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Major LES event-December 24-27


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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Drops around 18-22" at my place we take. I think all those totals get moved north a bit as lake temps are super warm for this time of year. I'd be surprised if Erie PA is jackpot at 3 feet in this setup 

I agree. This is still looking good for metro and north towns too. I’d be happy with a foot between both.

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44 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Absolute crush job on the ukmet at 10-1 lol It probably went a little over board but I like the flow which is what I'm looking at..Starts Friday evening ends during the day Sunday.. Ukmet shows LES better than you would expect for a lower resolution model..

sn10_acc.us_ne - 2020-12-23T122103.478.png

Wolfie liked that one, max right over pulaski. :snowing:

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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Cautiously optimistic lol I have been burned way to many times in the SR..Still have a couple days before the meso-models get into range..

The lake effect looks worse and worse last few runs, It looked pretty big a few days ago, still cautiously optimistic with that amount of cold air with those lake temps. We need to get all the short range models within timeframe. Tomorrow we should have a better idea. 

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8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The lake effect looks worse and worse last few runs, It looked pretty big a few days ago, still cautiously optimistic with that amount of cold air with those lake temps. We need to get all the short range models within timeframe. Tomorrow we should have a better idea. 

Yeah I’m not sweating the euro for LES it’s horrible with it...12z synoptically shows 6-8” for WNY

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Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

Yeah I’m not sweating the euro for LES it’s horrible with it...12z synoptically shows 6-8” for WNY

Eh.. It's not great at depicting band strength. But the model literally has westerly flow at 850mb over the lake after the low departs Friday morning through Saturday. I wouldn't say that's exactly exciting if you like lake effect in BUF. 

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Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Eh.. It's not great at depicting band strength. But the model literally has westerly flow at 850mb over the lake after the low departs Friday morning through Saturday. I wouldn't say that's exactly exciting if you like lake effect in BUF. 

The question is it on its own in that depiction? Seems like the other models (NAM, GFS, RGEM) disagree with it. Thoughts?

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Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

The question is it on its own in that depiction? Seems like the other models (NAM, GFS, RGEM) disagree with it. Thoughts?

I never seriously use NAM/RDPS out near 60-72 h. Mesomodels do screwy things with overall synoptic pattern as you go further out. It's just something to give pause. I'm not sure if it's right, but the ecmwf pattern is not good for lake effect for BUF and it's definitely a model I'd want in my camp if I wanted a significant event to unfold. The whole system is very convoluted. It's not a slam dunk. The upper level low is diving down in the OV/TN valley while a surface low is over Quebec. That evolution i think is causing some of the uncertainties. If you had a stacked low over Huron/south of James Bay we wouldn't be in a holding pattern right now. 

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

I wish they would show the whole event lol They don't wanna include Sat yet.. Looks like they are low-balling the synoptic portion but who knows, they are the pros not me..

Yeah that seems very low considering what the models are spitting out. I do wonder if this storm is faster than forecast? 

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.LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Lake snows will develop
  over southwest NY during the day and move north and intensify
  during the afternoon. Snow will be heaviest during the evening
  before lake bands move back toward the south on Saturday. Total
  snow accumulations of 7 to 17 inches in the most persistent lake
  snows. Lower accumulations of 3-7 inches are expected over
  eastern portions of Genesee and Wyoming counties. Winds gusting
  as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Erie, Genesee, and Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.
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WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. This will initially be widespread
  wet snow Thursday night, followed more localized lake effect
  snow Friday into Saturday. There may be a break in the snowfall
  Friday before the lake effect snow kicks in. Total snow
  accumulations of 11 to 22 inches. Lower accumulations of 3-7
  inches are expected over the southwest half of Cattaraugus
  County. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Cattaraugus and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Thursday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commute.
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