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Central PA - Spring 2021


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7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, and the NFL always tries to keep them relevant as long as possible.

The refs always keep the Cowboys in the games as long as possible... it is terrible to witness it every year.

Oh come on now.  I agree that the league likes when they are in the news because they have a huge fan base but there is no mass cheating going on. 

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43 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CTP with not a single mention of even a chance of a shower for the next 7 days. 

Everything looks the same to me on the models this AM.  The further east in PA one goes the more chance the South/East moving blobs of moisture catch you.  SO definitely a chance of rain this weekend and early next week.   

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

Everything looks the same to me on the models this AM.  The further east in PA one goes the more chance the South/East moving blobs of moisture catch you.  SO definitely a chance of rain this weekend and early next week.   

I assume you mean west.65EC3B86-94C3-458A-96DD-FE880DC588DA.jpeg.60569df69efa71682395c16e6a8665db.jpeg
This map was reassuring for me, but sorry folks.

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

I was looking at the GFS which concentrates close to 1" in East PA.   All about the ridge axis location.     I am really down on the EC right now. 

 

Once again the GFS is winning in this pattern, the weekend heat already looks much more muted than what the Euro/CMC wanted.

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Add the Icon to Heat Miser list for this weekend.  Will be interested to see if it gets to 75 at MDT on Sat (GFS and CMC) or 85 (EC) or Low 90's (Icon) 

How does the Icon generally perform? I rarely if ever look at it.

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Add the Icon to Heat Miser list for this weekend.  Will be interested to see if it gets to 75 at MDT on Sat (GFS and CMC) or 85 (EC) or Low 90's (Icon) 

CTP going with full sun and 92 here this weekend. Nothing but Sunny/Mostly Sunny for as far out as they go. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

CTP going with full sun and 92 here this weekend. Nothing but Sunny/Mostly Sunny for as far out as they go. 

Sounds like Melbourne (Orlando)  NWS filled in for the zone forecasts today.  Just for posterity sake, here is the GFS through Monday.  Could be 100 % wrong with the ridge location but that is a lot of mostly sunny falling to the ground.

image.thumb.png.98bfbc6c09382e96b7f12bea8500528b.png

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CTP going with full sun and 92 here this weekend. Nothing but Sunny/Mostly Sunny for as far out as they go. 

CTP also looks like they’re putting MDT in the 80s on Monday, which the latest models don’t support at all.

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

@Bubbler86 @TimB84 

CTP's own AFD doesn't really support their going forecast. The discussion is filled with talk about increasing threats for showers/convection over the weekend. 

Hmm. 

 

I was wondering how they could just write off the chance of showers.  They could just be forecasting and getting it right while we are modeling but glad that they are not just looking at the EC and closing the books on anything else. 

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11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, and the NFL always tries to keep them relevant as long as possible.

The refs always keep the Cowboys in the games as long as possible... it is terrible to witness it every year.

Now Blizz come on, if the refs were keeping the Cowboys in games we would not of had our last Super Bowl win since 1995. :D When I was a young guy, had hair not grey. LOL. But we do agree on SNOW! 

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22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Bubbler86 @TimB84 

CTP's own AFD doesn't really support their going forecast. The discussion is filled with talk about increasing threats for showers/convection over the weekend. 

Hmm. 

 

But what percentage of the general public even knows what the AFD is? If you’re conveying a message through your forecast to the general public, who wants to go swimming/boating/ camping/outdoor dining at breweries/etc. this weekend, wouldn’t you want to throw a 20-30% into the zones?

Edit: on second thought, what percentage of the general public uses the NWS as their primary source for weather information as opposed to, say, the weather app on their iPhone?

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

@Bubbler86 @TimB84 

CTP's own AFD doesn't really support their going forecast. The discussion is filled with talk about increasing threats for showers/convection over the weekend. 

Hmm. 

 

Nam and GFS both leave me mostly high and dry for the weekend but you are in the goods. GFS shifted the focus/ridge slightly back East.  

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