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Chicago Storm

Late August Heat Wave

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I know Alek brought it up a couple days ago, but of concern could be wildfire smoke from out west...which could also keep high temps in check a bit this week.

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43 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It seems hazy/smoky right now.  Not sure if it's that or just my imagination.

I was listening to the Cubs/Sox game earlier and Pat and Ron mentioned the hazy conditions at Wrigley, which seemed unusual as they also reported a stiff wind blowing out to center.

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Here are some stats on how many times each hi temp has occurred in August in Chicago.  An oddity is having more 98 than 97 days.  The all-time August record of 102 occurred in 1918.

 

97F:  19 days

98F:  22 days

99F:  11 days

100F:  6 days

101F:  4 days

102F:  1 day

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HRRR has 96/97 for today now.

If that happens, would mean things are lining up more with the Euro thermals than the GFS...As Euro has 28C at 925mb this afternoon, while GFS only has 25C.


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31 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

HRRR has 96/97 for today now.

If that happens, would mean things are lining up more with the Euro thermals than the GFS...As Euro has 28C at 925mb this afternoon, while GFS only has 25C.


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91 at ORD now.  96 or 97 is all but guaranteed.  Fwiw, it warmed 7 degrees after this time yesterday.  

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Growing chance that I pull the trigger on 100 at ORD Wed.  One of the things I am waiting to see is to make sure that early Tue convection doesn't pull a surprise and drop significant rain at ORD.  Ideally, would like to see stronger model agreement on it, but I think mother nature is tipping her hand that it could be damn close if not make it to 100. 

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Growing chance that I pull the trigger on 100 at ORD Wed.  One of the things I am waiting to see is to make sure that early Tue convection doesn't pull a surprise and drop significant rain at ORD.  Ideally, would like to see stronger model agreement on it, but I think mother nature is tipping her hand that it could be damn close if not make it to 100. 

I'll go under.

Even the Euro and its warmer thermal does not hit 100.

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4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'll go under.

Even the Euro and its warmer thermal does not hit 100.

Euro is going to be 2-3 degrees too cool for today.

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I'm noticing a lot of haze today, and when I look at the satellite, the very vague cloud cover indicated looks indicative of smoke in the past.  Anyone else think it's smoke from wildfires to the west?  That may affect temps by a couple degrees, at least north of Chicago, today.  My thermometer is only 82.5F right now with almost full sun otherwise.

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1 minute ago, wisconsinwx said:

I'm noticing a lot of haze today, and when I look at the satellite, the very vague cloud cover indicated looks indicative of smoke in the past.  Anyone else think it's smoke from wildfires to the west?  That may affect temps by a couple degrees, at least north of Chicago, today.  My thermometer is only 82.5F right now with almost full sun otherwise.

Smoke extends across the whole region already.

Up to 89 at MKE.

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57 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Euro is going to be 2-3 degrees too cool for today.

Euro has 95, and I'm not sure it'll be too far off.

ORD flat-lined at 92/93.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Euro has 95, and I'm not sure it'll be too far off.

ORD flat-lined at 92/93.

I know you have access to the specific output for ORD.  I was looking at 2m maps and couldn't tell if it was 94 or 95.

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Just now, Chicago Storm said:

Up to 95 at ORD now.


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yup. just beat me to it.

Your Home Timeline

 
 
 
SfOBfLKs_bigger.jpg
 
Highest temperature so far this hour (1pm-2pm hour) at #Chicago O'Hare and Midway has been 95° at both airports. Warmest temperature of 2020 so far for Chicago has been 96° on July 7th and July 26th

 

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Tomorrow easily has the largest bust potential in the area, with about a 6-8 degree range in potential outcomes at ORD.  If the outflow is slower to mix out, then it could struggle to get to 90.  If the outflow is very shallow and mixes out more quickly (or if it unexpectedly doesn't materialize), then mid to upper 90s would be achievable.

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Dews continue to hold in the low to mid 70s around these parts, probably limiting heating a bit.  MLI has languished the past few hours after attaining 93 at noon.  It's hit 95 here so far, with dews bouncing between 73-75.  Across the river at Clinton they have a dew of 76.  Pretty impressive for late August with such dry surface conditions.  

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I know you have access to the specific output for ORD.  I was looking at 2m maps and couldn't tell if it was 94 or 95.

Wish the NWS would make their sensor data live.  I've been uploading nearly live weather data to the net for about 9 years, so it can't be that complicated for them to be able to do that.  With today's technology these once per hour obs are a bit dated IMO.  

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20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Make that 96 now.


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No way in hell that Wed's high will be below 97, imo.  If I had to give a probability breakdown, I'd go something like this

97:  15%

98:  30%

99:  30%

100:  20%

101:  5%

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

No way in hell that Wed's high will be below 97, imo.  If I had to give a probability breakdown, I'd go something like this

97:  15%

98:  30%

99:  30%

100:  20%

101:  5%

 

Your call averages out to 98.7 then

my math :clap:

 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Tomorrow easily has the largest bust potential in the area, with about a 6-8 degree range in potential outcomes at ORD.  If the outflow is slower to mix out, then it could struggle to get to 90.  If the outflow is very shallow and mixes out more quickly (or if it unexpectedly doesn't materialize), then mid to upper 90s would be achievable.

I think it'll be hard to miss out on the front and outflow, given the support among guidance.

Most guidance does recover into the low-mid 90's though.

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Dews refused to mix out in this area today, but we still made the mid 90s.  Hope for better mixing tomorrow to attain upper 90s.

The slightly higher dews may have allowed this convection popping up nearly overhead to occur.  Very nice updraft literally straight up overhead, with a nice base just to the south.  

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