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Late August Heat Wave


Chicago Storm
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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I'd feel pretty good about it in the metro area if those temps aloft pan out... especially with the recent dryness and more dry days coming.  Would probably be more questionable in outlying/rural areas.

But I have a bad feeling that ORD is going to max at 98 or 99.  Lol <_<

What do you foresee the max being for Milwaukee?  I still don’t see any 90s in the forecast but it’s darn close.  Hopefully weak flow so we get the lake breeze.

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10 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

What do you foresee the max being for Milwaukee?  I still don’t see any 90s in the forecast but it’s darn close.  Hopefully weak flow so we get the lake breeze.

I think it's possible there is a day or two of 90s at MKE on Wednesday and/or Thursday, but that is getting almost a week out so we'll see.  I wouldn't put a number on it yet other than to say it won't be as high as ORD.

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And so it begins...

 

“Only” hit 88° at ORD yesterday. Mixing was only to 875mb, which limited high temps. Deeper mixing to 850mb would have supported about 91°.

 

Today increasing clouds will be an issue, along with mixing to only 875mb once again...though UA temps are a bit warmer than yesterday. I’m guessing the high will be limited to about 88° due to the mixing issue and cloud combo. Deeper mixing would have supported about 92°.

 

 

Tomorrow will likely have some of the same issues as today. Deeper mixing into better UA environment would support about 93°, though I’m guessing we will be limited to 90°.

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Suppose I will take a crack at highs for ORD.

Who cares about today/tomorrow.  Let's get to the good stuff.

 

Mon:  93

Tue:  97

Wed:  99

Thu:  96

 

Wednesday is the only day I see that has a realistic shot at hitting 100.  Tuesday would be about as likely as making a halfcourt shot while blindfolded.

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12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

And so it begins...

 

“Only” hit 88° at ORD yesterday. Mixing was only to 875mb, which limited high temps. Deeper mixing to 850mb would have supported about 91°.

 

Today increasing clouds will be an issue, along with mixing to only 875mb once again...though UA temps are a bit warmer than yesterday. I’m guessing the high will be limited to about 88° due to the mixing issue and cloud combo. Deeper mixing would have supported about 92°.

 

 

Tomorrow will likely have some of the same issues as today. Deeper mixing into better UA environment would support about 93°, though I’m guessing we will be limited to 90°.

yup. time to punt watering the lawn. Lost cause I suspect. Wife's first day of school with open windows is Thursday...so you know it's going to torch.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like the 12z Euro cut back on the heat on Tuesday in northeast IL, especially closer to the lake.  That is sort of a new development so we'll see if it's a blip or future runs are warmer.

Other guidance shows it as well, pretty much a back-door front. Previous runs had kept it further north in WI/MI, but there have been some runs further south.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Suppose I will take a crack at highs for ORD.

Who cares about today/tomorrow.  Let's get to the good stuff.

 

Mon:  93

Tue:  97

Wed:  99

Thu:  96

 

Wednesday is the only day I see that has a realistic shot at hitting 100.  Tuesday would be about as likely as making a halfcourt shot while blindfolded.

I'd probably go under on all of those.

Wed is looking like the only slam dunk mid-upper 90's day at this point.

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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Other guidance shows it as well, pretty much a back-door front. Previous runs had kept it further north in WI/MI, but there have been some runs further south.

NAM has it substantially farther north.  Question is whether to trust the NAM 3 days out.  

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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I'd probably go under on all of those.

Wed is looking like the only slam dunk mid-upper 90's day at this point.

Thursday looks like a classic sneaky hot day to me.  I was almost tempted to bump it a degree higher.  Coming off of Wed, front still to the north and the possible tropical remnants passing far enough south.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Thursday looks like a classic sneaky hot day to me.  I was almost tempted to bump it a degree higher.  Coming off of Wed, front still to the north and the possible tropical remnants passing far enough south.

My issue with Thur is the TC remnants potential. Think the combination of cooling UA temps and potentially an increase in clouds/moisture will put a limit on temps.

Thur could end up hotter than Tue if that back-door front idea happens, but if not...Tue will still be the hotter day of the two.

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Looks like a good shot to break MLI's weak sauce 94 max for the summer with this wave.  Euro shows 96-97 for a few days, so we'll see.  Earlier in the summer it was underdoing temps by 3-5 degrees, but now I'm not so sure as I haven't been paying much attention to it.  The surface is quite dry now, and corn crops are very quickly drying out as we head towards harvest season.  I'll be optimistic and go with 98 for max for the week at MLI.

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23 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Suppose I will take a crack at highs for ORD.

Who cares about today/tomorrow.  Let's get to the good stuff.

 

Mon:  93

Tue:  97

Wed:  99

Thu:  96

 

Wednesday is the only day I see that has a realistic shot at hitting 100.  Tuesday would be about as likely as making a halfcourt shot while blindfolded.

I think I am a bit too cool for Monday.  Mid 90s (95 or 96) appears to be in play if things go right.  Tuesday still has a decent amount of uncertainty with guidance bouncing around on potential impacts from backdoor front/outflow.

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I think I am a bit too cool for Monday.  Mid 90s (95 or 96) appears to be in play if things go right.  Tuesday still has a decent amount of uncertainty with guidance bouncing around on potential impacts from backdoor front/outflow.

Yea, growing support for tomorrow to be a hotter day for sure.

I’d probably go with 95 as it looks now.


.
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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Hey cyclone you wanna take the under at MLI?

HRRRNIL_sfc_temp_032.png.d069e079374551d79256f9eb2eb6f800.png

I'll go under with a 96 for the new hottest temp of the season.  NEST shows 94 and it's usually a few degrees too cool it seems.  Although the 12z NEST had MLI at 89 at 19z which is spot on, while the 12z HRRR is already 3 degrees too warm.  

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My thoughts on this period...

For this weekend what I thought vs reality...Ended up being a bit cooler on Fri/Sat than expected, due to less mixing than expected.

Fri 90/88, Sat 91/89, Sun 92/92* (*So far).

This period will not only be the hottest period of the year, but likely will surpass Sept 2017 as the hottest period since July 2012.

My guess at it...

Mon 95, Tue 96, Wed 97, Thur 96, Fri 90

Of concern would be back-door front and t'storm potential nearby Mon night/Tue morning, which could limit Tue high temps...and then what happens with TC remnants for Fri. Both days could end up hotter/cooler. Euro would suggest Wed has a shot at 100, but it is alone in that idea, well warmer with 925mb temps than other guidance.

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