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josh_4184

2020-2021 LES Thread

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12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

One of The Weather Channel guys wasn't Detroit for the February 9, 2018 snowstorm. Friend of mine who works downtown saw him while they were doing one of their segments. I honestly don't even know what channel The Weather Channel is on my cable network lol.

It was either Bettes or Seidel. I was in downtown having fun in the snow and talked to him. Most recent time someone from TWC was in Michigan was when the dams collapsed in Edenville and Sanford

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16 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

GFS still pretty bullish for my area, painting 40-50" somewhere near me and upwards of 70" in the UP.  :mapsnow: Ready to put my new snow plow to work. 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

will Gaylord proper be too far east? supposed to head north in a few weeks. What would you recommend is the best spot based on the upcoming setup?

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13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

will Gaylord proper be too far east? supposed to head north in a few weeks. What would you recommend is the best spot based on the upcoming setup?

Chicago or New York!  Lol....

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34 minutes ago, MIstorm97 said:

It was either Bettes or Seidel. I was in downtown having fun in the snow and talked to him. Most recent time someone from TWC was in Michigan was when the dams collapsed in Edenville and Sanford

Good catch MIstorm, totally forgot about that last year. That was pretty localized but definitely a major problem. 

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34 minutes ago, slow poke said:

Chicago or New York!  Lol....

New York would be fun during a storm but afterward your talking about a bunch of dirty snow & immediate melting. Brother lives in Chicago, theyve been kind of due, esp on the lakeshore, so I can't hate. Jokes aside the entire state of Michigan should be a frozen Winter wonderland but I really think some of the Lake effect could be epic in spots.

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5 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

will Gaylord proper be too far east? supposed to head north in a few weeks. What would you recommend is the best spot based on the upcoming setup?

Northern lower or UP?

Gaylord will do well, the clown maps never model the heaviest snow for my area, it seems to always slam Mancelona, Bellaire, and EJ, however my area towards Elmira, down to just north of Kalkaska always have the most snog otg. With that being said the initial LES setup with be more west based or wsw which will favor Petoskey/Emmet county and towards Boyne area. If?? When the 850 flow changes more to a WNW or NW flow that's where my area cashes in. Granted we will still see 8-10" into early weekend, then antipirate another 3-4" each day maybe more depending on banding/flow not moving to much.

Safe bet that most NWL Michigan will have a good snowpack in the next 2 weeks, exactly where the deepest hardest hit will as always depend on who gets under the heaviest banding which is always a guessing game.

In UP I would say near Grand Marais toward Paradise or Keweenaw will get hit good.

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1 hour ago, josh_4184 said:

Northern lower or UP?

Gaylord will do well, the clown maps never model the heaviest snow for my area, it seems to always slam Mancelona, Bellaire, and EJ, however my area towards Elmira, down to just north of Kalkaska always have the most snog otg. With that being said the initial LES setup with be more west based or wsw which will favor Petoskey/Emmet county and towards Boyne area. If?? When the 850 flow changes more to a WNW or NW flow that's where my area cashes in. Granted we will still see 8-10" into early weekend, then antipirate another 3-4" each day maybe more depending on banding/flow not moving to much.

Safe bet that most NWL Michigan will have a good snowpack in the next 2 weeks, exactly where the deepest hardest hit will as always depend on who gets under the heaviest banding which is always a guessing game.

In UP I would say near Grand Marais toward Paradise or Keweenaw will get hit good.

Thanks! I was thinking northern lower since it's closer. 

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Man the past couple days with all that sun really took a toll on the deep snow pack that we had up here at our place. There’s probably only 6-8” here, hopefully we get that 4-6” tonight to freshen it up some.

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No clue how much snow we have. Had around a foot when I went to bed last night at 9...looks like there was at least an additional 10 inches by 4am which is around when these pics were taken. I had shoveled the entire driveway and moved the cars...so that's all just since 9pm last night. It's currently switched to lake effect snow. Coming down heavily.

 

NlmVGEl.jpg

WTIyi9B.jpg

gvjjfoz.jpg

LpoYPnA.jpg

 

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Kinda hard to see on the composite, but the TMKE terminal Doppler reveals that industry in WI is contributing to the heavier lake effect bands affecting areas near and NW of GRR this morning. 
 

A2D68B5B-E3E5-48F7-8A27-7BCEF6A76179.jpeg

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22 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Kinda hard to see on the composite, but the TMKE terminal Doppler reveals that industry in WI is contributing to the heavier lake effect bands affecting areas near and NW of GRR this morning. 

Never heard of that.  Interesting to see the connection.

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5 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

Kinda hard to see on the composite, but the TMKE terminal Doppler reveals that industry in WI is contributing to the heavier lake effect bands affecting areas near and NW of GRR this morning. 
 

A2D68B5B-E3E5-48F7-8A27-7BCEF6A76179.jpeg

I was wondering why I've been stuck between bands most of the day.  It's like there's been a hole over the SE side of Grand Rapids.  Some could be due to being close to the radar source, but I can confirm the GRR hole is at least partially real as accumulations have been pretty nonexistent so far IMBY.  It's finally starting to fill in now.  Still nothing too heavy so far.

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7 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

No clue how much snow we have. Had around a foot when I went to bed last night at 9...looks like there was at least an additional 10 inches by 4am which is around when these pics were taken. I had shoveled the entire driveway and moved the cars...so that's all just since 9pm last night. It's currently switched to lake effect snow. Coming down heavily.

 

NlmVGEl.jpg

WTIyi9B.jpg

gvjjfoz.jpg

LpoYPnA.jpg

 

Your spot is going to have some insane totals by end of next week. The PV literally goes right over your head.

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Your spot is going to have some insane totals by end of next week. The PV literally goes right over your head.

Yeah, it's really exciting.

Still jealous of the long duration events you guys get down there. We tend to get consistent relatively heavy snow fairly often for a long duration...but rarely the sort of 4-6inch/hour rates you guys get off Erie and Ontario for days on end. Those are just another thing altogether and absurdly epic.

 

I'll be taking pics all this week up here.

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7 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Never heard of that.  Interesting to see the connection.

Not sure I've ever seen it, but it's similar to when we have a connection to another Great Lake (Superior-to-Michigan, Huron-to-Erie/Ontario, etc). In this case, the heat, moisture and ice nuclei from smokestacks is pre-conditioning the atmosphere, so the band ends up being stronger.

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Dad has 9” of system+LES so far today. Continues to steadily snow. Plus “Two foot drifts walking down to the river by neighbors driveway” 

Actually his plow guy decided now was a cool time to take a vacation in Florida (???) so he’s scrambling to find another plow company. The driveway isn’t paved (yet) so can’t just run a snow blower down it. 

 

4D84560B-8F88-42FC-A6FB-193FB6ED67B1.jpeg

083E5E6E-683F-4D3F-BFC4-7FFE14465886.jpeg

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Really dumping here at times.  It snowed about an inch in 20 minutes when I was in the store.  It isn't persistently that heavy, but really difficult driving in the most intense bursts.  It cranks for 20 minutes, then lets off for a bit, then cranks again.  At least 3 inches of fluff in the past 3 hours though.  That's on top of the 6 inches from last night.  Up to about 9 total.

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Petoskey and Harbor Springs area were near white out today while I was there, easily had the most fresh snow I saw from my drive from Higgins to there and back today. Drove through some really intense bands. Gaylord area and south was much better for the drive back with much lighter snow falling. Definitely looking like winter should in the Mitt.

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6 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

Yeah, it's really exciting.

Still jealous of the long duration events you guys get down there. We tend to get consistent relatively heavy snow fairly often for a long duration...but rarely the sort of 4-6inch/hour rates you guys get off Erie and Ontario for days on end. Those are just another thing altogether and absurdly epic.

 

I'll be taking pics all this week up here.

We don't have much longer before the lake freezes so this is our last hurrah. Take lots of videos and pictures! Will be following. Disappointing event so far here.

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Picked up about 7" of synoptic Thursday night, only light LES throughout the day, strongest banding was towards my NW as I anticipated with the WSW/W flow earlier targeting Petoskey area towards Boyne down to Ellsworth. Now flow has switch to more of a WNW flow and been getting hit heavy the past hour or so, depending on how long it takes for the dry air to move in will depend on how much can pick up. If it it holds off until morning can see 6-8" more for my area.. 

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17 hours ago, purduewx80 said:

Not sure I've ever seen it, but it's similar to when we have a connection to another Great Lake (Superior-to-Michigan, Huron-to-Erie/Ontario, etc). In this case, the heat, moisture and ice nuclei from smokestacks is pre-conditioning the atmosphere, so the band ends up being stronger.

It's similar to summer with research dealing with the fickle t storms of LaPorte In from particulates from northwestern In industry.

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1 hour ago, josh_4184 said:

Ended with about 3-4 overnight nothing special. Whole event for a couple days was about 10" areas NW of me did better with more LES. Looks like downstate LES belts did pretty well too.

147036049_3868261149909603_3423445705489

It's nice to see the entire state a frozen winter wonderland now.

 

Will be in Gaylord Feb 24-26. Have you been to Aspen Park? I want to check that out.

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's nice to see the entire state a frozen winter wonderland now.

 

Will be in Gaylord Feb 24-26. Have you been to Aspen Park? I want to check that out.

Yes Nice Park, the trails are good although never been in the winter. Seeing the large Elk is pretty awesome.

Not sure how deep the snow will be however I have about 15-17" OTG currently. Probably less over on that side of Gaylord area.

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7 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Yes Nice Park, the trails are good although never been in the winter. Seeing the large Elk is pretty awesome.

Not sure how deep the snow will be however I have about 15-17" OTG currently. Probably less over on that side of Gaylord area.

Thank you! I heard the elk are amazing. I will be exploring other things too, just wanted opinion of that park.

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23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thank you! I heard the elk are amazing. I will be exploring other things too, just wanted opinion of that park.

A lot of nice restaurants opened recently downtown now as well in Gaylord, not that you can actually dine again if you are into that as well. A couple nice micro breweries /etc.

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