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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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 FVE finally got above zero.  1 PM obs: 1°, NW38G53, light snow.  WCI -27.  (Up from -38 at 7 AM)  Glad I'm not trying to drive between PQI and CAR.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Got some snow coming it looks like tomorrow.

A couple waves but snow growth looks pretty good.  Could be a refresh.  With no synoptic storms we need to keep limping along with butter on some bread.

Euro is the lightest...

GFS is the heaviest... this would be a good shot for the Northern Greens.

GGEM

NAM

Thanks for the great summary with the maps PF.  This March/April time of year can be when the refreshers are needed even more.  If temperatures either stay cold, or stay/get warm enough for corn it’s fine, but if you cycle through warm then back to cold, you end up with hard surfaces without a refresher.

Did you see that next potential refresher on Friday/Saturday?  It doesn’t look like too much, but it seems to be from that low pressure up near Newfoundland/Labrador that throws some moisture back this way.  It looks a bit out of the norm, and I actually have to go form CONUS view to North American view on the maps to get a feel for it.  The GFS has been showing it for a number of days, but I’m seeing it on other models as well now.

The BTV NWS AFD makes note of that stationary/retrograding low pressure up there, but mentions it more in the context of upcoming winds and temperatures later this week.

Bread&Butter.jpg

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Some models have like 0.40” water over JSpin (Canadian HRRR) lol.  I bet on an ensemble he’d had some 10-12” members ha.

Theres some workable QPF on the models over this way...that’s not the worst signal.

Well, 0.40” of L.E. is bordering on moderate resurfacing territory for the slopes, so that’s definitely worth watching to see if the accumulations call for some turns.  This is how it can be done around here though if there aren’t any major synoptic storms in the immediate future.

ThisIsHowWeDoIt.jpg

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Oh my goodness, just had to leave my room to turn in my rent check...was probably outside for 2 minutes...Holy crap it is cold!!!

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February Totals

Days with new snow:  23

Accumulating Storms:  12

Snowfall:  47.2”

Liquid Equivalent: 2.75”

SDD:  559.5

 

I’ve put together my numbers for February, and it looks like it came in as a solid winter month in the average range.  Liquid equivalent was about a half inch low relative to average, but everything else was pretty solid.

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

HREF mean likes 4-6” for the ski areas in NVT.

Good old SREF plumes are around 2” for MVL out in the valley, so one would think the slopes might get at least some help or a snowy day tomorrow.

Checking the Mansfield point forecast, it’s got 3-6” through tomorrow night, which is very much in line with those numbers.  The Jay Peak point forecast is closing in on the 4-8” range, and they’ve got both spots in that 4-6” darker blue shading on the BTV NWS expected snowfall map.

The latest BTV NWS AFD focuses a lot across the lake, where’s there’s a potential hotspot of accumulation and some enhanced Adirondack upslope precipitation associated with a mean 30 knot 925 mb westerly wind.

It certainly looks like there’s some decent bread and butter potential via the latest output from various mesoscale models, so we’ll see how it rolls through.

02MAR21A.jpg

02MAR21B.jpg

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4 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Well, 0.40” of L.E. is bordering on moderate resurfacing territory for the slopes, so that’s definitely worth watching to see if the accumulations call for some turns.  This is how it can be done around here though if there aren’t any major synoptic storms in the immediate future.

18z HRRR looks decent... even a third of an inch of water on the slopes would help.

457BE365-F2BA-4635-9578-B6823FBD8D86.thumb.jpeg.d20f992820e7151f266cd5e6e5ee4ef4.jpeg

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z HRRR looks decent... even a third of an inch of water on the slopes would help.

457BE365-F2BA-4635-9578-B6823FBD8D86.thumb.jpeg.d20f992820e7151f266cd5e6e5ee4ef4.jpeg

Wow that’s like no love whatsoever for us. This year, I believe it! :)

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21 minutes ago, alex said:

Wow that’s like no love whatsoever for us. This year, I believe it! :)

The BTV NWS AFD indicates that this is a decaying clipper, so it may just be petering out as it heads east:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

632 PM EST Tue Mar 2 2021

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

As of 558 PM EST Tuesday...moderate, steadier snowfall after midnight driven by significant warm air advection evidenced by veering wind profiles within an increasingly moist, deep layer ahead of a decaying clipper sliding through southwestern Quebec.

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5 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Well, 0.40” of L.E. is bordering on moderate resurfacing territory for the slopes, so that’s definitely worth watching to see if the accumulations call for some turns.  This is how it can be done around here though if there aren’t any major synoptic storms in the immediate future.

 

ThisIsHowWeDoIt.jpg

This is how we do it
It's Tuesday night, and I feel alright
The snow is here on the West spine
So I reach for my shovel and I tune it up
Designated driver, take the keys to my plow
Hit the ice cause I'm slippin'
Homies in the street say, "J. Spin, yo, the upslope made it!"
It feels so good in my hood tonight
The wintertime jackets and the guys in Carhartt
All the Vermonters forgot about the Grinch storm
You gotta get your Froude on, before you go get pow
So tip up your skis and throw your hands up
And let me hear the party say

 

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4 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Checking the Mansfield point forecast, it’s got 3-6” through tomorrow night, which is very much in line with those numbers.  The Jay Peak point forecast is closing in on the 4-8” range, and they’ve got both spots in that 4-6” darker blue shading on the BTV NWS expected snowfall map.

 

The latest BTV NWS AFD focuses a lot across the lake, where’s there’s a potential hotspot of accumulation and some enhanced Adirondack upslope precipitation associated with a mean 30 knot 925 mb westerly wind.

 

It certainly looks like there’s some decent bread and butter potential via the latest output from various mesoscale models, so we’ll see how it rolls through.

 

02MAR21A.jpg

02MAR21B.jpg

Heading back up tmrw so this would be a great refresher for Thursday and Friday.  GFS looks like it keeps "snow showers" in the forecast throughout the next few days.  I'm going to guess they need the refresh.  Jay reported a gust near 90 on the freezer this morning so with the thaw/freeze and heavy winds, those slopes have to be pretty bad.   Great news on the refresh; just hope the winds the next couple days don't blow everything down.  I bet the woods on Tram side will be the best bet where all that snow lands.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

This is how we do it
It's Tuesday night, and I feel alright
The snow is here on the West spine
So I reach for my shovel and I tune it up
Designated driver, take the keys to my plow
Hit the ice cause I'm slippin'
Homies in the street say, "J. Spin, yo, the upslope made it!"
It feels so good in my hood tonight
The wintertime jackets and the guys in Carhartt
All the Vermonters forgot about the Grinch storm
You gotta get your Froude on, before you go get pow
So tip up your skis and throw your hands up
And let me hear the party say

 

pure poetry! 

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This turned into quite the event in my neighborhood. The power went out around 9am this morning, and I relocated to a friend's house in North Conway to work for the day. While I was gone, several trees came down on wires across my driveway and I currently cannot get back to my house. Power remains out, and the house has no heat or water. I'll be spending the night in North Conway and hopefully all is restored by morning.

We were without power for exactly 24 hours following Tropical Storm Isaias in August, so this is the second prolonged outage I have experienced in six months.

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8 minutes ago, jculligan said:

This turned into quite the event in my neighborhood. The power went out around 9am this morning, and I relocated to a friend's house in North Conway to work for the day. While I was gone, several trees came down on wires across my driveway and I currently cannot get back to my house. Power remains out, and the house has no heat or water. I'll be spending the night in North Conway and hopefully all is restored by morning.

We were without power for exactly 24 hours following Tropical Storm Isaias in August, so this is the second prolonged outage I have experienced in six months.

Damn. Not a branch out of place up here. 

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15 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Damn. Not a branch out of place up here. 

Based on the outage map, it seems that my area was in a localized pocket of pretty significant damage. 71% of Jackson was still in the dark last I checked.

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49 minutes ago, jculligan said:

This turned into quite the event in my neighborhood. The power went out around 9am this morning, and I relocated to a friend's house in North Conway to work for the day. While I was gone, several trees came down on wires across my driveway and I currently cannot get back to my house. Power remains out, and the house has no heat or water. I'll be spending the night in North Conway and hopefully all is restored by morning.

We were without power for exactly 24 hours following Tropical Storm Isaias in August, so this is the second prolonged outage I have experienced in six months.

Yikes, I hope your pipes don’t freeze. 

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16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, ha that radar escalated fast on the west slope to the crest.

ACD4657F-F496-41D4-93C0-FB33A3B4E438.jpeg.5acc5d0150f1a2d57c162171e210c778.jpeg

There are some stronger echoes appearing on the composite radar now, so we’ll see if they produce anything over this way:

02MAR21B.gif

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8 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

GFS looks like its getting stronger with the Thurs night/Fri signal in the northern greens.

Ha!  Just saw that.  0.50-1.00” water through Saturday... Kuchara maps have 10-20” snow in Northern Greens next 4 days.

Those 850mb temps are perfect for a pow dump... cold -12C to -18C stuff.

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2 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

GFS looks like its getting stronger with the Thurs night/Fri signal in the northern greens.

Ha, great timing on bringing this up – I had just checked that latest GFS run and it’s definitely been bumping up the snow from that moisture being thrown back from the Newfoundland/Labrador low.  It’s certainly increased from the 00 Z run back 24 hours ago, but it’s been up and down over the past several days, so it’s definitely something to watch and the next potential one in the pipe after this current system.  The GFS has had it for a while, but other global models are also showing it.  We’ll see what the BTV NWS is thinking in their next discussion.

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49 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, ha that radar escalated fast on the west slope to the crest.

That really ramped up fast once those stronger echoes came in – we’ve got classic huge upslope flakes falling and we just picked up 1.3” in about 20 minutes, so it’s probably somewhere in the 3”/hr range at this point.  I’m planning to run an analysis at midnight, so we’ll see where things stand then.  If we’re getting hit that hard down here, the mountains must be getting blitzed.

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32 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

That really ramped up fast once those stronger echoes came in – we’ve got classic huge upslope flakes falling and we just picked up 1.3” in about 20 minutes, so it’s probably somewhere in the 3”/hr range at this point.  I’m planning to run an analysis at midnight, so we’ll see where things stand then.  If we’re getting hit that hard down here, the mountains must be getting blitzed.

Nice!  Yeah radar had that look.  Only about a half inch here the past hour.  Sparkling snow though.

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Event totals: 2.9” Snow/0.04” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 2.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.04 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 72.5

Snow Density: 1.4% H2O

Temperature: 15.3 F

Sky: Heavy Snow (4 to 20 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 19.0 inches

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Nice!  Yeah radar had that look.  Only about a half inch here the past hour.  Sparkling snow though.

You can see a couple of solid pulses crashing into the spine on the radar grab below, and those obviously held some moisture, but the snow growth and huge flakes is what put down such quick accumulation as the ratio shows.

The flakes were certainly pouring down at analysis time – it was the sort of snowfall where I dump and reset one board, then go and take care of another, and after you come back to the first one, it’s already got a half inch of new snow on it.  The real accumulation started at roughly 11:10 P.M., so that 2.9” that fell was in about 50 minutes.

Phin did say we’d be racking up 3 to 4 inches in this area, so we’ll see what’s on the boards in the morning.

02MAR21C.gif

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