wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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41 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yeah, it seems like none of the coastal storms that did get up here have really worked out for you. We haven’t really had a flush hit across the area from a synoptic event. It’s been a SNE-centric winter. The next several impulses have trended south too. We will get a couple inches here and there but no big dogs on the horizon. Where is the cold? Kinda dumb to have the storm track suppressed south when it isn’t even that cold here. 

I think many in SNE might disagree with that, lol.

We are in the sweet spot now... have a snowpack and just need a few inches every 2-3 days.  Those squally bursts lead to some fun snowy periods.  Hopefully get another one this evening.  Just pile up the pillows on everything.

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45 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I think many in SNE might disagree with that, lol.

We are in the sweet spot now... have a snowpack and just need a few inches every 2-3 days.  Those squally bursts lead to some fun snowy periods.  Hopefully get another one this evening.  Just pile up the pillows on everything.

Well, maybe coastal sections would complain, but they appear to be set up for several events starting right now. If they fumble the ball and end up with rain and slop instead, that's outside of my control. LOL

Interior SNE has done well. A look at the snowfall totals so far this season will show that. There is a screw zone in Maine, for sure.

Maybe western MA as well. I can't remember if they got clobbered in the mid-December storm or not.

The three big synoptic storms up here (early December, mid January, and early February) were also not universally awesome, especially for the CNE and eastern NH/ME areas that don't really get upslope.

Not complaining here. We have a deep pack, and the coastals have worked out here. Would be nice to get a flush hit for everyone in NNE, however. All the big storms this winter have been flawed in some way and kinda marginal.

Agreed on the bread and butter pattern being just right for spots with good pack. No doubt about it.

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11 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

 

The three big synoptic storms up here (early December, mid January, and early February) were also not universally awesome, especially for the CNE and eastern NH/ME areas that don't really get upslope.

 

My normal snowfall is in the 80's.  I have had 45".   That doesn't seem bad but that early December storm did dump in my area  24" in about 12 hours.  If we had missed that we would be way behind.  Nice pattern coming up.  Finally real New England cold and multiple snow events  (hopefully)

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14 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

GFS went south a bit on the 2/12 event.   Also went south on the Tuesday wave also.  Not liking those trends--but it is the GFS.

I hadn't looked at the 12Z GFS but yeah,  it takes everything south.  Looking at the Kuchera clown maps almost 2 feet from Baltimore to Hartford.

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7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I hadn't looked at the 12Z GFS but yeah,  it takes everything south.  Looking at the Kuchera clown maps almost 2 feet from Baltimore to Hartford.

Yep, hate to see it.  Phin gets his cold air and suppression.   Obviously day 7 jacks will fluctuate, but verbatim its -5F here while DC is S+.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

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17 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Yep, hate to see it.  Phin gets his cold air and suppression.   Obviously day 7 jacks will fluctuate, but verbatim its -5F here while DC is S+.

snku_acc.us_ne.png

IMO, it beats warmer air and suppression, which is the alternative, it seems.

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The sad part is, DC has had feet of modeled snow shown over the last 30 days and has basically zilch to show for it. Sell hard any model showing them getting pounded. That bullseye will verify further NE.

I think some parts of northern PA and southern NY state are having the winter of a lifetime. Been in every bullseye it seems.

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4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

HRRR says we get another healthy round of it this evening again.  And the 00z Euro had 5 different events in the next 10 days.

Active pattern for sure.  Here’s this evening’s HRRR total water.

B92542CE-AD06-40BF-B5A6-A9D4EE8E1760.thumb.png.8f88e95ad7d6a8d9e521c7d340f372cf.png

 

Thanks for keeping us updated on the maps for this next event PF – good use of the NNE thread, because I’m not seeing it really discussed elsewhere.

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51 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Yep, hate to see it.  Phin gets his cold air and suppression.   Obviously day 7 jacks will fluctuate, but verbatim its -5F here while DC is S+.

It's about climo time of year for the furthest south of the baroclinic zone... I think we'll be snowy enough regardless to keep the snow parade going.

It's moose fart season, every little ripple brings some fluff.  Keeps things looking great.  We were out at Ranch Camp last night here in Stowe Village and I couldn't believe how much it looked like scenes from western ski trips to like Park City or Colorado.  Just mushroom caps of snow... even without a huge depth, the fluffer nutters just stack so nicely.  If we can stay cold and keep adding 1-6" events and keep the ski town stoke vibe high.

Untitled.jpg

 

That 12z GFS run was serviceable for sure on the whole though.  Run it out, it's still a snowy 2 weeks with no chance of a rainer.  Just keep throwing a little snow on top.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_kuchera-4081600.thumb.png.b7dba52820ee9c992112a0f5ad4a7c3e.png

 

 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's about climo time of year for the furthest south of the baroclinic zone... I think we'll be snowy enough regardless to keep the snow parade going.

It's moose fart season, every little ripple brings some fluff.  Keeps things looking great.  We were out at Ranch Camp last night here in Stowe Village and I couldn't believe how much it looked like scenes from western ski trips to like Park City or Colorado.  Just mushroom caps of snow... even without a huge depth, the fluffer nutters just stack so nicely.  If we can stay cold and keep adding 1-6" events and keep the ski town stoke vibe high.

Untitled.jpg

 

Yea, true, peak climo for I-95 crew.  Moose Farts  and Trout burps can keep the winter vibe going in Northern greens and over to Phin/Alex and to a lesser extent even here, but the Gene/dendrite/dryslot areas need some well placed shortwave.  I'm sure we will get some synoptic events also, hopefully not a 09-10 suppression for the next weeks.

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's about climo time of year for the furthest south of the baroclinic zone... I think we'll be snowy enough regardless to keep the snow parade going.

It's moose fart season, every little ripple brings some fluff.  Keeps things looking great.  We were out at Ranch Camp last night here in Stowe Village and I couldn't believe how much it looked like scenes from western ski trips to like Park City or Colorado.  Just mushroom caps of snow... even without a huge depth, the fluffer nutters just stack so nicely.  If we can stay cold and keep adding 1-6" events and keep the ski town stoke vibe high.

Untitled.jpg

 

That 12z GFS run was serviceable for sure on the whole though.  Run it out, it's still a snowy 2 weeks with no chance of a rainer.  Just keep throwing a little snow on top.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_kuchera-4081600.thumb.png.b7dba52820ee9c992112a0f5ad4a7c3e.png

 

 

Trending closer to reality.

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Trending closer to reality.

Yeah I’d lean a bit north of guidance in the means.  Maybe that cold really presses in but plenty of times those modify a little bit.

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44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's about climo time of year for the furthest south of the baroclinic zone... I think we'll be snowy enough regardless to keep the snow parade going.

It's moose fart season, every little ripple brings some fluff.  Keeps things looking great.  We were out at Ranch Camp last night here in Stowe Village and I couldn't believe how much it looked like scenes from western ski trips to like Park City or Colorado.  Just mushroom caps of snow... even without a huge depth, the fluffer nutters just stack so nicely.  If we can stay cold and keep adding 1-6" events and keep the ski town stoke vibe high.

Untitled.jpg

 

That 12z GFS run was serviceable for sure on the whole though.  Run it out, it's still a snowy 2 weeks with no chance of a rainer.  Just keep throwing a little snow on top.

gfs-deterministic-neng-total_snow_kuchera-4081600.thumb.png.b7dba52820ee9c992112a0f5ad4a7c3e.png

 

 

This is turning into a hell of a snow season for me.  It seems lately I leave snow up north to drive back to snow in Jersey.  And from a weather geek standpoint, two totally different type events producing results.  I’ve been enjoying the daily 3-6 refreshers perfect for ski season and tracking the synoptic nor-easters for Jersey snow.  A 44.1 spot in nj and 31.8+ in jay is quite the two week stretch, knowing that the globals will miss a lot of our bread and butter.

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4 minutes ago, alex said:

Can’t get over how nice the glades are. And it’s snowing quite nicely! My kids are having a blast on the T bar. I much prefer the gondola lol

7E07393C-4F65-4C5F-B8FA-EE103A025A66.jpeg

That looks like a nice open glade to learn in!

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7 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

That looks like a nice open glade to learn in!

Yes there are quite a few over here. The trees are nicely spaced and they’re not steep, they’re perfect for kids 

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Ice skating at nestlenook farm with snow falling. NNE life. Too bad I am terrible at ice skating. LOL

Love that place!!! It’s as close to a real life Xmas Hallmark movie as it gets 

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