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John1122

Jan 11-12 Mississippi Mauler: Will it or won't it?

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Figured with this within 72 hours of laying down some Mississippi snow love we may as well have a separate thread for it. 

Virtually all modeling is now hitting parts of Mississippi with a good bit of snow that washes out as it heads NE into Alabama and Tennessee. Several models who are performing well this winter have some N Miss and West Tennessee love to share.  

The latest RGEM was very bullish with the entire western half of the state seeing snow at 84 with a good bit down in N Miss and West Tennessee. 

GFS is so progressive this year it can't be relied upon in the d2-7ish range.  Ironically it actually nailed the Christmas event at D9/10 then lost it to the East until the last minute.  

So ride a Canadian/Euro blend and hope for victory! Good luck to the western valley with this one!

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15 minutes ago, Tobiewx said:

Let’s hope this one works out for the mid south, not betting the farm on it :) 

Never wager on snow anywhere in the South but this one looks really good for at least part of Mississippi. I really hope the RGEM is correct and it just smokes you guys. 

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The 18z GFSV16, which has been working better than the GFS moved its snow shield a good bit N in North Mississippi from 12z to 18z. Also much better for NW Alabama than the prior run. The track is similar but it was better organized longer at 18z.  The Euro from 0z last night to 12z today was a major improvement for N Miss too. 

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

12z

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

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1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The 18z GFSV16, which has been working better than the GFS moved its snow shield a good bit N in North Mississippi from 12z to 18z. Also much better for NW Alabama than the prior run. The track is similar but it was better organized longer at 18z.  The Euro from 0z last night to 12z today was a major improvement for N Miss too. 

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

12z

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

Do you feel like this may move back northwest any with its track? Meaning do you think there is more of this coming north west than it’s has already done?

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8 minutes ago, Tobiewx said:

Do you feel like this may move back northwest any with its track? Meaning do you think there is more of this coming north west than it’s has already done?

It's very possible. The Canadian, RGEM show it there and the Euro jumped well NW too. The GFS is close and it's been missing way to the East so far this season. 

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4 hours ago, John1122 said:

3k agrees, still snowing over west and even some of middle Tennessee at this point. It went for another 12 hours or so on the 12k.

snku_acc.us_ov.png

Yeah, the NAM definitely likes this system right now.  Good trends on their overnight models for north Ms and west TN.  Saw where a winter storm watch is out in Shreveport LA, I’m sure it’s beem quite a while since that happened down there.  NWS is creeping east north east with their watches and warnings so they must think what the models are showing has some credence 

 

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12z NAMs like y'all out that way too. Not a huge difference from overnight runs, so no pics for now. 

Just minor differences. Still a good look for you guys out that way... the surface maps suggest a classic (though weakening) northwest snow shield. Reasonable when looking at 500.
89de6b44791a3fa4a3cf951968e7fe36.jpg


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40 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12 RGEM was a still about where it was overnight, but with a little more umph to it:

sn10_acc.us_se.png

WRF-ArW looks pretty similar too in terms of storm track.  Precip shield blossoms better as it moves north also.  Take that with a huge grain of salt as it is the WRF though.  

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WRF-ArW looks pretty similar too in terms of storm track.  Precip shield blossoms better as it moves north also.  Take that with a huge grain of salt as it is the WRF though.  

I know we look at the WRF for fun or confirmation to other mods but they have done well this year. They handled the Christmas Eve storm really nice. It was the only mods that had the lollipop over N Knox Co of 5-6” and it nailed it. Also this last storm it was consistent saying the valley wasn’t getting much of anything and we didn’t.


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Don’t look now, but the RGEM at 0z is trying to stretch the snow NE even into E TN now. Light event, but at 18z it didn’t have that. Used to be, when you’d see these depictions like this, you’d know that it would move into NE MS northeastward through N AL and into E TN. So, I’ve kept this in the back of my mind so far and wondered about it. Now, it may have been a fluke run, as nothing else really shows that much frozen. However, I think the euro and NAM, to a degree have been toying with that idea. So, for what it’s worth, here’s the 0z RGEM.

 

030536ED-6223-4DB5-B061-52F4A6FA341C.jpeg

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MEG says 1.5 inches or more possible across their north Central and NE Miss counties. Possibly more if it stays cooler Monday. Says most of the area will see light to moderate snow falling for Monday morning commute. Hope it over performs for all you guys. 

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JAN has a very detailed afd this AM about the system. Mentions that this is a non traditional setup for snow with the Sfc low in the gulf and the upper and mid level lows displaced to the north. This is “throwing off” as they say, many of the normal winter storm conceptual models. The afd goes on to talk about a lot of the other unusual things related to this system. Worth a read, even if it doesn’t impact your area, as there is a lot of interesting wording there. 

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z Euro:

giphy.gif

 

giphy.gif

Good storm for Deep South folks, not expecting anything in MBY.  I hope we can get more cold air in place before this storm track that’s embedded changes up on us.  

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My buddy that sent me the picture is just south of Ruston. I got him listed as “Nick”. He’s about to get hammered. c5cce39aab7321c895ccb9e7b147d37c.png


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Well I think the answer to the thread title turns out to be right! It will. That is a wall of snow entering the state of Mississippi down almost the entire western side of the state.

1DC0F715-BB4B-4501-B7B3-5D122DFB560F.jpeg

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As we get closer...modeling is slowly ticking upwards for southern middle TN/plateau..may squeeze out an inch from it. 0z RGEM picking up on the increase in moisture

Screenshot_20210110-222841_Chrome.jpg

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Well I think the answer to the thread title turns out to be right! It will. That is a wall of snow entering the state of Mississippi down almost the entire western side of the state.
1DC0F715-BB4B-4501-B7B3-5D122DFB560F.thumb.jpeg.e90daec5e4781946e9c14b243b20dbd8.jpeg

60 dBZ snow returns in that band. That is incredible for anywhere let alone Mississippi.

Congratulations to all our Southern friends on an epic event!
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