paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, cfbaggett said: Thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, cfbaggett said: Yeah, this is what I mentioned in an early post. What exactly does having such a large number of members west of the OP mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, cfbaggett said: I hope the 4 WAAYYY east outliers can offset the 14 western outliers. Ughh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I hope the 4 WAAYYY east outliers can offset the 14 western outliers. Ughh. The green marks the spot and has been consistent on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 We are going to get Nam'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 The green is a mean, median longitude is a tad west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, paweather said: The green marks the spot and has been consistent on the models. There are more left leaning members than before. However, isn't this the time we start giving more weight to the OP run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, cfbaggett said: The green is a mean, median longitude is a tad west. Yep but pretty consistent with the model runs over the last several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, paweather said: The green marks the spot and has been consistent on the models. Green is the mean but that can and will move as the outliers directly aftect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 And there may be timing differences amongst the members, so some that are east, could have been further west an hour or two earlier. Anyway, it all looks really exciting, regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: There are more left leaning members than before. However, isn't this the time we start giving more weight to the OP run? That’s a great point. We are now entering the time where op and mesos start gaining weight as they are higher resolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: SOmeone posted the Euro ensemble members in the Mid Atlantic forum, and there are a ton of members that are tracking well inland....as in over DC and baltimore. Any thoughts on what that means? There are a few very far east members but the majority of members are west of the OP. Ok, not over DC and Baltimore but straight up the bay which would seem significant. Not our region, most of our concerns are not the same as theirs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, cfbaggett said: And there may be timing differences amongst the members, so some that are east, could have been further west an hour or two earlier. Anyway, it all looks really exciting, regardless. Thanks again for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Wednesday 4pm: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: There are more left leaning members than before. However, isn't this the time we start giving more weight to the OP run? Yes! This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Not our region, most of our concerns are not the same as theirs! Oh I know...my concern is being fringed, so a low that is 50 miles west for me could make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 More uniform western expanse of qpf early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: More uniform western expanse of qpf early on. Primary not dying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Nam'd we knew it would happen, not saying this is the solution. But it is at least nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 @48 LP slightly sse of 18 z. Ip/zr as well. Oh so close to a kaboom for me. Happy so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 CCB: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 That CCB is epic...even out here we are on the back end of it but still benefit in a pretty big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Don’t know what snow maps will look like but I’m down with what the 0z NAM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 40" it is 2020 so you never know. LOL. Just kidding, let's get this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, KPITSnow said: That CCB is epic...even out here we are on the back end of it but still benefit in a pretty big way. What does CCB mean. I see the QPF. Is that the rate per hour it’s falling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Ahoff said: What does CCB mean. I see the QPF. Is that the rate per hour it’s falling? Cold conveyor belt. I'll let someone better at it explain it though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, paweather said: 40" it is 2020 so you never know. LOL. Just kidding, let's get this. How about 30 “ ?!?!?! The 3k NAM is out of this world!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: How about 30 “ ?!?!?! The 3k NAM is out of this world!!! Yep I figured. When I saw the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: How about 30 “ ?!?!?! The 3k NAM is out of this world!!! TT is BROKE. y’all r killin me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, paweather said: Yep I figured. When I saw the setup. 50” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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