oconeexman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Qpf are light according to the NAM but underdone in my opinion as it has been in all previous events for mby this year. Ths southern storm never gets to neutral it looks like or barely does. Let's see what happens and let Robert interpret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Qpf are light according to the NAM but underdone in my opinion as it has been in all previous events for mby this year. Ths southern storm never gets to neutral it looks like or barely does. Let's see what happens and let Robert interpret. The NAM is almost always wrong on QPF totals. It has a dry bias imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Definitely like the orientation of the 500mb features compared to any of the NAMs previous solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 By 36,39 the northern stream overpowers our system basically to my eye. hm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I agree. But it is too late. Looks better but we are getting close to the door. Baby steps.. Definitely like the orientation of the 500mb features compared to any of the NAMs previous solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM pretty much shears out the Southern Stream S/W. It isn't all that different then earlier runs with that. We get a strung out weak system as a result with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 NAM pretty much shears out the Southern Stream S/W. It isn't all that different then earlier runs with that. We get a strung out weak system as a result with it. I think the Northern might be a little overdone. I really don't think our system will be "that" weak. Lets see what the GFS does with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackmet Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Good junk of energy coming down the west side. Too late for West NC but could be nice for HWY 1 and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 I think the Northern might be a little overdone. I really don't think our system will be "that" weak. Lets see what the GFS does with this. Possibly but I am just stating what I see in the model verbatim. I am not saying this is what will actually happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 by 45, we have a 1004mb off the coast of nc. a good bit off the coast at that.. but still getting moisture well into the coast of nc.. just UGH. i really think the northern is overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 our system is looking pretty healthy in TX. Hopefully it is not going to be as weak as the NAM says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 24, 2010 Author Share Posted December 24, 2010 New thread is up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 New thread is up. http://www.americanw...stmas-storm-vi/ You may get some flak for creating a new thread during a model run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 the nam closes off 5H a little too far east and north really to bring the Gulf system far west but it does graze the coast briefly. Not much qpf but about .10" Carolinas and central Ga and .25" sandhills and eastern NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You may get some flak for creating a new thread during a model run . It's the NAM so I wouldn't call that a "model" run. LOL. Just kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 about time to just start concentrating on the RUC water vapor and radar trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 the nam closes off 5H a little too far east and north really to bring the Gulf system far west but it does graze the coast briefly. Not much qpf but about .10" Carolinas and central Ga and .25" sandhills and eastern NC A little dissappointing but i'm holding on to the fact it has undershot NeGa and NwSc on almost all small events this year on qpf. The difference in .1 and .25 is huge for this system and the results on the ground, we can only hope it's off again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 A new thread has been started. Enjoy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 You are correct sir.... about time to just start concentrating on the RUC water vapor and radar trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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