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10 year anniversary of the Christmas 2010 snowstorm


NavarreDon
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First off Merry Christmas to all of you!

Spent some time this morning reminiscing by going back thru the old Christmas 2010 threads. Lot's of new faces but, lot's of us who rode that roller coaster. If you have time check those old threads & or post your memories of this classic! Mine were the gut wrenching model runs. The highs, lows, & highs. Waking up before my kids on Christmas morning to catch up the discussion threads,  then seeing actual snow falling in Weaverville, NC, my all time favorite AFD by GSP that started with "Sometimes I think I should have been a farmer!", to finishing with over a foot of snow. What are some of your favorite memories?.......has it really been 10 years!!!

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Found some old GSP discos that just bring back the excitement!

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --

THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE VEERED DRAMATICALLY BACK INTO THE HEAVY
SNOW CAMP FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NE GA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A NRN STREAM STREAM SHORT WAVE IS DIGGING MORE THAN THE MODELS HAD
ORIGINALLY PREDICTED. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS
INDICATED BY THE INCREASING DARK BAND ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IS DOWNSTREAM UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
QG FORCING. A BAND OF 600 MB FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDS ACROSS TN AND
INTO WRN NC. THIS BAND IS MOST CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PCPN OVER
SRN TN. THE FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 18
UTC...WHICH MATCHES THE INCREASING PCPN TREND. THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF NOW HAVE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PCPN OVER
THE MTNS OF NC/SC/GA AND THE NC FOOTHILLS THROUGH 00 UTC TODAY. WITH
A SNOW RATIO OF 12:1...THIS WOULD YIELD OVER 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN
SPOTS. WE/VE BEEN PLAYING CATCHUP WITH THIS EVENT...AND THE 6 INCH
TOTALS I HAVE IN THE CENTRAL AND SRN NC MTNS TODAY WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES AT LEAST. THIS AMOUNT OF
SNOW IS LIKELY TO DOWN TREES...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES AND WILL MAKE
CHRISTMAS TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE MTNS BY LATER IN
THE MORNING....WITH THE NC FOOTHILLS EXPERIENCING SIMILAR CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE DAY. IN SHORT...THIS IS GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT AND
DANGEROUS WINTER STORM FOR THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY.

THEN THERE IS PART TWO. A POTENT SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE...WHICH IS
ONLY INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY SNOW TODAY...WILL BE
PICKED UP BY THE NRN STREAM WAVE. AS THE NRN STREAM WAVE IS SLOWER
AND DEEPER...IT LOOKS TO PHASE MORE WITH THE SRN STREAM ENERGY THAN
ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. AS STRONG DEEP LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...A PIVOTING BAND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE FA. BOTH NAM AND
GFS CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A GOOD AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV CROSSING THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT TOWARD 0600 UTC. AS THIS HAPPENS...A PERIOD
OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR AND INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UPSTATE. FOR NOW I/M JUST GOING WITH 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THESE AREAS...WHICH IS STILL ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WINTER STORM WARNING UP THE I-85 AND I-77 CORRIDORS. HOWEVER...IF
THIS WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT AND PHASING CONTINUES...THEN HEAVIER SNOW
IS VERY POSSIBLE.

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And here it is!!!

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --SOMETIMES I THINK I SHOULD HAVE BEEN A FARMER. AT LONG LAST...WE
/THINK/ WE ARE GETTING A SOLID HANDLE ON THE UNFOLDING WINTER
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SHARPLY AFTER
THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO...AS MUCH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE DOMINATED BY
MESOSCALE AND EVEN CONVECTIVE SCALE PROCESSES.

AS OF 16Z...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS WELL ESTABLISHED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DRIFT/EXPAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
WITH TIME. IN FACT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED
PRECIP WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD PROGRESS UNTIL
THE SURFACE LOW MAKES THE JUMP TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
EVENING. THEREFORE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP WHERE ITS
ALREADY FALLING...AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL NEED AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT.
WE WILL NOW ADVERTISE 8-12 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND BUMP THE I-40 PORTION OF THE
PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS TO 5 TO 8 INCHES. AS USUAL...THE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CAVEAT APPLIES.

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I'm not sure about the Carolina side, but southeast Tennessee was somewhat locked in a couple days prior. That's pretty good for Southeast modeling. From 2-4 inches was forecast around here and verified Christmas morning - mostly during daylight hours.

Points north and east got more, and like the Carolinas the forecast probably ebbed and flowed. I think I recall that deal. Chatty got blanked in 2020 while northeast Tennessee got the second white Christmas in 10 years. Probably be another 30 around here. From 1969 to 2010 was 41 years. 

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If I remember correctly, some of the long range modeling showed the possibility of a white Christmas early on.  I told my wife that we’d have snow on the ground by Christmas Day evening.  She thought I was nuts.  Then the models backed off and I became nervous.  But it happened.  I think we ended up with about 6”.

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2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Yes I vaguely recall the 2010 system was there Day 5-6, got lost a little bit Day 3-4, then came back by Day 2. Not atypical. 

This year for KCHA was always a whiff from Day 10 in. At least the fcst was accurate, even if sad, lol!

If I recall correctly.  Christmas Day for the most part  was cold and cloudy. It started flurries. Just  after mid day late afternoon.  Towards Danville they didn't get as much. 

But for the most part it was powder. By the 27th it was pretty much gone. 

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