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“Let’s Talk Winter!


Steve
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I live about 1 mile from ilusnow and we had sleet to start, went over to fairly heavy snow but only lasted like 20mins, then 6 hrs of fairly heavy sleet, then about 9 last night went over to snow then it became heavy for a couple hours. So over 1" of sleet/crap, then 3-4" of fluff on top over that.  Thurs system is a whiff to the south for a foot for the Ohio river folks, then NW trend this time will be directly over the I-71 crowd! :wacko2:

 

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51 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

The Columbus airport with predictably the lowest total- barely 2" of mostly sleet.  

Not even going to follow the next storm.

It is like the sun rising, the sun setting, the moon rising-John Glenn will always have the lowest number. The only big exception(March 2008)just proves the rule! lol

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56 minutes ago, vespasian70 said:

Ah, c'mon... it looks pretty tasty.

namconus_ref_frzn_eus_39.jpg

Every winter, there was always that one storm that seemed like it was going to be good until the inevitable crash and burn.  After those, I always kind of lost interest in tracking winter storms for the season unless it was actually snowing. This was that storm. If the Thursday storm happens, great, but I'm at the I'll-believe-it-when-I-see-it stage of winter.   

Also, that NAM run barely gives anyone in Ohio anything, despite the look.  

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1 minute ago, jbcmh81 said:

Every winter, there was always that one storm that seemed like it was going to be good until the inevitable crash and burn.  After those, I always kind of lost interest in tracking winter storms for the season unless it was actually snowing. This was that storm. If the Thursday storm happens, great, but I'm at the I'll-believe-it-when-I-see-it stage of winter.   

 

I do understand this.

It is like the "Millennial Tower Syndrome"-I will believe it when the steel starts rising. I will believe in the big snow when I am digging my car out from under it

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41 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Every winter, there was always that one storm that seemed like it was going to be good until the inevitable crash and burn.  After those, I always kind of lost interest in tracking winter storms for the season unless it was actually snowing. This was that storm. If the Thursday storm happens, great, but I'm at the I'll-believe-it-when-I-see-it stage of winter.   

Also, that NAM run barely gives anyone in Ohio anything, despite the look.  

I'm with you.   Also that system Thursday looks like a couple inches best.

All that being said it's pretty damn wintry outside....in spite of all the cries of what could have been.   

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50 minutes ago, jbcmh81 said:

Also, that NAM run barely gives anyone in Ohio anything, despite the look.  

Agree. Despite the look it only drops a couple inches of snow. But last storm took a nw jig, maybe this does the same. It's funny though, as models had shown this second one being the stronger of the two, yet its significantly weaker.

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1 hour ago, jaf316 said:

I just want to see one solid, healthy, decent-sized snowmaker that we can all cash in on. This week marks 5 years I've lived in central OH, and I have yet to see a single 6+ incher imby.

Since 1884, Columbus has recorded 31 winters with at least 1 daily 6" snow event.  That's about 1 every 4.4 years, so it's not particularly unusual to go 5 years without one.  There hasn't been an official once in Columbus since the 2014-15 season, which is now 6 years.  The longest the city has ever gone without recording a 6" daily snowfall was 1918-19 to 1946-47, 28 straight years.  

However, if you expand it out to a 2-day event, which most storms actually are, the data changes somewhat to a much greater frequency.  At that standard, you surpass 110 for a frequency about 1 every 2 years.  However, there still hasn't been once since 2014-2015 and the longest period without one is 1921-22 to 1946-47, 25 years.  

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One moves NW and becomes a sleet fest, the next one goes SE and becomes a snoozefest. Central Ohio may very well be the worst location that receives snow, to actually get decent snow. Sure, we FINALLY had a storm near Christmas, and we had the one 2 weeks ago, but other than that this winter has sucked. Not as bad as last 2 years, but still isn't anything grand. Snow pack is useless imo if you aren't adding to it. My grade as of now is a C and if not for the Christmas Eve storm, it'd be a D.

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1 hour ago, jbcmh81 said:

Since 1884, Columbus has recorded 31 winters with at least 1 daily 6" snow event.  That's about 1 every 4.4 years, so it's not particularly unusual to go 5 years without one.  There hasn't been an official once in Columbus since the 2014-15 season, which is now 6 years.  The longest the city has ever gone without recording a 6" daily snowfall was 1918-19 to 1946-47, 28 straight years.  

However, if you expand it out to a 2-day event, which most storms actually are, the data changes somewhat to a much greater frequency.  At that standard, you surpass 110 for a frequency about 1 every 2 years.  However, there still hasn't been once since 2014-2015 and the longest period without one is 1921-22 to 1946-47, 25 years.  

Thanks for the info and historical perspective! At least it's not 1923...

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19 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

I think 3" is the total high end for Thursday barring a big NW shift. I'm starting wonder what the snow melt over the next few weeks will look like. I'm hoping it's more gradual and without any heavy rain so we don't have flooding issues.

Our snow pack probably has more staying power then some of the deeper snow pack further NW.  High water content and layers of frz rain/sleet mixed in.

High ratio snow is great but it disappears more quickly.   I'd still rather have the high ratio stuff though.

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31 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Our snow pack probably has more staying power then some of the deeper snow pack further NW.  High water content and layers of frz rain/sleet mixed in.

High ratio snow is great but it disappears more quickly.   I'd still rather have the high ratio stuff though.

Yeah mines is about 12" and only 1/2 of it is powedery snow, mostly concrete at this point. It's going to be a month before some of these plow piles are gone.

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It's funny we all called it a NW trend with the last storm, but it was more like a NW pop.   It literally unfolded during the storm.   I said I'd take my chances any day with a storm that rode from AL to central WV and east....but it got to WV and nudged into eastern OH, bringing the wtod with it.  It really sucks when you can't trust models 24 hrs out.

We rarely benefit from NW trends but the most infamous one that we did was PD03.  After the first wave came through the second bigger wave was supposed to be a miss south.  I checked I remember checking the.18z models that Saturday evening and everything had suddenly shifted central OH into the game and that was less than 24 hours out.

 

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17 minutes ago, buckeye said:

It's funny we all called it a NW trend with the last storm, but it was more like a NW pop.   It literally unfolded during the storm.   I said I'd take my chances any day with a storm that rode from AL to central WV and east....but it got to WV and nudged into eastern OH, bringing the wtod with it.  It really sucks when you can't trust models 24 hrs out.

We rarely benefit from NW trends but the most infamous one that we did was PD03.  After the first wave came through the second bigger wave was supposed to be a miss south.  I checked I remember checking the.18z models that Saturday evening and everything had suddenly shifted central OH into the game and that was less than 24 hours out.

 

So you’re saying there’s a chance? LOL

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57 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Our snow pack probably has more staying power then some of the deeper snow pack further NW.  High water content and layers of frz rain/sleet mixed in.

High ratio snow is great but it disappears more quickly.   I'd still rather have the high ratio stuff though.

Which is what I have to tell myself to feel better about all the snow in Chicago. (It'll melt really fast....lol) Desperate!

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16 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Just the bad luck. NW ohio made out this time like eastern ohio did during Christmas.

Ain't that the truth... Eastern Ohio was crushing it early on. Two weeks ago most of Northern OH was burried. Then last week Cincinnati got their big one. I'm still gonna end up right around or above average this season, and we broke our "no WSW streak" even though none of them verified.

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The biggest problem with yesterday's storm is the jet stream wasn't right for us, draw a line from New Orleans to Cleveland it didn't matter what the ground temps were, if you were on or east of that line, that's where the WTOD road that line. When you see Gulf Coast states, like S Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi get hammered with heavy snow and temps in the low teens to single digits, that's what burns our a$$eS!

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22 hours ago, Gino27 said:

Ain't that the truth... Eastern Ohio was crushing it early on. Two weeks ago most of Northern OH was burried. Then last week Cincinnati got their big one. I'm still gonna end up right around or above average this season, and we broke our "no WSW streak" even though none of them verified.

We had our synoptic run in December in Northeast Ohio... really rare to get two large storms like that in the same Winter. After those two storms I would have been perfectly content with an early Spring. 

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