might not have any influence as far as the the overall tropical storm season, but definitely not a typical year for us in Pinellas County, Florida with humidity and moisture.

 

Interesting, over near Daytona it’s been bone dry, but humid for the last two weeks  last few years the humidity did not build until July  

 

 

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3 hours ago, Stormfly said:

SAL engine cranking up!

Not uncommon in June and July, if it is still happening in August, than the MDR is suppressed.  Earliest genuine CV storm I remember is Hurricane Bertha, formed early July.   Last year we had hazy skies in Houston from SAL.  That was interesting. 

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2 hours ago, Tezeta said:

I kinda hate CV storms anyways. Let’s hope we can get a homegrown system into the gulf or Carolinas before august 20th instead of counting on the MDR. 

The late bloomers are usually the ones IMBY (Texas), as far West as we are, most CVs curve long before getting here.  Depending on how one defines a CV storm, almost/not quite a major (a 2.75 if the SS scale was to the hundredths) Ike could be a CV, although it was well defined over Africa, it was past the CVs before being classified.  Atlantic MDR storm, anyway.  But most of the big ones, Alicia, Carla, Harvey, were late bloomers.

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On 6/12/2021 at 4:30 PM, ldub23 said:

JB says watch out.

 

 

Actually, May 1995 did not have a low tornado count.  Quite the opposite with 391 tornadoes, the 7th highest monthly total on record.  Be careful with taking statistics at face value on social media.

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Yesterday someone (I don't remember the name) Twitter posted 15 day 12Z Euro ensemble, there were two sub 1000 (980 to 1000) mb lows (almost 4% of 51!) that had crossed the Yucatan from the Caribbean.  Only a couple of very weak lows on free Weathernerds ensembles in Caribbean day 10, so probably 10-15 day development.  Anybody know if the monsoon trough/CAG is expected to be down there past day 10?  I am between PPV models at the moment.

 

Yes, I know 2 Euro perturbations past day 10 is not high confidence.

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23 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Actually, May 1995 did not have a low tornado count.  Quite the opposite with 391 tornadoes, the 7th highest monthly total on record.  Be careful with taking statistics at face value on social media.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_1995

"The season peaked in May with a near-record of 392 tornadoes that month. June brought over 200 tornadoes, including several that became famous for their videos. The death total for the year was relatively low at 30 (fewest since 1986)."

Wonder if JB said the wrong year. ;)

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15 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Yesterday someone (I don't remember the name) Twitter posted 15 day 12Z Euro ensemble, there were two sub 1000 (980 to 1000) mb lows (almost 4% of 51!) that had crossed the Yucatan from the Caribbean.  Only a couple of very weak lows on free Weathernerds ensembles in Caribbean day 10, so probably 10-15 day development.  Anybody know if the monsoon trough/CAG is expected to be down there past day 10?  I am between PPV models at the moment.

 

Yes, I know 2 Euro perturbations past day 10 is not high confidence.

I don’t think the CAG will stick around, but it does look like there may be another Caribbean or Gulf window as another CCKW potentially passes through in early July.

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