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Kmlwx

2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion

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storms today? mr map had to go out of town for a few days to visit his ailing father. kiddo wants to swim later... 

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2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

We need to hope for a ring of fire style ridge. I had some nice rumbles on thunder last night. It's been a pretty "odd" spring IMO. But maybe the combination of still coming out of the COVID funk and the cicadas have thrown me off. Other than a few isolated spots - this has been a pretty low-key severe season. 

There are so many damn cicadas flying around that in has caused convection inhibition.   

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58 minutes ago, mappy said:

storms today? mr map had to go out of town for a few days to visit his ailing father. kiddo wants to swim later... 

yup. thunder in the distance

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On 6/8/2021 at 3:16 PM, Kmlwx said:

I'm not seeing much of anything to get super excited about severe weather wise. Other than general thunderstorms it looks like nothing big is on the horizon. 

Afternoon LWX AFD says Monday maybe...

There continues to be some
disagreement in the ensembles on timing and intensity of any precip
and convection possible for the day on Monday. GEFS has a mean of
800 j/kg of CAPE with some members as high as 2500+ j/kg. Shear
looks to be a bit high with around 40 to 50 knots. This will need to
be monitored as we get closer to the event as some models suggest a
drier solution for the time period. A secondary front will pass
through Monday night and bring another round of showers, not really
expected much in terms of convection given the nocturnal passage. A
few uncertainties remain for the extended period with timing and
intensity of impacts but will continue to monitor as we get closer
to the events.

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Don't sleep on the Monday shortwave. A compact, digging shortwave embedded in NW flow aloft possibly intercepting a plume of moisture and instability fed in ahead of the wave. One of the major questions is timing. A bit earlier and this could easily cause some significant trouble, given the progged shear and instability values progged on the NAM (and trending on the GFS).

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33 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Don't sleep on the Monday shortwave. A compact, digging shortwave embedded in NW flow aloft possibly intercepting a plume of moisture and instability fed in ahead of the wave. One of the major questions is timing. A bit earlier and this could easily cause some significant trouble, given the progged shear and instability values progged on the NAM (and trending on the GFS).

I'd like to throw all my eggs in this basket! 

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There's a SLGT risk for severe wind along and west of the blue ridge mountains where instability is most likely to be highest (MLCAPE  >1000J/kg) along with modest bulk shear. Areas immediately west of I-95 are in a MRGL risk.

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