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Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️


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7 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Yes, but it’s again not impossible clearly.  I just feel the incredible averageness of this year is more notable than anything.

It very much is. In any event, KPIT is sitting at 3 at this moment, which ends the streak of not dropping below 5.

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36 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

NWS is not too enthusiastic about tonight's snow.

I think if everything goes right our ceiling is probably about 1.5” or so. But of course it doesn’t always go right. I think we could pick up an inch as our last addition to the snowpack before the first short-lived taste of spring arrives midweek. I like the GFS’s thinking on the pattern after that, but that may be the cold bias again.

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3 hours ago, TimB84 said:

I think if everything goes right our ceiling is probably about 1.5” or so. But of course it doesn’t always go right. I think we could pick up an inch as our last addition to the snowpack before the first short-lived taste of spring arrives midweek. I like the GFS’s thinking on the pattern after that, but that may be the cold bias again.

Looking at the 3k NAM the city gets about .1 -.15 qpf, so yeah if you can manage 10:1 ratios I think that's a reasonable ceiling. Further NE of the city you get the more qpf and should be less warm air so those areas should do slightly better.

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3 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Officially dropped to 2 this morning.

That I can live with. We have almost certainly secured our first month with below normal temperature since last May, we got weeks and weeks of snow cover, and we finally recorded a temperature colder than last winter’s minimum. If this is it for winter (I hope we still get another storm, but it’s going to be a tall order with a warm pattern being signaled), we’ve had a very good one. Now if only we can get a spring that fades slowly into summer so the wife doesn’t have to hear me beg to turn on the central air in May, I’ll be even happier.

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24 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

That I can live with. We have almost certainly secured our first month with below normal temperature since last May, we got weeks and weeks of snow cover, and we finally recorded a temperature colder than last winter’s minimum. If this is it for winter (I hope we still get another storm, but it’s going to be a tall order with a warm pattern being signaled), we’ve had a very good one. Now if only we can get a spring that fades slowly into summer so the wife doesn’t have to hear me beg to turn on the central air in May, I’ll be even happier.

Come May I’m ready for heat.

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6 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Come May I’m ready for heat.

The May/early June heat isn’t too bad since it doesn’t always come with humidity. I’ve never understood the draw to any temperature above 80 unless the dew point is below 60, and we know our summer dew points are in the comfortable 50s for probably about 3 days from mid June to end of August.

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1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

The May/early June heat isn’t too bad since it doesn’t always come with humidity. I’ve never understood the draw to any temperature above 80 unless the dew point is below 60, and we know our summer dew points are in the comfortable 50s for probably about 3 days from mid June to end of August.

Early summer last year was pretty low dew point.  About half way through the early July heat wave is when the dew points rose.

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Early summer last year was pretty low dew point.  About half way through the early July heat wave is when the dew points rose.

Despite being hell on earth temperature-wise, it was nice to be a little drier last summer. And yet, we only had a little over 4 months between our first and last 80 degree days. Still, I was ready to pack up and move to Alaska if we didn’t get a real winter this year.

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I'm curious to see how the rest of winter plays out. I never bet against a strong upper level low that dumps on us come March and April. You can already tell how the sun angle is affecting things. Even yesterday when it was 20 degrees the snow was still melting with the sun. 

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Euro completely schooled the GFS and other models on the magnitude of the warmth we had just 48 hours ago.

Euro consistently for the past several runs shows this pattern, which is vastly different from the GFS but the GFS-Para and Canadian have now picked up as well:93C29312-8969-48EF-A8BF-C4E7E961CB53.jpeg.d0fde0cd020548410ff1097cc5a39ba5.jpeg

NWS puts all their eggs in the GFS basket (TWC seems to as well, based on their temperature forecast):

EC969851-AD80-45C8-901A-3A9F770BE670.jpeg.8f84e57b114527ffde08ca41572d2475.jpeg
 

Not sure what all this means, but it would seem winter isn’t over and a well-timed/placed storm could give us some snow. It’s no secret that I trust the Euro over the GFS 80-90% of the time, and I double down on that trust in the Euro when it has the hot hand due to recent success.

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RIP Bob Kudzma

Fun fact is that he drove a bus for 18 years after he retired on the air. Just something he said was his dream as a kid. Seems like he was a good guy.

Growing up he was like the NAM with the juiced up totals, and Denardo as like the Euro (except this yr) telling us not so fast. He used to say that he forcasted to prepare people. 

Throw Bowman in there and it was quite a nice local met dynamic. Definitely appointment TV to get their forcasts after tracking a storm on TWC 5 day business planner. 

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1 hour ago, Burghblizz said:

RIP Bob Kudzma

Fun fact is that he drove a bus for 18 years after he retired on the air. Just something he said was his dream as a kid. Seems like he was a good guy.

Growing up he was like the NAM with the juiced up totals, and Denardo as like the Euro (except this yr) telling us not so fast. He used to say that he forcasted to prepare people. 

Throw Bowman in there and it was quite a nice local met dynamic. Definitely appointment TV to get their forcasts after tracking a storm on TWC 5 day business planner. 

I hadn’t heard, but seconded. RIP. Kudzma, Bowman and Denardo was unquestionably the golden age of Pittsburgh broadcast meteorology. Obviously with the advent of the internet and such we have so many other means of getting a weather forecast, so such a golden age will sadly never return.

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On 2/22/2021 at 2:27 PM, blackngoldrules said:
On 2/22/2021 at 1:26 PM, Ahoff said:
Yeah, only 5" less than Erie, and 11" more than Cleveland!  Amazing!

Not as much LES this season. More storms rolling through and less northwesterly winds than usual off the lakes.

The less NW winds KILLED our winter here in the Syracuse area. Not much LES and the storm track was over PA much of the winter. Really boring compared to normal in these parts.

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It looks like that’s a wrap. The post-Valentine’s day portion of winter featured not one but two snowstorm busts, a massive warm-up that eliminated a large snowpack in two days, a torrential rainstorm with a brief period of almost summer like humidity, an upcoming seasonably but not anomalously cold stretch without precip, a likely warm spell to follow, and yet another March with likely little to no snow. We’re back to normal!

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15 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

^Chill.  It was a good ride, and they don't last for months on end.  We got three solid months of winter that actually spanned the winter months.  I'm grateful.

In retrospect, I guess I was hoping for a winter that I’d remember for years to come (like ‘93-‘94), not a winter that I’d forget about in three years (like ‘17-‘18). Those two and this year were all above average snowfall seasons, but one of them will be memorable and two of them won’t.

There’s a nonzero chance March will be memorable, but in a 2012 way rather than a 1993 way.

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