dj3 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said: I would say the overall feel of this storm reminds me a little bit of Jan 1996 and Jan 2016. Hopefully the Jan 1996 part carries more weight. Was thinking about both of these. For some reason I like where we sit. If dc is dealing with mixing issues I’d be pretty surprised if we didn’t get significant precip thrown back this way for a storm of this magnitude. Jan 2016 was a pretty sharp cut off north to south and this one appears more west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southpark Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, dj3 said: Was thinking about both of these. For some reason I like where we sit. If dc is dealing with mixing issues I’d be pretty surprised if we didn’t get significant precip thrown back this way for a storm of this magnitude. Jan 2016 was a pretty sharp cut off north to south and this one appears more west to east. My sister lives about 10 miles south of me and got double the amount in Jan 2016. Cut off was BRUTAL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 RGEM is better compared to 18z. Gives us more of the line of 4-6 and not 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 GFS is certainly an improvement. I think it is starting to pick up on the CCB throwing back more substantial snow towards us which I think is our best hope at this point rather than hoping for a big shift in low placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeB_01 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 24 hour trend in at the 500 level. Slight, but definitely moving in the right direction. Precip also moving that direction over the 24 hours period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 What the Canadian took away at 12z, we got back at 0z. Nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 Nice trends tonight. Time for bed. Up early tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 OT, steelers better be careful. They are getting into danger territory of losing the division. Or not. Browns going to Browns. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: OT, steelers better be careful. They are getting into danger territory of losing the division. Or not. Browns going to Browns. Well, this is a hell of a game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutnOakmont Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 I keep reading the forecast discussion to see if it's changed with some of these runs and it continues to be fuddy dud central! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, OutnOakmont said: I keep reading the forecast discussion to see if it's changed with some of these runs and it continues to be fuddy dud central! Same verbiage since 1:00 this afternoon. Pitiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, OutnOakmont said: I keep reading the forecast discussion to see if it's changed with some of these runs and it continues to be fuddy dud central! They won't update map totals / expand watches etc until the full 00z suite is in and any required coordination with other offices if necessary is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, north pgh said: Same verbiage since 1:00 this afternoon. Pitiful KPIT has always been horrendous compared to other offices. They run the same discussions for 24 hours and in the midst of a very complex storm for the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Just now, RitualOfTheTrout said: They won't update map totals / expand watches etc until the full 00z suite is in and any required coordination with other offices if necessary is done. They could update the discussion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: KPIT has always been horrendous compared to other offices. They run the same discussions for 24 hours and in the midst of a very complex storm for the region. If by horrendous you mean lack of details in the discussions at times I don't disagree. They aren't always bad depending who writes them up. Fries and one other who's name escapes me usually do a pretty good job. I did a skywarn class several years ago and afterwards talking to the presenter I mentioned enjoying reading Fries detailed discussions and he said he had heard that from others too ( specifically local news Mets etc) I'm not sure if he is even still at our office or not these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackngoldrules Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Well, I haven't posted here in a while, but trying to get back into the hobby again. Losing my wife last year messed with me in so many ways, but I'm trying to find joy in my old hobbies again and this was definitely one of them. Anyway, I've been checking out the models today and I do like our trend as of now. Definitely an advisory event and trending toward hopefully a WSW. Last winter was a complete dud. Not that I cared personally as I just wasn't into it, but maybe this winter will be a little better for us. Already one good event so far and the possibility of another before winter officially begins. Anyway, missed you guys and missed this page. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 15, 2020 Author Share Posted December 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, blackngoldrules said: Well, I haven't posted here in a while, but trying to get back into the hobby again. Losing my wife last year messed with me in so many ways, but I'm trying to find joy in my old hobbies again and this was definitely one of them. Anyway, I've been checking out the models today and I do like our trend as of now. Definitely an advisory event and trending toward hopefully a WSW. Last winter was a complete dud. Not that I cared personally as I just wasn't into it, but maybe this winter will be a little better for us. Already one good event so far and the possibility of another before winter officially begins. Anyway, missed you guys and missed this page. Welcome back. So sorry about your wife. We’re here for any support we can give. God bless. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Sorry to hear about your wife. Glad to have you back tracking. 0z Euro was a decent hit for the area. Ups the areas QPF to .8 from .7. The 1 inch line is very close to the AGH County line now. Tomorrow's runs are gonna be very interesting if we get some last minute west trends. Will the GFS cave though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 While you were sleeping, my hard work has produced: -Winter Storm Watches expanded to southwest PA counties -Euro looking more robust at 0Z -NAM going nuts at 6z. Wont even mention those totals -GFS at 6z coming around, creeping 8-12” totals in south and east of the city. Would love to see one more push with that. If we can have SLP track to the Chesapeake and have this close off at 500, it’s legit game on. That would turn WAA snows early on to the more prolonged/heavy CCB. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 32 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: While you were sleeping, my hard work has produced: -Winter Storm Watches expanded to southwest PA counties -Euro looking more robust at 0Z -NAM going nuts at 6z. Wont even mention those totals -GFS at 6z coming around, creeping 8-12” totals in south and east of the city. Would love to see one more push with that. If we can have SLP track to the Chesapeake and have this close off at 500, it’s legit game on. That would turn WAA snows early on to the more prolonged/heavy CCB. I had to look at the NAM twice lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... An upper level split-flow wave will cross the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a swath of moisture across the Upper Ohio. Associated sfc low pressure will develop across the upper Mississippi Valley before deepening off the Carolinas and riding up the Atlantic coastline. Transient left-exit and coupled jet support are progged to generate broad ascent to support mainly snow beginning Wednesday morning, then ramping up during the afternoon and overnight. Significant uncertainty remains with regards to snow amounts across the forecast area. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to support a large range in possible snow totals, primarily due to large differences in QPF amounts and placement of the sfc low to our east. The 00z ECMWF run in particular places the sfc low much farther west and north than previous cycles, though without full EC ensemble and other deterministic agreement, this was not enough reason to significantly inflate our official snow totals at this time. Some question also remains with the extent of warm advection across the lower elevations of WV into SW PA on Wednesday afternoon/ early evening as this could impact initial snow totals. With further penetration of warm air, some potential also exists for brief freezing rain across this area and into the lower ridges. However, the window for this is small, as more substantial warm advection would likely bump marginal sfc temperatures above the freezing mark. Rapid system progression also presents a barrier to high snow totals, as the system quickly shifts off the coast early Thursday morning and shuts off efficient snowfall. Highest snow totals remain over the Allegheny Mountains and ridges, with lesser snow farther west. Confidence in 8+ inches of snow is high enough across the higher elevations to support an upgrade from Watch to Winter Storm Warning in those areas. With increased snow amounts forecast farther west, the Watch was also expanded to include areas including Pittsburgh. Lower confidence exists across the lower elevations of Monongalia and Marion counties where warmer temperatures will likely inhibit initial snowfall totals. Watches and Warnings are in effect from 7AM Wed through 7AM Thu. Advisories will likely be needed for areas farther west, especially if the upward trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Liking the trends from overnight. I see we've got the NAM back on our side with a nice little jackpot over Westmoreland county LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 And a dry slot in fayette county! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Loving the expansion to the west from the CCB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 9 minutes ago, dj3 said: Loving the expansion to the west from the CCB What’s that little tongue of reduced totals in fayette county? Is that mixing issues or the LP transferring energy right there?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 8 hours ago, KPITSnow said: KPIT has always been horrendous compared to other offices. They run the same discussions for 24 hours and in the midst of a very complex storm for the region. They were awful in the last storm too. There first call was for less than an inch, I believe. Then obviously missing by about 6, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: What’s that little tongue of reduced totals in fayette county? Is that mixing issues or the LP transferring energy right there?.... On the euro I don't think it is mixing issues but moreso the CCB sets up the best banding north of Allegheny count even and keeps it cranking a little longer. From the 850 temps it doesn't look like anything goes above 0 in PA. The most recent NAM run did show some mixing inch it's way just across the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 40 minutes ago, dj3 said: Loving the expansion to the west from the CCB Euro dropping nearly a foot now! Wow. This could be really special. NAM is insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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