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pasnownut

December 16 2020 CTP Snowstorm Disco and Obs

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4 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

Up to 10" now

That's a nice band your set up in right now, it does seem these deform bands are setting even more NW than some of the more NW guidance had them. 

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11 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

WeatherBell doesn't include sleet in it's snow map like TT does. There's a separate accumulation map for sleet (using a 3:1) map. 

hrrr-conus-pennsylvania-sleet_total-8202800.thumb.png.13681f1f2ebdb25d65c536c5c5a68b76.png

Which brings the question, does anyone have any noteworthy sleet accumulations to report? Typically I'll measure and clear when a transition occurs and measure the sleet separately. 

Thanks bud. Wasn’t sure. I’d take .8” sleet with a couple inches on top.
You think you’ll get to 18”?  From mesos I think you’ll be right close. 

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11 minutes ago, paweather said:

Pingers have stopped back to almost all snow here. I am ready. :-) 

Snow mixing in again here as well. Not much but it is mixing in again. Seeing Md wins have shifted well south gives me hope that backend is legit.  

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Incredible if this comes true...like Blizz just said with the 23z HRRR giving MDT 7" of snow between now and the morning...the 0Z also has the exact same expectations.  It is painting an additional 10" of snow over me by 12Z tomorrow morning.  That would be absolutely astounding.  Here's hoping...

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

How is the surface low track looking in real time?
How soon could the LSV go back to snow as the coastal low further develops & heads northeast?

Mesoanalysis has the low roughly on the southern tip of the Delmarva currently. So track doesn't look to end up as far NW as some models had it but the models like the Euro and especially NAM got the stronger warm nose aloft correct. I was def thinking mix in southern York/Lancaster but didn't think it'd get as far north as it did. That tremendous 850mb fetch likely had a big hand in that. 

I'd say things will probably get changed over once heavier precip starts shifting back into the Sus Valley (and also comes up from the SW by looks of the LWX radar). Likely within the next couple hours. 

 

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About the big accident:. I see at Weather.com that there's a headline about it and some other accidents.  

"Pennsylvania State Police spokesman Cpl. Brent Miller said the incident happened around 3:05 p.m. on Interstate 80 westbound near mile marker 183 in Clinton County.

“It involved 30 to 60 vehicles with multiple injuries and right now there are two fatalities," Miller told weather.com in a phone interview at around 7:30 p.m. EST.

Rescuers were still on the scene and Miller said the number of casualties could rise."

https://weather.com/news/news/2020-12-16-winter-storm-gail-snow-ice-schools-roads-new-york-pennsylvania-massachusetts?cm_ven=hp-slot-2

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Amen, never ever ever wish for zr. It’s only disastrous, nothing more. Sleet at least kinda looks like snow. 

Yes! It also melts niiiiiice and sllloooowly!

22 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

Up to 10" now

Nice! I lived in DuBois for several years and still go back several times a year to visit family and friends. It has been quite some time since Clearfield/Jefferson counties have been hit really well. 

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Just now, paweather said:

Yes it should be legit. 

Radar building nicely to our sw. that was worry #2. It looks like she is also flipping back as well. 
nan it is sleeting unbelievably hard right now. 

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1 minute ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

Before the weenie suicides start, keep in mind this is a mid-december storm -- certainly atypical. At least over the past few decades when big storms tended to happen Mid-Jan to early March

No suicide weenie here. This is and will be better than last year already. We aren't the MA forum so no worries. We just have the good passion. 

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1 minute ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

(I played a voice of reason around here years ago, old habits die hard)

I played the voice of reason once and it got me the banhammer from the Accuweather forums. 

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

No suicide weenie here. This is and will be better than last year already. We aren't the MA forum so no worries. We just have the good passion. 

Yeah I didn’t see and ledge jumpers gettin ready here. 
We’re a bit better than that. 

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I see Wunderground is saying only another 5-8" for Williamsport.  We were supposed to get a lot more than that.  What happened to the rest of our snow?

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3 minutes ago, CoralRed said:

I see Wunderground is saying only another 5-8" for Williamsport.  We were supposed to get a lot more than that.  What happened to the rest of our snow?

Wouldn't worry about it. That yellow band west of you pivoting through can dump that in a few hours. 

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2 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

**** Joel Myers

I turned down a job to work for that guy. I'm not kidding, in the interview, they asked me what I knew about him. You want to talk about a ****ing messiah complex? Go check out Accuweather in State College. 

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