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north pgh

Western Pa / Pittsburgh area Winter Discussion ❄️☃️

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3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

At the end of the day all the meteorologists can do is use the tools they have at their disposal. Sure you can apply local / regional climatology and outcomes of past similar storm evolutions but if all that’s based on incorrect variables from guidance used as your initial base state you don’t stand a chance.

Thats why you see more seasoned folks reluctant to jump head first into forecasts depicting big events. As we have just witnessed even with a solid consensus it’s still possible to be wrong enough to dramatically effect the outcome. Then your left with trying to explain what happened to a general public that has little to no understanding of how anything in the process works let alone even a scrap of atmospheric science. It’s all a bunch of H and L graphics on a map with pretty colors to most.

This is absolutely what I’m referring to when I refer to the “bureaucratic nonsense” that I’m completely certain the NWS has to deal with. That having to issue a warning and then back it off to an advisory leaves the ignorant general public confused and thinking the NWS is totally incompetent. Almost like a Dunning-Kruger effect. And so the higher up bureaucrats probably frown upon that happening too many times for that reason. 

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2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Looks like the NAM has the snow/sleet line wrong. Stolen from LakeEffectKing in the Upstate thread. 

 

ipTavx2.jpg

Lol - don’t start. I already found myself noticing HRRR soundings holding on to snow a little longer.

Maybe we can squeeze out a quick second thump before the ice 

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Yeah they can't have a knee jerk reaction with every model run. Just yesterday my neighbor tells me we are getting 10-12. I wasn't gonna argue but I said I wouldn't be surprised if we got a lot less. The general public is clueless when it comes to the intricacies of forecasting. 

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Just now, Burghblizz said:

Lol - don’t start. I already found myself noticing HRRR soundings holding on to snow a little longer.

Maybe we can squeeze out a quick second thump before the ice 

Lol I'm not starting anything I know we aren't gonna get all snow but this error could be the difference between me leaving the house later and me hunkering down because of sleet/icy mix. 

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2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

This is absolutely what I’m referring to when I refer to the “bureaucratic nonsense” that I’m completely certain the NWS has to deal with. That having to issue a warning and then back it off to an advisory leaves the ignorant general public confused and thinking the NWS is totally incompetent. Almost like a Dunning-Kruger effect. And so the higher up bureaucrats probably frown upon that happening too many times for that reason. 

Yes when i said scrutiny, this is what i mean. I don't think they deserve it. We all see what these storms can do in just a few model runs. But its not about what we understand it is about the general public. My neighbors a perfect examples. I saw them two days ago and they were asking me about the snow that is coming. I told them that 6+ was on the table ( just like we all would have). They responded with " yea, i'll believe that when i see it. I saw on WPXI they were calling for 6-10. Its just hype to get people to click their links. I wish i had a job where i could be wrong all the time and face no consequences." 

Unfortunately, this is who they have to deal with.

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As much as we have all been disappointed the last 48 hours this mornings heavy snow is good to see. In recent years we would get nothing but a little sleet or ice and change to rain. We could easily pick up a quick 2-4 this morning before it ends. Another positive note....we had 7 inches on the ground and the freezing drizzle put a glaze of ice on our snowpack and now we are putting more snow on top of that. Even with a mix tonight it should do nothing to our snowpack which will keep us cold for later this week. Gotta find the positives. Who knows? Maybe tonight will surprise us. :sled:

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5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Lol I'm not starting anything I know we aren't gonna get all snow but this error could be the difference between me leaving the house later and me hunkering down because of sleet/icy mix. 

Yes, maybe this errors keeps up from raining at all. Bad for anyone that would have to drive. 

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7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Yes when i said scrutiny, this is what i mean. I don't think they deserve it. We all see what these storms can do in just a few model runs. But its not about what we understand it is about the general public. My neighbors a perfect examples. I saw them two days ago and they were asking me about the snow that is coming. I told them that 6+ was on the table ( just like we all would have). They responded with " yea, i'll believe that when i see it. I saw on WPXI they were calling for 6-10. Its just hype to get people to click their links. I wish i had a job where i could be wrong all the time and face no consequences.

Unfortunately, this is who they have to deal with.

Every time I hear this line uttered, and it’s been many, I want to gouge my eardrums out with a pen. But yes, that is the general public’s philosophy on a topic they know literally nothing about. And that is who the NWS’s messaging is directed at, and so there’s pressure from all sides to stay the course when a warning or advisory is issued, so we don’t confuse them. Weather enthusiasts like us are a different breed.

Side note: WPXI isn’t my favorite local news source for weather forecasts, but I’m a die-hard Jeopardy fan and usually switch to Netflix/Hulu at 7:30, so if I switch back to the TV earlier in the evening when making/eating dinner, etc., it’s often what’s on and I’m too lazy to change it.

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15 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

NAM showing no snow Thursday essentially...all ice. I know it’s easy to dismiss but the NAM was dead on for this storm. 

Especially considering the prior run showed 4 inches. Also, how far south does the goddamn low need to be to give us snow? Infuriating.

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Just now, north pgh said:

Watching closely the 18HRRR for what it's worth but it is trending colder and looks to start as snow around 6:00 tonight. Maybe a little shift that we need. 

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_9.png

The front is definitely east of the model guidance. Still a chance this busts high. We have seen it before. 

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1 minute ago, north pgh said:

Watching closely the 18HRRR for what it's worth but it is trending colder and looks to start as snow around 6:00 tonight. Maybe a little shift that we need. 

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_9.png

Also blasts our temperature above freezing as early as 9pm.

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Watching closely the 18HRRR for what it's worth but it is trending colder and looks to start as snow around 6:00 tonight. Maybe a little shift that we need. 
hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_9.png&key=1fa8506eeb536291995e0993cc48291edfeabf0536a67e15dcf0ea7129b2291d

Could see some awesome rates that close to the line.


.

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27 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

NAM showing no snow Thursday essentially...all ice. I know it’s easy to dismiss but the NAM was dead on for this storm. 

It’s also showing no snow with round 2 tonight. I know it’s not a 1:1 comparison but it will be interesting to see how that plays out. May give some hints for Thursday especially considering (as of right now) we should have colder air in place ahead of it, the high is a little stronger to the north and the low is tracking further South.

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At this point, since there isn’t much hope of snow, just give me the 3/4” of ice the NAM is depicting. Won’t need to worry about hypothermia if the power goes out since it’ll be 32-37 degrees outside by morning.

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1 hour ago, north pgh said:

As much as we have all been disappointed the last 48 hours this mornings heavy snow is good to see. In recent years we would get nothing but a little sleet or ice and change to rain. We could easily pick up a quick 2-4 this morning before it ends. Another positive note....we had 7 inches on the ground and the freezing drizzle put a glaze of ice on our snowpack and now we are putting more snow on top of that. Even with a mix tonight it should do nothing to our snowpack which will keep us cold for later this week. Gotta find the positives. Who knows? Maybe tonight will surprise us. :sled:

I hope you are right on this, I can see a scenario with heavy plain rain that would really decimate the snowpack. Not saying I expect this, but I think it’s a possible outcome if things break in the wrong direction.

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8 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I hope you are right on this, I can see a scenario with heavy plain rain that would really decimate the snowpack. Not saying I expect this, but I think it’s a possible outcome if things break in the wrong direction.

All outcomes are on the table at this point, including perhaps reaching our first 40 degree temperature of the month sometime after midnight. Again, I don’t expect that, but it’s a nonzero probability at this point.

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7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:


Could see some awesome rates that close to the line.


.

No doubt, if we can squeeze out some heavy rates before the changeover, that would be a small victory.

Would help keep the ice off the pavement for work tomorrow morning. Lol

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Slightly off topic, before moving to Pittsburgh, I lived in Frisco, TX, a suburb of Dallas. My friends down there were texting me this morning to revel in their 6" of snow this morning. It truly was an historic storm for them. 

123_1.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, OutnOakmont said:

Slightly off topic, before moving to Pittsburgh, I lived in Frisco, TX, a suburb of Dallas. My friends down there were texting me this morning to revel in their 6" of snow this morning. It truly was an historic storm for them. 

123_1.jpeg

The percentage of the map of the lower 48 that was pink at that moment was incredible and probably unprecedented.

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Still bad news tonight, but massive SE shift for the GFS for Thursday.

8” on the GFS, 7” on the para.

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Just now, TimB84 said:

Still bad news tonight, but massive SE shift for the GFS for Thursday.

Yep Thursday needs to be watched after this clears out. Still could get a thump before we switch tonight. 

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13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Yep Thursday needs to be watched after this clears out. Still could get a thump before we switch tonight. 

I still think said “thump” will be freezing rain at best and not snow.

Here’s a fun question: if the late week storm misses us, is it more likely to go too far SE and give us nothing, or NW and give us rain?

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