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Bostonseminole

SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2020

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Delta's seems to have followed the floor plan of this tropical season for failing exulted states based upon every indicator suggesting it should -... 

Finally, for the first time in the past 5 days of this this thing ...we seem to have emerged a definitive eye.   Even when this cyclone was 140 mph ... I'm sure it had an eye but you could not see it... And I mean it was not like there was an "impression" of an eye if perhaps merely obscured by clouds ...it looked like there was no 'dent' nothing... just a CDO with weird cold nodules that seemed to bifurcate where an eye would be..  

As an aside, it seems there's probably some sort of at least indirect correlation between presentation and health - heh... who knows -.. 

Anyway, it weakened without an IWR ...just for no reason, prior to making landfall on the Yuk.  Okay ...it's not like we want to kite civility along down there. But, it moves back out over 312 F water and 0 shear...  

100 mph -  ... wow, look out!  

Something is "in the air" ( ha!) mitigating this seasons...   Historic numbers held back is what is really gone.  Interesting...  Oh, I'm sure this going to be a category 9 sonic speed orbit influencer now that I've insolently questioned the motivations of the gods ... but, the damage of seasonal profile is already in the museum in my mind and this has been a weird year. 

I wonder if some of this is 'detection sensitivity' -  ...but it's hard to mention that without suggesting intent was in play - I really don't mean that. But the network of tech and human observation was simply not as sophisticate in the past ... By virtue of that, some of this could be influenced by those latter advantages.  I just a suggestion -

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DELTA Final Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/hurricane-delta-final-call.html?fbclid=IwAR3XtXWKFZZOOkT8WsFWhEtiOl1hdOB2slwf16nrv9PAHAboPEHC3mAJ73c

New Orleans looks to have dodged yet another bullet. Landfall should occur around the sparsely populated Pecan Island, LA at around midnight tomorrow night with max sustained winds between 100 and 115mph. Main threat will be surge, but thankfully once again throughout primarily marshland. While wind won't be anything likely Laura, it will not have to be, as debris from Laura is still strewn throughout the area as projectiles at the ready. Dangerous situation for this area.....AGAIN.

Hurricane DELTA Final Call.png

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https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/10/verification-of-hurricane-delta.html

Forecast for DELTA verified, as it made landfall within the high risk zone and was within the 100-115mph forecast range of intensity. Peak intensity and landfall intensity were very well forecast dating back to Monday, a full five days prior to landfall. Timing was off by five hours.

Verification.png

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it's had that for like 7 cycles now...

Buuuuut, it's that pesky 300+ hour thing that's the problem - lol ...

It does this every year... and every year, I ignore it.  The GGEM likes to do this too... But, then... Sandy happened.

Oops. 

It does have somewhat of a Sandy look to it though.   I mean ...from distant orbit, that is.  Obviously no declaration of redux or analog in saying so, but.. having a matured TC cross Cuba and entangle with the westerlies... culminating in a snow bomb over eastern Ontario like that, really in concept is not different than Sandy. It did the same exact thing - but farther S. along the MA, and I think snow was accumulating in WV when the core of the f'er was still blazin' away at 24C clear to 500 mb level.

Leaves the question out there:  could a Cat 2 "hook" left into NY Bite with a 30' storm surge due to geomorphic funneling ?   Oh... you just asked about the GFS though

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's had that for like 7 cycles now...

Buuuuut, it's that pesky 300+ hour thing that's the problem - lol ...

It does this every year... and every year, I ignore it.  The GGEM likes to do this too... But, then... Sandy happened.

Oops. 

It does have somewhat of a Sandy look to it though.   I mean ...from distant orbit, that is.  Obviously no declaration of redux or analog in saying so, but.. having a matured TC cross Cuba and entangle with the westerlies... culminating in a snow bomb over eastern Ontario like that, really in concept is not different than Sandy. It did the same exact thing - but farther S. along the MA, and I think snow was accumulating in WV when the core of the f'er was still blazin' away at 24C clear to 500 mb level.

Leaves the question out there:  could a Cat 2 "hook" left into NY Bite with a 30' storm surge due to geomorphic funneling ?   Oh... you just asked about the GFS though

It’s 2020...so anything is possible this year. Cat 2 hooking left into NYC ain’t nothing for 2020 lol. 

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7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's had that for like 7 cycles now...

Buuuuut, it's that pesky 300+ hour thing that's the problem - lol ...

It does this every year... and every year, I ignore it.  The GGEM likes to do this too... But, then... Sandy happened.

Oops. 

It does have somewhat of a Sandy look to it though.   I mean ...from distant orbit, that is.  Obviously no declaration of redux or analog in saying so, but.. having a matured TC cross Cuba and entangle with the westerlies... culminating in a snow bomb over eastern Ontario like that, really in concept is not different than Sandy. It did the same exact thing - but farther S. along the MA, and I think snow was accumulating in WV when the core of the f'er was still blazin' away at 24C clear to 500 mb level.

Leaves the question out there:  could a Cat 2 "hook" left into NY Bite with a 30' storm surge due to geomorphic funneling ?   Oh... you just asked about the GFS though

lol it showed up again in 18z but crossing cuba and heading nne but then the trough gets close and pulls her back a frame then scoots ne out of here......but she there....

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10 hours ago, ice1972 said:

lol it showed up again in 18z but crossing cuba and heading nne but then the trough gets close and pulls her back a frame then scoots ne out of here......but she there....

Consistent little bugger. Let's see if it can ever get inside day 10.

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15 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s 2020...so anything is possible this year. Cat 2 hooking left into NYC ain’t nothing for 2020 lol. 

Hooks into NYC drifts south to the gulf of mexico, reforms and strengthens to a Cat 5  ends as  a   snowcane for NE......

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Signal for a system is there for sure but it’s always a long shot up here. Second climo peak is coming soon so that helps. 

Tropical activity has an increasingly uphill battle as OHC declines and continental dry air intrusions into the homebrew region increase. Not to mention shearing from troughs.

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3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

6z Fantasy GFS  but this storm would be massive  if only this would pan out and come 200 miles west in the later frames

Screenshot_20201013-070406_Samsung Internet.jpg

Not very blocky, but I suppose if you were to dig that system in the Lakes a little earlier...maybe?

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Just now, ineedsnow said:

Cmc has it but weak.. just east of Florida  at hr240

it appears to be keying on general pan-wide systemic/numerical instabilities that exists through those lower latitudes of the SW Atlantic Basin - I was discussing similarly ..it's seems to be a recurrent Autumnal right of passage.   But in those specifics, the timing is way off between it and the GFS, the latter which doesn't even have its entity focused until 300+ hours; contrasting, the CMC is days ahead with an inverted trough over the whole breadth of the expanse and some paltry commitment to a TC ...

The take-away is a period of development potential over all of the western Caribbean, Gulf and adjacent to Florida as the primary concern for now.  

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