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February/March 2021 - Frigid or Flop? Pattern/Longterm Forecast Thread.


John1122
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5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Not sure who is feeling froggy, but we likely need to jump on a last minute thread dedicated to Sunday

I nominate @Stovepipe with the caveat that he has to start it with an epic photoshop involving Johnny Cash, the Doof Warrior from Mad Max, and the birthday cake dog. On second thought that one may need to be saved for later, lol. 

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Out to 30, the energy coming at us is much stronger on the GFS in Idaho vs. the Euro.  Yes, Idaho.  This is the piece of energy that is set to make it to northeast TN in 42 hours.  This thing is SCOOTING!  I will say the energy is a tad more prominent than on the 0z Euro.  Still doesn't look anything like the American modeling suite.

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Will try to show you what I was looking at. It’s closer than I thought when watching it in real time...... at 500. First the GFS at 30, 54, and 66.
40b243d739586dbb44664138c05b383f.jpg
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The vort looks a little more pronounced than on the Euro. Also, you can see the speed of this rascal. By 66 it’s in a great spot for producing precip across TN and the surface shows that as a nice little snow.

Now, the Euro at the same times.

05a2dd08e8c794be5f15ea79b83ea885.jpg
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Very similar placements wrt timing. Maybe a touch sharper on the American modeling which likely accounts for more snow shown.

Threat looks legit, congrats to the GFSv16, which has had this for a couple of days now.


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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think it is saying that the more amped solutions that we have seen so far today are more likely. Just have to hope it doesn’t get too amped and nail Louisville lol

I think there has been something wrong with modeling for about 48 hours....have seemed way, way to benign given then pattern.

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3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think it is saying that the more amped solutions that we have seen so far today are more likely. Just have to hope it doesn’t get too amped and nail Louisville lol

That's how I take it too.  The thing is, at our latitude................ really............. the GFS and GFSv16 is about perfect.  Nice vort pass, goes negative in a perfect place, and is moisture laden.  If it digs more, the storm is likely bigger, but warm air advection likely makes this a Kentucky to Virginia snow storm vs a Tennessee Valley snow storm.

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I don't know.  The SLP pops off Charleston, SC.  It has plenty of room to correct northwest.  Would likely mean the entire storm spins up and we could have a very potent inland runner.  Confluence would be earlier which could really force that thing to go neg tilt.   tnweathernut is far better with that stuff than I!   

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