• Member Statistics

    16,271
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gelavis
    Newest Member
    Gelavis
    Joined
Itstrainingtime

Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

We're already under an enhanced risk for wind tomorrow on SPC's day 2 outlook. No way we miss out on both days...right? 

No way I miss out on wind here I can almost guarantee that.  We get wind like no where I have ever lived.  Rain.  We could be at 100% chance and still miss out because of the Great Valley down-sloping  and drying out/skipping us so often.

Great Appalachian Valley - Wikipedia

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow!!! Thanks so much for the well wishes! It means a lot! :)

A couple of good storms blew through here this afternoon. True to this Summer's theme, when they're born between Pottsville and Hazleton, we get hit good. 1.61" in the gauge at last look.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty much a dry day here today for the most part unless some of the remaining storms in western PA find their way here (doubtful). I'd say a rough guesstimate was about a half inch of rain yesterday, so hopefully can score some more tomorrow. 

One other observation lately around here has been the "fall" foliage. Obviously, the drought conditions have been a pretty big catalyst but there's a lot of trees with leaves turning colors. And some are turning to reds and oranges as well. Most of the tree foliage is still green of course, but it's noticeable. I've seen mid-late September foliage less further along than what we have currently... and it isn't even September yet. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Just looked at the EC.  Shows Laura missing a possible phase like situation with a Northern Stream System and missing our Sub-Forum (as of today).  The potential course is changing so drastically each run its not worth too much discussion but until the EC shows rain I am not putting on my rain coat. 

We wouldn't necessarily need  the center of the remnant low to move through PA to see an enhanced rain potential given the approaching shortwave and trough, nor would we need a full phase or anything like that. Timing of features is fairly important as usual. If the trough progresses faster, that could cut off Laura's moisture from coming up here. Otherwise, aside from any possible direct impacts from the remnants, just drawing up the moisture laden airmass that accompanies a tropical system via southern and SW flow (from a probable landfall in the western/central Gulf coast in this case) charges up the PWAT's and you can have a heavy rain threat just from that from thunderstorm development in that airmass. A look at EC ensemble guidance this afternoon indicated pretty high PWAT's (generally 1.5-1.75") early in the weekend, which is around the time we would see anything.

Here's the EC ensemble map of PWAT percent anomalies, most of PA about 160% of normal in this timeframe.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-pwat_anom-8702400.thumb.png.ce0de80a8035d2b9d0843a7b9d081dbe.png 

That tropical airmass would also accompanied by yet another above normal regime temp wise ahead of that trough late week into the weekend. So I can already see where we could have thunderstorms develop with torrential downpours without the actual tropical system directly impacting PA. If these features time well, it could draw the remnants up and the approaching front could enhance an actual slug of organized precip.. which would be more beneficial in terms of regionwide relief from developing drought conditions. Much will probably change around this week. Laura definitely has a good shot at being a major hurricane and the main focus is where on the Gulf coast that is going to be. Most guidance has centered in that region of the TX/LA border. The 12z Euro ensemble mean was notably more west, focusing near the Galveston/Houston region. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Pretty much a dry day here today for the most part unless some of the remaining storms in western PA find their way here (doubtful). I'd say a rough guesstimate was about a half inch of rain yesterday, so hopefully can score some more tomorrow. 

One other observation lately around here has been the "fall" foliage. Obviously, the drought conditions have been a pretty big catalyst but there's a lot of trees with leaves turning colors. And some are turning to reds and oranges as well. Most of the tree foliage is still green of course, but it's noticeable. I've seen mid-late September foliage less further along than what we have currently... and it isn't even September yet. 

So the question becomes why are the leaves changing colors at this pace in August?   The drought is worse than it is being played up by NWS for some but is there something else causing it?

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

So the question becomes why are the leaves changing colors at this pace in August?   The drought is worse than it is being played up by NWS for some but is there something else causing it?

 

 

It could be related to insects sucking the chlorophyll out of the tree leaves. Fungus can also adversely affect tree leaves. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, paweather said:

I'll just take fake Snow anytime! :D

I never realized how dramatic some of the nuances are of LES - back several years ago when Buffalo got like 7' of snow in a few days, I believe that until the fluff settled and compacted they had just over half that amount still on the ground. Impressive depth, yes. But when you see the ridiculous totals coming in from up there during LE events it's good to remember that what is reported isn't what is always on the ground. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 449
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   120 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Extreme western Maryland
     Southern New York
     Central and Eastern Ohio
     Much of Pennsylvania
     Northern West Virginia

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until
     900 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will move southeast across the watch
   area this afternoon with a risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated
   reports of large hail.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
   statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of
   Athens OH to 45 miles east southeast of Binghamton NY. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

Pretty much the entire state outside of Erie/Philly

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

With due respect to Canderson's family and hoping for the best Laura getting to Cat 4 is not out of the realm of possibility at this point. 

Let's hope the current shear holds serve. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.