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February 18-19 Event


hazwoper
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27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You cant just cherry pick the snowmaps with the hottest pinks to fit an agenda. Like Wentz said, we have time...30 hours....but this didn't just tick the wrong way, we saw some large jumps at 0z so far headed the wrong direction. Less juice,  less waa, coastal destroys thermals.

 

8 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said:

We must be looking at something different. All the 0z runs so far have been colder. All still depict a general 4-8” snowfall over most of the region.  In fact the 0z Nam was its coldest run yet... 

 

Just now, RedSky said:

My 0z take is Ralph is go MECS or go home hehe

Weenie jump in our hour of triumph? Dare, say are the words of a man sick of snow! 

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25 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Gonna be interesting to see how this storm ends up evolving. The NAM has a big front end thump and then a bunch of snizzle. While the GFS and RGEM just give us a nice long-duration event with lots of light to moderate snow.

my feelings as well.  I am having real good laughs on how panicking is setting in for some of the youngsters. This is a run of the mill overrunning snowstorm event and who ever gets dry slotted also gets the majority of the snizzle.  Likely to see heavy banding set up before noon on Thursday with intermittent periods of  snizzle adjacent to where downsloping is occurring near the heavier bands. 

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18 minutes ago, Snowcane21 said:

We must be looking at something different. All the 0z runs so far have been colder. All still depict a general 4-8” snowfall over most of the region.  In fact the 0z Nam was its coldest run yet... 

Also the nam has been pretty great of late, it sniffed out the last system being amped and west way before the other models. I'm not jumping off the ledge until it backs off or these trends continue. Any time you see such a drastic change on models like the gfs or rgem, I always wait another cycle before getting concerned. 

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Just now, Albedoman said:

my feelings as well.  I am having real good laughs on how panicking is setting in for some of the youngsters. This is a run of the mill overrunning snowstorm event and who ever gets dry slotted also gets the majority of the snizzle.  Likely to see heavy banding set up before noon on Thursday with intermittent periods of  snizzle adjacent to where downsloping is occurring near the heavier bands. 

Hand raised- did it one better had snizzle under the death band. Made out ok by the end..

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8 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

my feelings as well.  I am having real good laughs on how panicking is setting in for some of the youngsters. This is a run of the mill overrunning snowstorm event and who ever gets dry slotted also gets the majority of the snizzle.  Likely to see heavy banding set up before noon on Thursday with intermittent periods of  snizzle adjacent to where downsloping is occurring near the heavier bands. 

In my limited experience as a youngster I whole heartedly concur. The NAM tends to score well with these over running events! 

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2 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

I think both Ralph and Wentz (& others) are suffering from MBO (model burnout) which is highly contagious folks...

Keep your distance and “LET IT PLAY OUT‼️“ 

We’ve even had the models change around 24 hours from storm time. So yes let’s let things play out. 

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10 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

I think both Ralph and Wentz (& others) are suffering from MBO (model burnout) which is highly contagious folks...

Keep your distance and “LET IT PLAY OUT”‼️

More like PTBS... Post Traumatic Bust Syndrome. It's a real condition where one assumes the worst based on past model busts in the same timeframe. :lol::weenie:

 

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8 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Where do you get temps or ptypes for the NAVGEM? Not on TT that I've been able to find.

P.S. We love you Ralph!

https://www.woweather.com/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=us&MENU=0000000000&CONT=namk&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=6&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=

Use thicknesses and 850s. Old school ptype deterministic approach.

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