John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 That 1951 event was just a monster winter storm in the mid state. It hit from the Plateau west. My grandfather recorded 1.6 inches of ice and 3 inches of snow from it. And that was less than half what Nashville received. He recorded a temperature of 27 degrees the morning of February 1st and 12 by 6pm. Nashville was 10-15 degrees colder. The most amazing thing was the far east side was warm, Knoxville was mid 40s into the day on February 1st and crashed as soon as the precip stopped. Tri was in the 60s. Must have been downsloping. Tri fell from 62 degrees to 13 by 11:59 February 1st. 49 degrees in a day has to be one of the biggest drops there ever. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Euro more suppressed and colder toward next weekends 1st storm. Not as amped. 2nd storm appears to have more energy and hass one hell of an ice storm in south Georgia. Starts at 204 and is still going at 222. Some moisture is starting to reach TN by 216. I don't have any ice maps, but I'm sure it would be devastating in that area. East TN does get some snow toward the end of the run from the 2nd system. Probably 3-6 inches for all of East TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Shows as the LP starts up the east coast it bring up a warm nose in Eastern Parts,on to the next run,sure it will be different ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 00Z FEB05 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 00Z 05-FEB 6.1 3.6 133 7614 18010 FRI 06Z 05-FEB 6.2 3.9 133 6502 22008 FRI 12Z 05-FEB 2.0 -1.1 130 950 29006 0.14 FRI 18Z 05-FEB 4.7 -4.8 130 1070 26004 0.00 SAT 00Z 06-FEB 2.4 -3.2 131 2171 23004 0.00 SAT 06Z 06-FEB -0.6 -2.7 131 2319 21004 0.00 SAT 12Z 06-FEB -2.3 -1.8 131 2712 22003 0.00 SAT 18Z 06-FEB 7.3 -1.6 132 2859 11001 0.00 SUN 00Z 07-FEB 2.7 -3.0 130 1612 16004 0.07 SUN 06Z 07-FEB 1.0 -0.7 130 2032 01003 0.11 SUN 12Z 07-FEB 0.5 -3.6 130 586 34003 0.22 SUN 18Z 07-FEB 4.7 -2.4 131 1323 04004 0.01 MON 00Z 08-FEB 1.7 -2.2 131 1966 09003 0.00 MON 06Z 08-FEB -2.1 0.8 131 5375 08003 0.00 MON 12Z 08-FEB -2.8 -0.4 131 4579 12004 0.00 MON 18Z 08-FEB 10.1 2.4 133 6786 23002 0.00 TUE 00Z 09-FEB 4.6 3.8 134 7801 11005 0.00 TUE 06Z 09-FEB 4.8 5.8 133 8410 17005 0.00 TUE 12Z 09-FEB 5.2 6.7 134 8161 11003 0.01 TUE 18Z 09-FEB 14.2 7.3 135 7646 23009 0.05 WED 00Z 10-FEB 7.0 1.8 132 5695 30007 0.08 WED 06Z 10-FEB 0.2 -3.1 129 214 33005 0.01 WED 12Z 10-FEB -4.2 -4.9 127 0 01004 0.00 WED 18Z 10-FEB 1.7 -3.7 129 175 35003 0.00 THU 00Z 11-FEB -1.1 -2.6 129 207 05004 0.00 THU 06Z 11-FEB -4.4 -1.8 129 10 03003 0.00 THU 12Z 11-FEB -5.6 -3.9 128 0 04003 0.00 THU 18Z 11-FEB 2.0 -6.5 128 291 36004 0.00 FRI 00Z 12-FEB -1.5 -8.7 128 7 01005 0.00 FRI 06Z 12-FEB -5.7 -10.0 126 0 02007 0.00 FRI 12Z 12-FEB -10.4 -10.6 124 0 02007 0.00 FRI 18Z 12-FEB -3.2 -11.0 125 0 01007 0.00 SAT 00Z 13-FEB -6.4 -11.6 125 0 02006 0.00 SAT 06Z 13-FEB -9.3 -9.9 125 0 03007 0.00 SAT 12Z 13-FEB -9.9 -7.3 125 0 03007 0.00 SAT 18Z 13-FEB -1.4 -5.2 127 6 04005 0.00 SUN 00Z 14-FEB -1.5 -5.2 128 0 02004 0.00 SUN 06Z 14-FEB -2.6 -1.9 128 1177 03003 0.08 SUN 12Z 14-FEB -2.9 -0.3 129 3836 04004 0.25 SUN 18Z 14-FEB 0.1 0.5 130 4812 02004 0.12 MON 00Z 15-FEB 0.2 0.6 130 5111 00003 0.17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 The Euro is odd to me in that you're very very rarely going to see frozen along the gulf coast with temperatures that warm here. At 210 its 29 in Knoxville and 29 in Columbus Georgia 400+ miles south. At 216 it's 31 in Knoxville to Trj and thats some of the warmest temperatures in the entire south on either side of the Apps. Anything is possible but I just don't see it playing out that way. To get cold down to the GOM and have frozen precip there you usually have to be in the 10s and single digits here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 If the temps are going to be as cold as advertised late next week AND there is moisture my gut tells me Chattanooga will be looking south to see the white stuff. I've seen way too many good snows get suppressed just to our south when we finally get cold air in our area and moisture from the gulf. Plenty of time to feel this one in. Let's hope for temps in the upper 20's to low 30's if we all get the moisture. After that bring in the motherload of cold so it can have staying power.Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 12z GFS has a light wintery mix over middle and western forum areas just after hour 100. There are at least two waves of this. Very icy look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 That is a major overrunning event in middle and west TN which is being portrayed on the 12z GFS. Wave three of ice now inbound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The 12z GFS has a light wintery mix over middle and western forum areas just after hour 100. There are at least two waves of this. Very icy look.It almost doesn’t break apart the waves this run. Almost continuous moisture of some intensity for the forum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, 1234snow said: It almost doesn’t break apart the waves this run. Almost continuous moisture of some intensity for the forum. 1054 hp rolling in around 168. That is a nasty, nasty setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Sheesh. So tornadoes and Damaging winds and now ice. Seriously I think we’ve had enough damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Big 1057 high in WY at 186. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That is a major overrunning event in middle and west TN which is being portrayed on the 12z GFS. Wave three of ice now inbound. Definite icey' GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z FEB05 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK FRI 12Z 05-FEB -1.5 -3.0 1015 88 7 547 535 FRI 18Z 05-FEB 6.1 -3.9 1016 48 41 0.00 544 531 SAT 00Z 06-FEB 3.6 -3.6 1015 63 54 0.00 544 532 SAT 06Z 06-FEB 1.8 -2.8 1018 72 31 0.00 547 533 SAT 12Z 06-FEB 0.8 -2.3 1019 75 24 0.00 549 534 SAT 18Z 06-FEB 8.0 -1.5 1018 54 81 0.00 551 536 SUN 00Z 07-FEB 5.0 -4.0 1013 76 97 0.01 549 539 SUN 06Z 07-FEB 2.2 -3.2 1013 96 97 0.34 544 533 SUN 12Z 07-FEB -3.6 -4.6 1019 86 38 0.06 547 531 SUN 18Z 07-FEB 0.7 -3.8 1023 69 21 0.00 550 532 MON 00Z 08-FEB -1.1 -1.7 1023 79 34 0.00 553 535 MON 06Z 08-FEB -2.5 -1.1 1025 85 40 0.00 558 539 MON 12Z 08-FEB -2.7 1.8 1024 87 29 0.00 560 542 MON 18Z 08-FEB 8.3 1.9 1022 59 29 0.00 562 544 TUE 00Z 09-FEB 6.0 4.3 1018 84 46 0.00 562 548 TUE 06Z 09-FEB 5.2 2.0 1019 93 59 0.00 563 547 TUE 12Z 09-FEB 5.1 1.6 1019 96 27 0.00 563 547 TUE 18Z 09-FEB 7.2 2.1 1020 87 82 0.01 565 548 WED 00Z 10-FEB 1.7 3.8 1021 92 94 0.05 564 547 WED 06Z 10-FEB -0.6 4.2 1021 92 99 0.06 564 547 WED 12Z 10-FEB -2.8 3.4 1022 90 93 0.08 562 545 WED 18Z 10-FEB -1.4 3.5 1022 87 51 0.00 563 545 THU 00Z 11-FEB -1.2 2.8 1021 92 85 0.00 563 546 THU 06Z 11-FEB -1.6 5.1 1021 92 83 0.02 564 547 THU 12Z 11-FEB -2.3 5.4 1019 93 99 0.07 564 548 THU 18Z 11-FEB -0.8 5.3 1019 93 99 0.09 564 548 FRI 00Z 12-FEB -1.4 4.1 1017 94 100 0.03 561 547 FRI 06Z 12-FEB -3.2 2.0 1017 94 99 0.26 558 545 FRI 12Z 12-FEB -6.4 -0.9 1018 93 100 0.06 553 539 FRI 18Z 12-FEB -4.3 -6.8 1020 90 95 0.03 549 534 SAT 00Z 13-FEB -9.2 -12.5 1024 93 93 0.06 544 525 SAT 06Z 13-FEB -16.1 -16.2 1031 92 83 0.02 537 514 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 With that flow, it might not be done with the mischief yet... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I think what is happening is the SER is going to fight east of the Apps. To me, this looks like cold moving across the entire forum area and banking up against the Apps in reality. As BNA noted(think that is right) having a front draped SW to NE is a recipe for winter weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The trend with the 12z GFS is to push further south with the cold post 100. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 So here is why this is so difficult to predict. Think about how a hurricane when it is approaching the coast at a 90 degree angle, the cone is easy to set for the most part. Now, if the hurricane is running parallel to the coast...much tougher. Any degree of change to a storm running parallel to the coast could result in hundreds of miles of changes in landfall forecasts. Pretty much the same deal with this overrunning event next week. The slightest change in angle of that boundary is moving that frozen boundary all over the place. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Man, going to get ridiculously cold if we get frozen before that cold shot. The scenario is there where we could have wide spread power outages prior to a really severe cold outbreak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yeah, looks like it could possibly be single digit highs and lows in the negatives for much of the region! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Give it a day or so, but may be time for a separate thread for that cold shot and potential overrunning event. If modeling is even halfway correct, that event could be significant for many in the forum area - if not ice, then severe cold. Really tracking two events right now...the system this weekend and the cold/potential overruning event later next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Man, going to get ridiculously cold if we get frozen before that cold shot. The scenario is there where we could have wide spread power outages prior to a really severe cold outbreak. Yeah. Not a good look. Might need to gas up the generator we got after the tornadoes last March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just wow at the gfs cold, 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bigbald said: Just wow at the gfs cold, It is no joke. Just looking at Knoxville, we are in the single digits and negatives for 30+ hours. Nashville was pushing 40 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Y You don't see a 1040 HP sitting over Memphis everyday..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 I cant see beyond 240, but, for example, wise va was low single digits and deeply negative for like 4 days straight. This is ice age type stuff lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Wurbus said: Y You don't see a 1040 HP sitting over Memphis everyday..... @AMZ8990, that right over your house? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z CMC also has the overrunning event for later next week. It is a bit further east and less cold. I think we are looking at the potential for the front stalling at the spine of the Apps and/or the Plateau. Edit: Well some of it must get past the Apps as there is also a decent CAD signature for NC during part of that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The CMC has 4-5 waves of frozen precip which slowly press the boundary eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 To say this would not be catastrophic and dangerous with that much ice and cold temps to me is an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12z CMC is very icy for the eastern valley areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 By hr 305, when the damn finally breaks and low 50s return to large swath of tn, I predict mankini Monday cause 50s will feel about like 80 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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