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Interior NW & NE Burbs 2021


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While I'm generally happy with how the forecast is unfolding for the interior, the currently favored closer to coast track would temper the duration aspect of the storm for our area. A 700mb low track effectively over NYC would mean transient rather than quasi-stationary banding, with the dominant deformation zone not really pivoting until it's way upstate.  On the 00z hi-res NAM, I-84 doesn't begin snowing in earnest until around 6 am Monday; dry air starts working its way down to beneath the DGZ by 10 pm. That's obviously a nice comfy window for accumulations, but nothing extraordinary... and I think we all know how "long duration" storms usually work out. Ratios look fine during the meat of the storm – a little better than climo, limited by a rather shallow growth zone and a rather deep riming layer, but generally a good cross-hairs signature.

A first call would look something like TEB ∞, HPN 18", SWF 15", POU 12".

CYzEJtA.png

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20 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Downsloping off the Taconics could be a real thorn in my side. Legendary for OC though... 18+ there seems more likely than not.

 

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Yes.  I am keeping in mind different forces pro and con that influence accumulation.  A good 12-18 for Dutchess seems reasonable, hopefully closer to 18 if we can stay under some good bands. 

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Yes.  I am keeping in mind different forces pro and con that influence accumulation.  A good 12-18 for Dutchess seems reasonable, hopefully closer to 18 if we can stay under some good bands. 

I’m reading this correctly that MMU is going to get hit pretty well?


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4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I got caught in that weird downsloping in March 18, eastern PA got crushed and it was a very run of the mill light snowstorm here.  That sucked!

Was that March 7th? Trying to remember how that went down here. I think the one before that was the super wet snow with power outages, right?

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20 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Was that March 7th? Trying to remember how that went down here. I think the one before that was the super wet snow with power outages, right?

March 7th I recorded 12.1”, wasn’t that one. I see it was March 2nd, I had 1.2”. My notes say “snow at dawn changed to rain and flipped back and forth, back to snow in the afternoon but stuck in between bands, central and eastern Orange missed out while other areas got rocked”

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