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AMZ8990

January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.

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Big run of the Euro on the 2nd wave for Western areas. Was much better in general than 12z. Still has the same issues as 12z more east but overall a huge winter storm for parts of the forum. 

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I’ll take that any day in north Mississippi, the Euro just keeps inching that low north every run since last nights run.

My concern is, how much further north will she come

F606C4E0-3FD9-4243-B8BB-3B6C408F4777.png

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5 minutes ago, Tobiewx said:

imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486cI’ll take that any day in north Mississippi, the Euro just keeps inching that low north every run since last nights run.

My concern is, how much further north will she come

F606C4E0-3FD9-4243-B8BB-3B6C408F4777.png

Right now the EURO is the furthest north and west, which is one of it's biases. GFS is way East which is one of its biases. The Canadian was middle ground and was basically great for Mississippi and most of Tennessee. Especially along and S of 40. 

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6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Right now the EURO is the furthest north and west, which is one of it's biases. GFS is way East which is one of its biases. The Canadian was middle ground and was basically great for Mississippi and most of Tennessee. Especially along and S of 40. 

Only 5 more days to go :)

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This would be one of the best winter periods in years on the forum were it to verify. Unless you were in that small screw zone too far east for one wave and too far west for the other. To have this on the Euro a few years ago I'd have been super confident. Super wary instead!

sn10_acc.us_ov.png

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6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Right now the EURO is the furthest north and west, which is one of it's biases. GFS is way East which is one of its biases. The Canadian was middle ground and was basically great for Mississippi and most of Tennessee. Especially along and S of 40. 

True, but it seems like all 3 models are kind a trending nw some. I agree the canadian has been the most steady, but it even seemed slightly more north the last run. No doubt there is still time for jogs either way but we are getting closer. I am just glad we got systems to watch.

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1 minute ago, snowmaker said:

True, but it seems like all 3 models are kind a trending nw some. I agree the canadian has been the most steady, but it even seemed slightly more north the last run. No doubt there is still time for jogs either way but we are getting closer. I am just glad we got systems to watch.

Well it was down towards the Yucatan a few runs ago, so definitely north!  With the blocking over the top there's generally a limit to how far north it's going to make it though. 

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Overnight Ukie:

giphy.gif

 

Looks like, at least for now, the difference is energy over the midwest that turns the midlevel flow out of the south and mess up thermals. Ukie doesn't have it in the same place some of the other globals do:

Ukie:

giphy.gif

 

CMC (as the most prominent example):

giphy.gif

 

 

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I think some of the wishy-washy, waffly-doffly SE ridgeish looks at H5 we've been seeing in the 10 days+ range, may have to do with another Pac jet extension, triggered by a Siberian High descent and subsequent low formation in the pac (much smaller than the last one). 

High descent circled in black and low development circled in red:

giphy.gif

 

and here is what happens with the jet, notice that it gets stronger then weakens and gets more broken up:

giphy.gif

 

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8 hours ago, Tobiewx said:

imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486cI’ll take that any day in north Mississippi, the Euro just keeps inching that low north every run since last nights run.

My concern is, how much further north will she come

F606C4E0-3FD9-4243-B8BB-3B6C408F4777.png

Me and you both buddy.  The good thing is we are under 5 days for this system.  Definitely a strong signal on multiple models.  Thanks for sharing @John1122

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2 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Me and you both buddy.  The good thing is we are under 5 days for this system.  Definitely a strong signal on multiple models.  Thanks for sharing @John1122

When in doubt, let the purple finger point the way for snow..............  once you see it you can't unsee it.

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6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

When in doubt, let the purple finger point the way for snow..............  once you see it you can't unsee it.

 

6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

When in doubt, let the purple finger point the way for snow..............  once you see it you can't unsee it.

As long as that finger stays over my county I’m happy.  Lol.  That is pretty funny now that u mention it too.  Haha

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Nice track for the system next Monday on the para.  Shows a nice stripe of snow from east Texas and ENE into SE Tennessee.  Doesn't get a lot of moisture back into Tennessee northwest of there, but the threat is there and on most modeling not named the regular GFS.  

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The Canadian at 12z starts its accumulating snow in much the same place as the para 12z GFS, but hits the western and middle part of the state more.  Snow isn't heavy once you leave east Texas and western Louisiana, but a general 2-4 up through Memphis, Jackson,  and 1-2" in northern middle Tennessee.

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6 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

The Canadian at 12z starts its accumulating snow in much the same place as the para 12z GFS, but hits the western and middle part of the state more.  Snow isn't heavy once you leave east Texas and western Louisiana, but a general 2-4 up through Memphis, Jackson,  and 1-2" in northern middle Tennessee.

The Canadian has been pretty consistent with that storm signal the past few runs.  I’ll be interested to see what the 12z Euro does with that energy today

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.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Another round of rain and snow is expected Sunday night, Monday
into Monday night with the highest chance of precipitation over
North Mississippi. Any snow Sunday night will likely change over
to rain Monday, then back to snow Monday night. No accumulation is
expected. Elevated roadways could become slick late Monday night
into early Tuesday.

 

 

 

NWS Memphis is mentioning the Sunday through Tuesday threat in their hazardous weather outlook.  

 

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25 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Another round of rain and snow is expected Sunday night, Monday
into Monday night with the highest chance of precipitation over
North Mississippi. Any snow Sunday night will likely change over
to rain Monday, then back to snow Monday night. No accumulation is
expected. Elevated roadways could become slick late Monday night
into early Tuesday.

 

 

 

NWS Memphis is mentioning the Sunday through Tuesday threat in their hazardous weather outlook.  

 

They been burnt to many times, so they will approach this with caution, can’t blame them, at one time the mid south had no problem with these but as of late these things can change at last minute.

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The euro took the second wave further to the south this time. I am kind of glad it took the jog south instead of going nw even more. These things often tend to take a nw turn leading up to the event. I think we still have a shot with this second wave in west and middle tn, still plenty of time for a shift or a trend in any direction. But still being out 4-5 days I would still rather have it to the south of me versus north overall.

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19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Total 18z GFS snowfall for the sub forum are is probably worth a post if someone has it.  

 

B8217A71-8E90-49A8-B0DE-DFB2E6FFF085.png

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I'm also posting the GEFS mean. It has been awhile since I have seen Knoxville in the purple/pink for the mean.

 

image.png.19415dc4c57c26436e8713526a3aea86.png

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50 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

This event now in the 18z Euro's timeframe:

giphy.gif

Man I really like that look!!  Euro has been consistent with this look the past 3 runs if I’m not mistaken.  84 hr nam with nearly the identical storm track as depicted here.  

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