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north pgh

Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️

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1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

NAM showing no snow Thursday essentially...all ice. I know it’s easy to dismiss but the NAM was dead on for this storm. 

The NAM was not dead on that far out.  It was a great looking storm until around 48 hrs.

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51 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

At this point, since there isn’t much hope of snow, just give me the 3/4” of ice the NAM is depicting. Won’t need to worry about hypothermia if the power goes out since it’ll be 32-37 degrees outside by morning.

You're just super pleasant to read posts from, lol.

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2 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Yeah they can't have a knee jerk reaction with every model run. Just yesterday my neighbor tells me we are getting 10-12. I wasn't gonna argue but I said I wouldn't be surprised if we got a lot less. The general public is clueless when it comes to the intricacies of forecasting. 

I heard multiple thinking we were getting 10" on Friday night lol 

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22 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

I still think said “thump” will be freezing rain at best and not snow.

Here’s a fun question: if the late week storm misses us, is it more likely to go too far SE and give us nothing, or NW and give us rain?

So the trend with today’s storm was a continual tick NW around 72 hours, this ones been going SE, so just based on putting money on the current trend that’s what I’d say. No real scientific evidence though.

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6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

So the trend with today’s storm was a continual tick NW around 72 hours, this ones been going SE, so just based on putting money on the current trend that’s what I’d say. No real scientific evidence though.

While the GFS is favorable to us, it’s even more favorable to DC.

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1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I hope you are right on this, I can see a scenario with heavy plain rain that would really decimate the snowpack. Not saying I expect this, but I think it’s a possible outcome if things break in the wrong direction.

Ehh rain and 35 won’t make too huge of a dent in the snow pack. 

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3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Umm...how?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_13.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15.png

Maybe I’m thinking of the para. Puts big snowfall rates through that area Thursday morning and nearly a foot total.

Realistically, betting on rain for DC with that system or any system is even better than betting on rain for our area.

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18 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Watch this one miss to the SE..:lol:...:unsure:

 

LOL unfortunately that appears to be on the table. Looking at most of the model total snow maps there is a theme 1 with max running to our west (from today's storm) and another running south east of us from Thursday's storm. I would bet against a complete whiff on Thursday but we probably won't have much clarity until today's storm is out of the way. 

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Just cleaned the car. Show underneath very light and fluffy but on top it was heavy and wet. Guessing we were fairly close to a flip. 

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Normally I would be excited about Thursday because it is only 48 hours out but we all know what happened 48 hours before this storm. I say it’s 50/50 storm goes west or east. Let the sweating out of the models begin before this first storm is even over. Maybe we can get some sleet tonight. As bad as we all hate the pinging on the windows I would take that tonight over rain or freezing rain. 

Hell ....this all beats a cold dry spell waiting for something on the models. Keep bringing these systems on and we’ll take our chances.:popcorn:

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4 minutes ago, Mailman said:

Euro is good for late week.  :)

 A small NW trend would be perfect, but we have to be careful what we wish for and 5” is plenty.

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Just now, TimB84 said:

 A small NW trend would be perfect, but we have to be careful what we wish for and 5” is plenty.

No, I don't think we should ask, lol.

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11 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

No, I don't think we should ask, lol.

You’re right. If DC wins that one but we still do fairly well, so be it, they’re due.

And besides, the NAM still needs to come SE with that one.

Of course, the NWS has bought in and introduced that tantalizing “snow may be heavy at times in the morning” to their forecast for Allegheny County for Thursday...

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25 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

You’re right. If DC wins that one but we still do fairly well, so be it, they’re due.

And besides, the NAM still needs to come SE with that one.

Of course, the NWS has bought in and introduced that tantalizing “snow may be heavy at times in the morning” to their forecast for Allegheny County for Thursday...

On Twitter they also said it looks like a mixed event in a reply.  They're all over the place.

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Just now, Ahoff said:

On Twitter they also said it looks like a mixed event in a reply.  They're all over the place.

They also have no plain rain in the forecast tonight, at least for here. I see they also told someone on Twitter there won’t be plain rain tonight.

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17 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

They also have no plain rain in the forecast tonight, at least for here. I see they also told someone on Twitter there won’t be plain rain tonight.

No mention of rain in their afternoon discussion either. Seems strange when you think about climo and all of the Hi-res modeling showing the transition to all rain. Maybe they are thinking some CAD will keep it all mixed precip? I dont know. Thoughts?

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 
  No further changes were needed for the aftn update as the first 
  snow-supporting shortwave has exited with the second poised to 
  reinitiate snow, sleet, and freezing rain through tonight. 
   
  Previous... 
  The overall forecast trend remains on track with the latest  
  deterministic trends showing the 850 mb low crossing Ohio, and the  
  sfc low moving across the Pittsburgh area tonight. The resulting  
  temperature profile will alter precipitation phase and thus snow and  
  ice amounts. Snow amount has been tweaked downward and ice adjusted  
  for the overall trend with sfc temperature providing some accretion  
  limitations for some areas. None of this will alter overall  
  conditions for the Winter Storm Warning or Advisory which remain in  
  effect due to impact on travel. 

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1 minute ago, SteelCity87 said:

Really can't decide what to do about work tonight. Was planning on calling off without a doubt but now?

You're in a tough position. If this stays mixed and doesn't go to rain then this is gonna be a nightmare. I find it hard to believe that this doesn't turn to rain at some point. That low looks like it wants to visit Eastern Ohio, but what do I know im just a dumbass weenie. 

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