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Dandridge Dollop 12/24/20 Storm Thread (Winter Wonderland)

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Figured we’d go ahead and start a thread for this possible storm so we could have a separate thread to look back on it In the future.  Middle and East Tennessee look to have the best chances with this system, (hope west Tn can creep into this scenario as well).  Either way it’s nice to have something to track around Christmas time as this doesn’t happen very often.  Fingers crossed we all can have a white Christmas!  Let the speculation begin.

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It's been 84 years. Oh sorry that's the Titanic. It's been 10 years.

Upper Plateau, Mountains, likely Tri Cities down to Morristown look to change over to snow Christmas Eve. There's some energy progged behind the front. Behind is the key word for KCHA, zip! I don't know about Nashville or Knoxville; but, the latter probably has better odds than the former. Both are in the game though.

For those in the game a 10-year return ain't bad. Was is over 40 from 1969 to 2010? But for Chattanooga we are 10 of 84 years until the next White Christmas, lol!

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14 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

It's been 84 years. Oh sorry that's the Titanic. It's been 10 years.

Upper Plateau, Mountains, likely Tri Cities down to Morristown look to change over to snow Christmas Eve. There's some energy progged behind the front. Behind is the key word for KCHA, zip! I don't know about Nashville or Knoxville; but, the latter probably has better odds than the former. Both are in the game though.

For those in the game a 10-year return ain't bad. Was is over 40 from 1969 to 2010? But for Chattanooga we are 10 of 84 years until the next White Christmas, lol!

I didn’t even realize you guys had one ten years ago!!

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Some relevant thoughts from the WPC's afternoon disco:

"The presence of convection may favor a faster eastward progression of the cold front within the model spread...Besides the lake effect snow being likely in the cold cyclonic flow on the cold side of the system, sufficiently strong frontal wave development along a favorable path could also produce a band of meaningful cold sector snowfall from the central Appalachians to the interior Northeast following frontal passage. The scale of one or more such waves is small enough to keep confidence low for a while."

 

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It's been 84 years. Oh sorry that's the Titanic. It's been 10 years.
Upper Plateau, Mountains, likely Tri Cities down to Morristown look to change over to snow Christmas Eve. There's some energy progged behind the front. Behind is the key word for KCHA, zip! I don't know about Nashville or Knoxville; but, the latter probably has better odds than the former. Both are in the game though.
For those in the game a 10-year return ain't bad. Was is over 40 from 1969 to 2010? But for Chattanooga we are 10 of 84 years until the next White Christmas, lol!

giphy.gif


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Not sure who to believe, the consistent GFS or the waffling foreign models. One thing is for sure, it's never easy any more. 

Will be interesting to see how the NAM starts with this system. It’s sometimes is the first one to make an adjustment and then the globals will sometimes follow. The high res and convective mods should help pick up on isolated heavy micro climate bursts. Really surprised how much the Euro has waffled but we are about to be inside 5 days when it sometimes figures it out. If it wasn’t for the Euro I’d feel pretty good right now being north of 40 and east of 75.


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Weird bump on the old version of the18z GEFS mean around Dandridge:

giphy.gif

You have to zoom into see it. 

 

IPi7V5v.png

 

New version of the 18z GEFS was more stingy, but did improve for a similar area over 12z. Toggled  the two runs in a gif below.  (More light blue = newer run)

giphy.gif

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Pretty epic first page for a storm thread.  LOL.  

The setup would be a good one if it’s perfect but there’s a lot more bust potential. When it’s all about timing I never like our chances in the valley.


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Just now, PowellVolz said:

The setup would be a good one if it’s perfect but there’s a lot more bust potential. When it’s all about timing I never like our chances in the valley..

I keep waiting for all the models to almost simultaneously turn away from the event leaving a few of us with flurries. That said looking through the ensemble members I am pleased by what I see at least for 12z and 18z.

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3 hours ago, PowellVolz said:


The setup would be a good one if it’s perfect but there’s a lot more bust potential. When it’s all about timing I never like our chances in the valley.


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Was talking about the Dandridge dollop and the Chattanooga 84 year Christmas snow drought comments.  And yeah, as I have said for days...low confidence.

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I really don't like seeing the global models(admittedly at range) not on board at all - in some cases not even a flake.  However, the GEFS ensemble held steady if not upped its amounts just a bit.  Need to see those short range models make a move at some point(other than just a frontal passage).

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4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

GFS ratio'd, still consistent. 

It goes without saying but I'll say it; even just flakes falling at Christmas would be amazing.  But cut those map totals in half and it would be epic here.  I'd like to see the Doc fully on board before getting my hopes up though.

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Just now, Stovepipe said:

It goes without saying but I'll say it; even just flakes falling at Christmas would be amazing.  But cut those map totals in half and it would be epic here.  I'd like to see the Doc fully on board before getting my hopes up though.

The Doc has been all in, or kinda in, depending on which run, for a week now. Actually most of it's moves have been towards the GFS when it does move.  

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