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JoMo

MO/KS/AR/OK 2020-2021 "Winter" Discussion

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Up to 2" as far east as Tulsa tomorrow.

Quote
241 PM CST Mon Dec 14 2020

...Additional Snowfall Forecast Tuesday...

OKZ054-059-060-064>066-151000-
/O.NEW.KTSA.WW.Y.0009.201215T1700Z-201216T0300Z/
Osage-Pawnee-Tulsa-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-
Including the cities of Pawhuska, Pawnee, Tulsa, Sapulpa, Okemah,
and Okmulgee
241 PM CST Mon Dec 14 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Light to moderate snow is expected to push into northeast
  Oklahoma mid to late morning Tuesday and continue into Tuesday
  evening as a low pressure system moves eastward through the
  region. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches will be
  possible.

 

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2 hours ago, JoMo said:

Big ole slog of cold Arctic air for Christmas on the 12z GFS and Canadian this morning. Brrr.

Man I hope so! I see upper 50's creeping in the forecast, a cold Christmas would be so awesome and welcome for a change :)

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55 minutes ago, ouamber said:

Snowing in Tulsa again!!

This!!

It's very pretty, nothing too heavy, but definitely not just "flurries".

It's enough up here in Owasso to turn the melted patches light again, and the cars and roofs white again.

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All I'm going to say about Christmas 10 days out is this....

Cold Air....CHECK

Storm system coming through the plains...CHECK

 

Now if we can just get that system to come south and slow up, we'd be in business. A man can dream about a white Christmas, but even some flurries would be mood setting.

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I'm reasonably happy right now with the Christmas forecast. 

We've got very cold air making it's way down and a storm system swinging through. 

By that logic, the "hard part" is out of the way.

Now we just need some small adjustments to make snow on Christmas Eve/Christmas a reality.

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I'm reviving this statistical analysis I did last season to highlight how insane the snow drought here in NE OK was for those 5 seasons, but have updated it to reflect the past few days.
I took the total snowfall from every season in 5 year intervals dating back to 1950.
1950/1951 - 1954/1955- 48.3 in
1955/1956 - 1959/1960- 64 in
1960/1961 - 1964/1965- 32.4 in
1965/1966 - 1969/1970- 60.6 in
1970/1971 - 1974/1975- 37.6 in
1975/1976 - 1979/1980- 48.2 in
1980/1981 - 1984/1985- 34 in
1985/1986 - 1989/1990- 57.6 in
1990/1991 - 1994/1995- 41.7 in
1995/1996 - 1999/2000- 37.2 in
2000/2001 - 2004/2005- 55.1 in
2005/2006 - 2009/2010- 61 in
2010/2011 - 2014/2015- 52.4 in
2015/2016 - 2019/2020- 11.8 in
2020/2021- Present- 5.2 in
 
In just a matter of 3 days, we had almost half as much snow as we did in the past 5 seasons combined!
We average 45.85 inches every 5 seasons, so before the crazy snow drought, we were overperforming the previous 15 years!
Now that we got the monkey off our back, I'm confident in a return to normal from here on out, but we shall see!
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Stark difference between the 06z GFS and 00z Euro last night for temps on Christmas. Highs in the teens and 20's vs highs in the 40's and 50's

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Interesting 12z GEM run this morning. Clips portions of the area on Christmas. Splits ways with the GFS at day 5 or 6. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

 

 

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No dice on the 12z GFS and the 12z ICON changed back to the GFS'ish look. Canadian went more southern this run though. Hmm.

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32 minutes ago, JoMo said:

No dice on the 12z GFS and the 12z ICON changed back to the GFS'ish look. Canadian went more southern this run though. Hmm.

There was a comment in one of the other forums about the 12z NAM bringing the storm onshore further south into Central CA.  Not sure if that matters any at this point but worth noting.   
It seems like there are still a handful of different possible scenarios on the table.  
Would like to see the 12zEuro continue its trend from 00z. 

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17 hours ago, StormChazer said:

Gfs isn’t showing it on simulated precip, but that’s looking like a New Year’s Eve(give or take a day) ice storm given those near 32 degree temps and rain.

Latest 12Z GFS supporting this...

1609351200-M8NWm5egpwA.png

1609437600-SObWUchKRrk.png

1609480800-XghyslV79tg.png

 

 

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Should be another one after that as well.......

It does look interesting around New Years, pending temps which will probably be marginal again.

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